3Nominal Interest Rates Nominal interest rates on 3-mo. Treasury Bills were about 1% in the fifties. In the eighties they were 15%. At the end of 2000, they were above 6%; in the middle of 2003, they were 1%.What is the explanation for these interest rate fluctuations?The explanation for “the” nominal interest rate should apply to all nominal rates since interest rates usually move together.
4Determinants of Asset Demand The higher the wealth of an individual, the higher will be her demand for assets, both financial and real.The higher the expected return from an asset compared to other assets, the higher the demand for that asset.The riskier an asset is, the less there will be a demand for it.The more liquid an asset is, the higher the demand will be.
5Bond Price and Interest Rate Bond prices and interest rates are always inversely related.A discount bond that matures a year from now and priced at $900 carries an interest rate of ( )/900=11.1%.A discount bond that matures a year from now and priced at $800 carries an interest rate of ( )/800=25%.A console that pays $100 per year and sells for $1000 carries an interest rate of 10%.The same console when sold at $1250 carries an interest rate of 8%.
6Demand for BondsIn boom times wealth (and income) rise. Demand for bonds will rise, too. During recessions demand for bonds will fall.If interest rates in the future are expected to fall, long-term bonds will have capital gains and increased returns, raising the demand for bonds.If the prices of bonds become more volatile, the demand for bonds will fall.If bonds became more liquid relative to other assets, the demand for bonds will increase.
7Measuring Demand for Bonds Typical demand curve would have price of bonds on the vertical axis and quantity of bonds on the horizontal axis.If bonds were the only form for funds to be raised, then those who demand to purchase bonds are the ones who supply funds.Demand for bonds is mirror image of supply of loanable funds.
8Bond Price and Interest Rate 25%$800$90011.1%11.1%$90025%$800Quantityof bondsLoanablefundsAn increase in the demand for bonds is the same as an increasein the supply of loanable funds.
9Demand and SupplyAs the price of bonds falls, lender-savers will want to buy more: demand is downward sloping.As the interest rate rises, lender-savers will want to supply more funds into the market: supply of loanable funds is upward sloping.
10Demand and SupplyAs the price of bonds falls, borrower-investors will be more reluctant to issue bonds: the supply of bonds will be upward sloping.As the interest rate rises, borrower-investors will be more reluctant to borrow: demand for loanable funds will be downward sloping.
11Shifts in the Demand for Bonds Wealth: in an expansion with growing wealth, the demand curve for bonds shifts to the rightExpected Returns: higher expected interest rates in the future lower the expected return for long-term bonds, shifting the demand curve to the leftExpected Inflation: an increase in the expected rate of inflations lowers the expected return for bonds, causing the demand curve to shift to the leftRisk: an increase in the riskiness of bonds causes the demand curve to shift to the leftLiquidity: increased liquidity of bonds results in the demand curve shifting right
12Supply of BondsIncreased confidence of producers means higher expected profits: they tend to borrow more.Increase supply of bonds = Increase demand for loanable fundsA rise in the expected inflation, given nominal interest rates, would lower the cost of borrowing (real interest rate).Higher government deficits are financed by government borrowing.
13Impact on Interest Rates of a Sudden Increase in the Volatility of Gold Prices Gold becomes ariskier asset. Bondsbecome relativelyattractive. Demand forbonds increases. Priceof bonds rise and interestrate falls.PPQ of bonds
14Impact on Interest Rates When Real Estate Prices Are Expected to Rise The expected returns from realestate increases. Bonds becomeless attractive; demand drops.Price of bonds fall and interestrates rise.PiPiQuantity of bonds
15Impact on Interest Rates When Recession Occurs During recessions, investmentopportunities dry up. Businessesscrap expansion plans. Newbonds are not issued. Supply ofbonds falls. The wealth effectof the recession will reduce thedemand for bonds, too. The netresult is increase in the price ofbonds and decrease in the interestrates.PiPi
17Impact on Interest Rates When Expected Inflation Falls the expected return on bondsrises: bondholders expectcapital gains. Demand shiftsto the right. On the other hand,at a given nominal interest rate,the fall in expected inflationraises the real interest rate. Thecost of borrowing increases,lowering the supply of bonds.Price rises, interest rate falls.PiPiQ of bonds
18Expected Inflation and Interest Rates (Three-Month Treasury Bills), 1953–2008 Source: Expected inflation calculated using procedures outlined in Frederic S. Mishkin, “The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 15 (1981): 151–200. These procedures involve estimating expected inflation as a function of past interest rates, inflation, and time trends.
