Presentation on theme: "1 Gloucester Community Development Corporation. 2 Challenges “You cannot build a model without a good understanding of the system you are going to simulate…”"— Presentation transcript:
1 Gloucester Community Development Corporation
2 Challenges “You cannot build a model without a good understanding of the system you are going to simulate…” Jim Hines 2002
3 Purpose of Today’s Presentation Share some insights in using SD for client projects Ask you for a peer-group review, i.e. which part of the following presentation could lead into a publishable paper?
4 The Team Our Client: Dr. Carmine Gorga, Executive Director GCDC Dr. Steve Kelleher, Marine Institute Massachusetts Dr. Damon Cummings, a former Professor of hydrodynamics and control theory at MIT Joe Sinagra, Fishermen MIT: Jeroen Struben, PhD Student MIT SangHyun Lee, M.S Student Intelligent Engineering MIT Peter Otto, PhD Student UAlbany
5 Introduction to the Project A Step-by-step approach towards a model –Decomposition of the system –Reflection of current situation and Problem Definition –Key Variables Scope and understanding –Dynamic Hypotheses –Overview on the different Sectors Model initiation: building one Dynamic hypothesis –Model Components –Base model Behavior Agenda
6 Gloucester’s Business Goal T To establish a commercialized fisheries operation Gloucester Fish, Inc. that utilizes a novel process that extracts fairly pure protein from underutilized fish species to potentially increase their value in an effort to revitalize the present fishing industry in Gloucester.
7 Surimi? A substitute for crab meat….
8 Surimi Market Total market: 760,000 metric tons, growing at 10 – 20% per year Japan represents 60 % of the market Desired output for Gloucester’s surimi factory is 10,000 metric tons
9 Phase 1: Learning Fishing fleet # Fishermen # boats needed for Surimi Total # boats Attractiveness of other fishing targets Total fishing capacity Willingness to join Earnings per Fisherman Area utilization Effectiveness Total catch Cost per trip Equipment extension cost Resources Water availability Water costs per unit Water pollution Perceived fish stocks Actual fish stocks Sustainable Yield Community concerns Demand Potential market-size Product attractiveness Unit price Product characteristics Marketability Product quality (grade) Product diversity Unit costs Competition Barriers to entry Number of competing ports Total competing capacity Accessibility of cross waters Launch and operate Desired capacity Startup costs Total Capacity Extendibility Marketing efforts Total labor provision FDA approval time Total Sales Diversification Profitability Finance and Community,.. Total value added Directional Private investor fraction Risk of disintegration Employee involvement Reinvestment fraction Government taxes Community acceptance
10 Phase 2: Reflection Meeting with client to confirm problem statement and initial reference modes
11 Problem Statement “Objective” The decline of traditional fish species and the curtailing of fishing efforts by the Government require the fishing industry of Gloucester to identify alternative resources to sustain their industry… …A Surimi factory – harvesting fast renewable fish stock – should compensate for the missing revenues from traditional white fish until their stock returns to a sustainable level…
12 Dynamics of “Total Potential for harvesting” is defined by the combined availability of and capacity for dark and white fish Revenues from Surimi t Revenues from White Fish 1996200220052012 Total Revenues Problem recognition … a response to a downward spiral…
13 Sustainability of Community depends on total revenues, stability, spread of revenues Community QoL H: Enough renewable resources (both white and dark) Reinvestment in plant Rising stability reinforces happiness F2: Lack of throughput No Market Delays in takeoff Competition from other communities or Fish stock takes longer to renew t 199220022012 F1: Too much success Increasing revenues, Increasing competition, Stock depletion, Unequal/unfair profits Problem Statement
14 Key Variables Resource Sector Fleet Composition Total allowable Catch (TAC) # Fleet Days at Sea Community Sector Revenues from Fishing Sustainability of community Attractiveness to Join Co-operation Operations Sector Potential Factory Output Potential Demand Potential Return on Investment Key Variables
15 Phase 3: Agreement Presentation of dynamic hypothesis Definition for the scope of the project
16 Potential factory output t Potential Factory output: The potential factory output should be determined by the availability of fish stock. Pushing the system based on the attractiveness will finally limit the factory output. Dynamic Hypothesis
17 Revenues per boat t Revenues per boat: If operating profit of the factory is positive, it can reinvest in equipment and processing capabilities to increase attractiveness and effectiveness, which could cause too much pressure on the fish stocks. Operating profit Dynamic Hypothesis
18 Total Revenues from fishing t 199220022012 R4 B2 R1-3 B1 B3/R5*) Revenues from fishing: Revenues can go up and remain high at sufficient re-investment in the plant, in order to maintain diversity in input and output. External partners might lead to high volume low quality through put Dynamic Hypothesis
19 Sustainability of Community: Too much success of the plant, can bring some revenues, while many have to fish for the low-stock white fish Dynamic Hypothesis Community QoL t 1992 2002 2012 R1 B1 B2 R2
20 Phase 4: Conceptualizing the model First draft was presented to the client to: –Confirm the causal loop diagram –Focus on sensitive variables and parameters –Re-define scope of the model
21 The Dynamic Hypotheses around the key variables have been merged into three sectors Resource Sector Community Sector Operations Sector Variables and links in Dynamic hypotheses themselves, generally cover more sectors!!
22 Resource Sector
23 Community Sector
24 Operations Sector
25 We have used the “Potential Factory Output” hypothesis as a starting point for the model The model of the hypothesis is built up of three main loops: Factory Capacity and Output Fleet Capacity Resource Dynamics Other hypotheses will be constructed on top of this
26 Potential factory output t Potential Factory output: The potential factory output should be determined by the availability of fish stock. Pushing the system based on the attractiveness will finally limit the factory output. Dynamic Hypothesis
30 Basic model Behavior 1.Basic Demand –Step demand increase towards 15000 Surimi in the 10 th month 2.Resource Depletion –Same case, with a lower fertility of pelagis
31 Basic Demand: Factory Capacity
32 Basic Demand: Pelagic Throughput
33 Basic Demand: Resource Dynamics
34 Dynamics can be very sensitive to resource parameters Lower Resource Fertility: Resource Depletion
35 Learning’s along the way Insights A clear problem statement can act itself as true insight Quote :“ Opportunities for inshore fishing?!” Quote : “Looking ahead to understand potential pitfalls has never been done before” Quote: “Visualizing the connections between the variables helped us to better understand the dynamics in the system” Comments / Issues A clear, true problem statement is crucial. This implies effective kick- off meeting(s) and being in the driver-seat Early involvement of true- stakeholders / knowledge experts is crucial for a good (mental) model Using reference modes and causal loop diagrams makes it much easier for the client to understand the problems and dynamics
36 Your Task Which part of this project would be of interest for a broader SD community, i.e. do you think we could hit a placement in the SD Review?