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Part Four Physical & Social Erosion Globalization The Metropolitan Area Declining Birth Rates [Agents of Transformation]

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Presentation on theme: "Part Four Physical & Social Erosion Globalization The Metropolitan Area Declining Birth Rates [Agents of Transformation]"— Presentation transcript:

1 Part Four Physical & Social Erosion Globalization The Metropolitan Area Declining Birth Rates [Agents of Transformation]

2 Agents of Transformation Crumbling Towns The Underlying Forces of Rural Change – Emerging Behavior in Persistently Declining Communities

3 Transforming Experience I once woke up and thought that I was dead, but then I realized that I was in Nebraska Clint Eastwood

4 A Matter of Perspective Dangerous Missouri Building – 87 years old Vibrant Town Center of Haddington, Scotland – 570 years old

5 100 Years of Use, But 50 Years of Neglect

6 Our basic stock of commercial and industrial buildings create wealth in the form of tax transfers on property and at the point of sale.

7 The highway still may wind through country towns, but these have been struck with "rural blight': shuttered Main Street businesses and crumbling buildings. Homemade cobbler or fresh peaches are nowhere to be found, though you might be able to pick up a bag of Oreos at a tiny gas pump/convenience store. The towns seem on the verge of disappearance. Few would regret leaving this landscape. Ron “Doc” Postun

8 The brick towns of the Great Plains are the agents of their own destruction The bricks were quick fired and lose their compression strength at the point of contract with the foundation The typical Great Plains town is now 120 years old About 70% of CBD buildings are owned by absentee landlords About 20% are abandoned Marginal Restoration = $275,000+ which is about $50 per sq. ft.

9 Restoration is still possible, but now almost totally relegated to the private market after withdrawal of block grants

10 We expend, on the average, about 18 percent on our total tax take on infrastructure & repair Three general periods when our existing infrastructure was installed – –1919 – 1929 –1947 – 1966 –1976 – 1984 To replace our current infrastructure by 2040 for 454 million people will require at least 32 percent of our tax take

11 In Other Words

12 Agents of Transformation Emergent Globalization Globalization Is An Emerging Set of Goals, Policies, and Applications Designed To Increase The Wealth Of Local, Regional, And Sub-National Areas Globalization Is An Emerging Set of Goals, Policies, and Applications Designed To Increase The Wealth Of Local, Regional, And Sub-National Areas

13 Sovereignty, Globalization Outsourcing & Tax –The “vanishing taxpayer” – harmonizing global taxes –The terrible economic cost to the developing world compliments of the World Bank –Cheap labor, cheaper goods and the race to the bottom are the flip side of globalization –The bottom line is that wage earners, will be privatized to compete with the self- employed

14 Please note that globalization may not increase your wealth, but like democracy itself – you can be assured that you will get what you deserve!

15 The most noticeable immediate impact of globalization is The New Economy. This refers to the idea that the broad application of information technology throughout the globe has altered the rules previously thought to govern the business cycle, investment, knowledge transfer and economic development strategy New Economy

16 800 – 950 teraflops per second @ 31 GHz 1970 1986 1990 2005 2015 200 – 274 Mbps DSN4 @ 3.5 GHz Arpanet/Internet/Internet II Backbone Speeds 56 Kbps @ 16 MHz 300 bps @ 1 MHz 15 Mbps @ 66 MHz 2.33 – 2.67 THz

17 Rigging the Market For our rural communities to stay with the curve in the new economy, they must “rig” the market by: Jobs creation Connecting to the backbone Public/private partnerships

18 Creating Image We must create a new image of ourselves – no more Dorothy & TOTO

19 Born of New Ideas New Synergies and Models for the 21 st Century Globalism

20 Changing economic forces at the global level will create a new layer of stress on the fight for local resources The pressure to replace infra- structure will reach a critical cycle from 2016 – 2030 as the 1955 interstate highway disintegrates Declining infrastructure means less tax revenue We all sit at the same trough when it comes to tax revenue

21 Metropolitan Forces Implosion and Expansion Def – One or more counties with an urban area of 50,000 population or more; or, a place that comprises a component economic area of 50,000 persons or more

22 Percent of Total World Population Living Rural Tipping point came in 2005 when the world went 51% metropolitan 49 percent rural

23 Our Global Village 2050 Asians Africans Latin Americans Eastern Europe. North Americans Aus./N.Z. Russian Federation West Europe 584 124 84 67 55 52 6 28

24 The Metro Engine Since 1970

25 World Metropolitan Agglomeration

26 NASA – Composite of 2,204 pictures from Hubble Telescope with light enhancement 102%

27 Growth % Land Use Tokyo- Yokohama 31.7 million2030 sq mi New York Region30.2 million4445 sq mi Buenos Aires11.2 million1070 sq mi Philadelphia5.1 million1799 sq miles Cairo12.2 million1186 sq. miles Jakarta17 million1000 sq. miles Mexico City17.2 million570 sq. miles

28 Atlanta v. Mexico City Mexico City Metro 17.2 million 570 sq. miles 10 year level annualized cost differential for service & infrastructure 708 billion Atlanta Metro 3.9 million 1963 sq, miles

29 Superermetro In 2003, United Nations’ Census Estimates Would Indicate That 10 Supermetros Are 15 million persons or larger What are the top five? When will we see the first 50 million person metro?