19Japan Japan experienced a prolonged recession for two decades. Demand and supply of bonds both fell, raising the price of bonds and lowering the interest rate.Prolonged recession created deflation, making the expected return on real assets negative.Money (cash) became more desirable. Bonds less desirable than money but still preferable to real assets.Interest rates in Japan were close to zero.
20Response to a Business Cycle Expansion If this depiction is true,what should we seehappen to interestrates?
22Impact on Interest Rates When U. S Impact on Interest Rates When U.S. Started To Retire Long-Term Debt in 1999iPThe announcement that theTreasury will buy back 30-yrbonds raised the price of thesebonds and reduced the interestrate on these bonds. As a result,the yield curve turned down atthe long-term maturity end.Pi
23Impact of Low Savings on Interest Rates US personal savings rate (Personal income - Consumption) was at all time low inLow savings imply shrinking of lender-saver funds.As loanable funds shrink the demand for bonds falls.The price of bonds falls and interest rate rises.
24Liquidity Preference Framework We have seen that interest rates can be determined using the equilibrium in the bond market or its mirror image, loanable funds market.Those who buy bonds are the ones who loan funds and those who sell bonds are the ones who borrow.If bonds and money are the two categories of assets people use to store wealth, then equilibrium in bond market will imply equilibrium in the market for money.
25How To Divide Assets Into Money and Bonds CurrencyDemand depositsBondsSavings depositsTime depositsStocks
26Equilibrium in Bond Market = Equilibrium in Money Market Total supply of wealth has to equal to total demand for wealth:Ms + Bs = Md + BdIf the bond market is in equilibrium, Bs = Bd.Therefore, the market for money must be in equilibrium, Ms = Md.
27Bond vs. Money MarketEquilibrium in the bond market determines bond prices and interest rates, since each bond price is associated with a unique interest rate.Equilibrium in the market for money also determines the interest rate.The approaches are interchangeable, though the effects of some variable changes are easier to observe in one approach over the other.
28Liquidity Preference Why do people want to hold money? To conduct purchases; for transaction purposes.Keynesian definition of money concentrates on the medium of exchange function and assumes that the return on money is zero.What makes people to hold more money?Income increases.Price level increases.Interest rate drops.Opportunity cost of holding money drops.
29Liquidity Preference = Md The demand for money is drawn with interest rate on the vertical axis and quantity of money on the horizontal axis.The higher the interest rate, the higher is the opportunity cost of holding money, and the lower is the amount of money held.The demand for money becomes a downward sloping curve, a typical demand curve.Increases in income and/or the price level shift the curve to the right.
30Equilibrium in the Market for Money For the time being, we will assume that the supply of money is determined by the monetary authority, the central bank.Equilibrium between supply and demand for money takes place at a unique interest rate.If at a given interest rate, Md > Ms, then people will sell bonds to convert them to cash. Bond prices will go down. Interest rates will go up, reducing Md.If Md<Ms, people will convert money into bonds. The price of bonds will go up, lowering the interest rate until Md=Ms.
31Impact of an Increase In Income (Business Boom) on Interest Rates Q of bonds
32Impact on Interest Rates of an Increase in the Price Level Q of bondsPrice level increase forces people to hold more moneyto make the same purchases. The adjustment in theliquidity preference framework comes about as peoplesell their bonds and keep cash. In the bond market, thesupply of bonds rises, lowering the price and raisingthe interest rate.
33Impact on Interest Rates of an Increase in Ms Q of bondsIn the liquidity preference framework, increase in the moneysupply is shown by a rightward shift of Ms. An excess of Msover Md prompts people to buy bonds and thus raise the priceof bonds, lowering the interest rate.
34Impact on Interest Rates of A Rise in Expected Inflation Q of bondsMAn increase in the expected inflation will lower the expected returnson bonds because interest rates will rise forcing capital losses on bonds.On the other hand, bond issuers will expect to pay lower real interestrates in the future and increase their supply. Prices of bonds will falland interest rates will rise. In the liquidity preference framework, thereluctance of bondholders to hold bonds translates into an increase inthe demand for money and a rise in the interest rate.
35A Rise in the Money Supply May Not Lower Interest Rates in The Long-Run Ms up => i down (liquidity effect)i down => I up => Y up (income effect) => Md upY up => P up (price level effect) => Md upP up => expected inflation up (expected inflation effect) => Md upIn the liquidity preference framework, income and price level effects will directly translate into a rightward shift of Md.
36Possible OutcomesIf the liquidity effect is larger than the other effects, an increase in Ms will lower interest rates.If the liquidity effect is smaller than other effects but expectations adjust slowly, an increase in Ms will lower the interest rates initially but will raise them in the long run.If the liquidity effect is smaller than other effects and expectations adjust quickly, an increase in Ms will only bring an increase in interest rates.