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Kidane Asmerom and Teh wei-Hu

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1 Kidane Asmerom and Teh wei-Hu
The Demand for Cigarette in Tanzania and its Implication on Tobacco Taxation Policy Presented by Ngeh Ernest Tingum Co-authors: Kidane Asmerom and Teh wei-Hu

2 Background Tobacco production and cigarette consumption ... one of the major health issues in the world and Tanzania not an exception 2012 estimates (WHO, 2012) 6 million deaths yearly 8 million by 2030 tobacco prevalence in Tanzania 25 to 64 years is 23%. 13 to 15 years Male 3.8% Female 0.4% EA region Male 29% Female 4 %

3 Smoking causes huge economic burden to the society; especially for a developing African country such as Tanzania to control diseases and death from tobacco use Tanzania signed a pact to control tobacco production and cigarette consumption in However, government role not effective to date. One of the most effective ways of controlling the high rate of cigarette consumption is to raise tobacco excise taxes (Chaloupka et al., 2000). increasing excise tax on tobacco...not only reduce consumption but may also help generate more revenue (WHO, 2010). Higher cigarette prices...reduce or quit smoking as well as initiation rate.

4 Objectives of the study
estimate the demand function (elasticities) impact of excise tax on cigarette smoking participation rate and on the amount of consumption among smokers simulation exercises on the impact of various excise tax rates on tax burden and on government revenue

5 Brief Empirical Literature Review
The price of cigarette has proven to be one of the major determinants of tobacco consumption using both time series and cross section data (Chaloupka and Warner, 1999; Berg and Kaempfer, 2001; Nasser, 2003 and WHO, 2010) Price changes affect affordability through limited income; it also affects decision on whether smoke or not most common form of cigarette tax is the ad volerum tax levied on packs of cigarette The rationale for using this form of tax is that incurs low administrative costs (WHO, 2010) smoking participation elasticity ranges from for the poor to to the high income group suggesting that the poor react more to price changes

6 Methodology and models Specifications
Two part model (Hu et al, 1995; Mao et al., 2007) Equation 1: smoking participation equation Equation 2: smoking intensity equation is a binary variable which equals 1 if person currently smokes and 0 otherwise probability that person currently smokes cigarettes smoked per month conditional upon smoking for person is the regional price of cigarettes faced by person is a vector of other explanatory variables including gender, age, education, residence, annual income proxied by expenditure are random error terms.

7 The overall demand for cigarette for person i is given as follows
Total price elasticity of the overall demand for cigarettes is obtained as is the total elasticity is the price elasticity of smoking participation the price elasticity of smoking intensity conditional upon current smokers the population mean of current smoking prevalence price coefficient in Equation 1 and is the price coefficient in Eqn 2

8 Data Description and Summary Statistics
Tanzanian household survey (Tanzania 2008).

9 The overall mean price per stick is 63.36 Tshs.
The estimated mean price among the high expenditure is the highest (67.18) smoking prevalence rate is percent. Highest among the low income group (16.40) The smoking intensity is 7.08 sticks of cigarettes per day. Highest among the poor (7.81) Per capita expenditure is estimated to be 1.33 sticks per day.

10 Effect of price on smoking participation and intensity
Two part model - the participation which is based on the Logit model (eqn 3) and the intensity which is based on OLS (eqn 4). *, ** and *** indicate significance at 10%, 5% and 1% respectively.

11 Total elasticity An estimate of total elasticity is based on equation 4 The std error of the total elasticity (eqn 5) is also estimated which enable to estimate CI Total price elasticity for all income groups is Thus, a 10% increase in the price of cigarette leads to a 17.32% decrease in per capita cigarette consumption For the poor, a 10% increase in the price will lead to a 6.69 percent decrease low income group appear to respond less to price changes than the high group

12 Effect of tax increase on the number of smokers, on cigarette consumption and tax revenues
smoking prevalence rate before tax increase while per capita consumption was 1.33 cigarettes per day or packs per year Total cigarette consumption is 80.8 million packs per year , tax revenue of billion Tshs using at adult Tanzanian population of 22 millions and adult smokers of 3.33 million (WHO, 2012).

13 Imposing a 10 percent increase in the price per pack
Increase in cigarette tax price per pack will be Tanzanian shillings smoking prevalence will be reduced to per capita consumption will be reduced to 20.06, total number of adult smokers will be reduced to 3.28 million total annual cigarette consumption will be reduced to 65.8 million and tax revenue will increase to billion shillings the number of smokers will be reduced by 0.05 million (50,000) Cigarette consumption will be reduced by 4.21 million packs and total tax revenue will increase by 1.37 billion Shillings changes are substantial as the tax rate moves from 5 percent to 10 percent compared to the movement from 15 to 20 percent

14 Changes in Cigarette Consumption and tax burden by expenditure groups
The pre tax estimates are based on the prevailing tax rate of percent The overall current cigarette tax rate per pack is shillings per pack. The corresponding tax for the poor is shillings and systematically increases across the expenditure/income groups

15 Conclusion adult cigarette smoking prevalence rate of Tanzania which is 15.75% as being lower than the national averages of other countries little variability among the four expenditure groups The prevailing excise tax rate on the price of cigarette is only 36.67% much lower than the 70.0% rate suggested by WHO In spite, cigarette smoking participation as well as the tobacco intensity estimates show that Tanzanians tend to react to cigarette price increase in the desired direction The elasticity coefficients appear to be much higher than the corresponding values in Egypt, South Africa and China.

16 Based on the simulation results;
an increase in tax rates will have a modest reduction on the number of smokers But a substantial decrease in annual cigarette consumption as well as increase in tax revenue Consumers’ response to tax increase appears to show much variability when estimated by expenditure groups As expend increases, tax rate per pack also increases. high expend groups appear to smoke high priced cigarettes However, the tax burden seems to be high for the poor

17 United States National Institute of Health
THANKS YOU Study supported by United States National Institute of Health

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