30 World’Largest Tokyo – Yokohama = 31.2 million New York Urban Region = 30.286 million Mexico City Urban Region = 23.9 million Seoul Urban Agglomeration = 22.1 million Sao Paulo Urban Region = 20.3 million Mumbia (Bombay) could be larger In 1996 the first Supermetro passed 30 million. The first 50 million Megametro is expected to occur in 2029 -

31 Rural v Metro Growth 2060 Bureau of Census, Middle Projection Series - 2060

32 Growth in the USA U.S. Population in 1950 162. million World Population 1950 2.550 billion U.S. Population in 2050 419 million World Population 2050 9.190 billion

33 Compared to China Watch these age groups

34 The Non-Metro Side

35 Basic American Rural Demography A vital piece of American Seventy-nine percent of our land mass Home to 24 million people A striking combination of the best and the worst America has to offer

36  Over I million 10 . 5 to 1 Million 14 .25 to.499 Million 42 .1 to.249 Million 153  50,000 to 99,999 347  25,000 to 49,999 597  10,000 to 24,999 1,366  Under 10,000 16,808  Under 5,000 12,345  Under 1,000 7,842 United States Of America All census counting places 2003 estimated: 19,335 places There are 53 metropolitan areas in the U.S. larger than 1,000,000 persons

37 Non-Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties 2004

38 County Typologies Non-Metro in 1990 & 2000 (2007 counties) Non-Metro to Metro 1990 – 2000 (298) Metro to Non-Metro 1990 – 2000 (45) Metro in 1990 & 2000 (791 counties)

39 Farm Dependent Counties 1950 2000 2020

40 Really, Really Rural These two colors are not good

41 The Heartland

42 Shifting Population Core 1990 - 2000 Red = 8% increase of more Yellow = 1 – 7 percent White = little change or decline

43 Percent Change in K-12 Students 1990 - 2000 Green is Bad Kusler & Schwartbeck - 2004

44 Growth Patterns 1950 - 2000 Dark purple represents continuous decline

45 Quick Facts There are 3141 County census counting areas 2398 gained population, but the gain in 400 of these counties is marginal 1743 lost population About 600 counties lost less than 2% of their population About 400 counties lost 10% or more 60% of the entire loss came from the Great Plains/West States Gained Lost Little Change

46 The Twilight Zones

47 Frontier Counties of the U.S. With Less Than 6 persons sq. mile

48 Frontier County Demographics

49 Rural Counties of the U.S.

50 U.S. Rapid Growing Counties 20 counties increased population from 75 to 181 percent 1990 – 2000 8 are in Colorado; 2 in Nevada 4 are in Georgia; 1 in Virginia 2 in Texas; 2 in Utah; 1 in Idaho

51 Student Enrollment in Rural Counties The states with the highest percentages of rural schools with declining enrollments were Louisiana, Idaho, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming. The spiraling cost of health insurance is yet another factor in rural school closures One district planned on a 9% increase and was hit with a 26% increase

52 K-12 School Distribution Nearly 60 percent of the nation's school districts are rural, but they teach only 20 percent of the total student population, according to the U.S. Department of EducationU.S. Department of Education 60% 40% 0% UrbanRural

53 The Bottom Line Forecast – If business as usual continues 411 counties will require consolidation 339 counties will be in severe stress 86 counties will have moderate stress 1,469 counties will be in fat city 836 solid counties metro

54 And What Are the Measures of Stress Median Age over 41 years Median Age over 45 years Ratio of 13 – 17 year olds to the # of children aged 0 12 years Raw birth rate approaching 1.8/1,000 Median family income more than -1.7 S deviations from state mean Population loss for 4 consecutive decades Population loss greater than 50 percent 1920 - 2000

55 Sounds Bad? The U.S. is actually in pretty good shape 41.1 percent less population

56 Europe is Rapidly Changing EUROPE AS A WHOLE WILL PROBABLY LOSE ABOUT 20 MILLION PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS Two counter forces combine to place stress on a global rural population –Population change through growth which favors the metropolitan place –Population change in demographics

57 In March, 2005 There Are 6.71 Billion People It is a time for choices

58 The Population Clock 236,012 persons were born today236,012 persons were born today 98,603 persons will die today98,603 persons will die today

59 Projected World Population to 2050

60 Implosion

61 Italy is in Free Fall Population Loss in Italy Approx. 28% by 2040.9809 fertility rate to reduce to.8997 by 2040

62 Similar Situations Spain Severe Decline Albania Severe Decline Czech Rep. Decline Austria Decline Poland Severe Decline Greece Decline Romania Significant Decline

63 Conclusions Boom and bust according to the standard scenario Will occur from about 2000 – 2050 European economies will be even more dependent on guest workers


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