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1. Introduction Paradox: stunning new technologies for observing the subpolar ocean and its impact on global climate yet a bewildering set of questions.

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Presentation on theme: "1. Introduction Paradox: stunning new technologies for observing the subpolar ocean and its impact on global climate yet a bewildering set of questions."— Presentation transcript:

1 1. Introduction Paradox: stunning new technologies for observing the subpolar ocean and its impact on global climate yet a bewildering set of questions and an accelerating pace of high-latitude climate change. Paradox: stunning new technologies for observing the subpolar ocean and its impact on global climate yet a bewildering set of questions and an accelerating pace of high-latitude climate change. Given the limits to new resources, can one now design a pattern of observations ensuring that the most important dynamical trends will in fact be observed in the coming several decades? Given the limits to new resources, can one now design a pattern of observations ensuring that the most important dynamical trends will in fact be observed in the coming several decades? ‘Generalizing the ocean weather ship’ ‘Generalizing the ocean weather ship’ ‘restarting ASOF’ ‘restarting ASOF’

2 Yashayaev & Loder GRL 2008 see also, Våge et al. 2008

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4 LSW contributes 56% of the CFC-11 inventory and 72% of the volume flux in NADW (….heat flux, freshwater flux) inventory 10 6 moles formation rate inventory 10 6 moles formation rate total NAtl 20N-42N total NAtl 20N-42N EDW Sverdrups ULSW CLSW ISOW DSOW ____ ____ Sv Lebel et al. DSR 2008 Yet direct physical measurments seem to give Yet direct physical measurments seem to give far lower LSW transformation rates (2 Sv, Pickart & Spall JPO 2007) Similar disagreements occur in climate models and high-resolution Similar disagreements occur in climate models and high-resolution ocean models. NADW

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6 Monday, 10 November: Main Auditorium, BIO Session 1: Workshop Goals and Background 0830:Welcome and Introductions (10 min) – John Loder (BIO) 0840:Workshop Goals and Structure (10 min) – Peter Rhines (UW) 0855:NOAA Perspective (12 min) – John Calder (NOAA) 0910:Overview of DFO Ocean Monitoring and Climate Programs (10 min) – John Loder Session 2: Recent Advances, Key Issues and Planned Programs 0925:IFM Germany Programs (12 min) – Jurgen Fischer 0940:Univ. Bremen Programs (12 min) – Monika Rhein 0955:Inst Sea Fisheries, Hamburg (10 min) – Manfred Stein (given by Eugene Colbourne) 1005:Denmark Meteorological Institute (15 min) – Steffen Olsen :Refreshment Break Session 2 (continued): Advances, Issues and Programs 1045:Influence of the eastern overflows on the Labrador Sea and the AMOC (12 min) – Bogi Hansen (Faroese Fisheries Lab) 1100:Circulation variability and pathways in the subpolar North Atlantic (10 min) – Peter Rhines 1130:Univ Washington in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait (10 min) – Craig Lee 1145:Outflows from Baffin Bay (and Archipelago) (10 min) - Brian Petrie (BIO) 1200:BIO Lab Sea and Downstream Physical Oceanography (12 min) – Igor Yashayaev (BIO) :Lunch Break 2

7 Monday, 10 November: Main Auditorium, BIO Session 2 (continued): Advances, Issues and Programs 1315:Hydrographic Variability in the NW Atlantic (12 min) – Bob Pickart (WHOI) 1330:Buoyant eddies entering the Labrador Sea, observed with gliders, floats and altimetry (12 min) – Hjalmar Hatun (Faroese FL) 1345:Role of Eddies in the Lab Sea Region (10 min) – Jonathan Lilly (ESP) 1400:Drifters and Exit Pathways in the Lab Sea Region (12 min) – Amy Bower (WHOI) 1415:Tracer Pathways from the Arctic through the NW Atlantic (10 min) – John Smith (BIO) 1430:CO2 and Related Issues in the NW Atlantic (10 min) – Kumiko Azetsu-Scott (BIO) 1445:Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf/Slope Variability from DFO Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program (10 min) – Eugene Colbourne (NAFC) :Refreshment Break Session 2 (continued): Advances, Issues and Programs 1520:Subpolar Gyre influences on NW Atlantic Shelves (10 min) – Brian Petrie 1535:BIO on Lab Sea Biology, Shelf Linkages and ESSAS (15 min) – Erica Head (BIO) 1555:NOAA on Linkages to the AMOC (12 min) – Molly Baringer (NOAA) 1610:POL on RAPID-WATCH (10 min) – Miguel Angel Morales Maqueda (POL) 1625:Observations on Line W (10 min) – Ruth Curry (WHOI) 1640:Discussion 3

8 Monday, 10 November: Main Auditorium, BIO Session 3: Key Issues and Potential Elements for a Sustained Observation Program 1645:Strawdog Outline from a Dynamical/Process Perspective (5-10 min) – Peter Rhines Climate Change Perspective (5-10 min) – Allyn Clarke Ecosystem Perspective (5-10 min) – Glen Harrison 1715:General Discussion and Plan for Day :End of Day 1 Sessions 1815:Cash bar in Harbourside Terrace at Holiday Inn 1915:Complimentary Buffet Dinner in Harbourside Terrace at Holiday Inn 4

9 Tuesday, 11 November: Hawthorne Room, Holiday Inn Harbourview Session 4: Discussion and Planning : Review of Workshop Objectives and Scientific Topics Discussion of Scientific Topics and Questions Discussion of Relative Importance of Processes :Refreshment Break Session 4 (continued) : Discussion of Scientific Topics, Questions and Processes :Remembrance Day :Discussion of Scientific Issues, Approaches and Opportunities :Discussion of Workshop Outputs and Planning Approach for PM - Report on Findings - Outline of Desirable Program(s) :Lunch Break Session 5: :Development of Workshop Outputs :Refreshment Break :Development of Workshop Outputs 1600: Conclude Workshop :Steering Committee Meeting 5

10 John Calder questions: John Calder questions: 1. Is there scientific merit in quantifying deep water formation in the Labrador Sea over climate-relevant time scales? Why? 2. How should such an observation program be implemented? What are the key variables and effective observation strategies? 3. Are there unknowns or uncertainties that must be clarified before a long-term observation effort should be started? Secondary questions would be: 4. How could fresh water influx to the Labrador Sea be quantified, and how could its effect on deep water formation be determined? 5. How could the ecological impact of physical changes in the Labrador Sea and adjacent areas be determined? We could also use the presentations on day 1 to identify other key questions for discussion on day 2.


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