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NAVIGATING VUCA IN BUILDING A SMARTER PLANET Smarter Business Requires Smarter Information.

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Presentation on theme: "NAVIGATING VUCA IN BUILDING A SMARTER PLANET Smarter Business Requires Smarter Information."— Presentation transcript:

1 NAVIGATING VUCA IN BUILDING A SMARTER PLANET Smarter Business Requires Smarter Information

2 Being Smart Has Gotten Us Here… Information Knowledge Wisdom

3 …Using Smart Systems Information Knowledge Wisdom Completely Reactive Non Scientific Non Collaborative Mostly Reactive Basic Scientific Low Collaboration Partially Proactive High Scientific Initial Collaboration

4 Being Smart Just Isn’t Good Enough Anymore VUCA Knowledge Wisdom Highly Proactive Quantum Scientific Real Time Collaboration

5 What the VUCA is that? Originated from US Army War College in late 1990’s Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity Information Knowledge Wisdom “VUCA Meter” LOWHIGH

6 Why the VUCA is it Happening? ENVIRONMENTAL Changing and less predictable climatic patterns Scarcity of resources (oil, water, arable land, etc) SOCIAL More tightly interconnected systems (economics, political, social) Evolution to rapid exponential effects vs. slow or moderate linear effects

7 Being Smart Has Been Good Enough….So Far Information Knowledge Wisdom External Factors LOWHIGH Current Smart Models Policy & Regulatory Economic & Business Resource Abundance Environmental Consistency Independent & Sovereign Moderate & Linear Evolutionary Advancements

8 Being Smart Has Been Good Enough….So Far We’re pretty smart at deploying innovations to benefit humanity. Just keep doing what has worked in the past…..right? Time Adoption Current Business & Policy Models are sufficient to determine appropriate strategies and resources to drive innovations Lack of Complexity of External Factors = Little interference with ease of use Confidence in extraction of value

9 New Realities in External Factors Information Knowledge Wisdom LOWHIGH Current Smart Models Policy & Regulatory Economic & Business Resource Constrained Environmental Change Interconnected & Global Rapid & Exponential Evolutionary Required Objectives External Factors Simply being smart doesn’t produce the benefits it used to

10 Why Isn’t Smart Good Enough? Time Adoption Current Business & Policy Models assuming low to moderate VUCA contextual environment Complex External Factors = Significant interference with ease of use Obstacles to extraction of value

11 Ultimately, Stalling at the Gap VUCA Knowledge Wisdom Highly Proactive Quantum Scientific Real Time Collaboration Population Growth to 9 Billion + Climate Change Resource Scarcity Economic Disparity

12 How to Become Smarter The innovation that is needed, is an innovation to leadership behavior.

13 Victim or Victor Leaders have historically achieved victory by being smart with smart tools. Those same leaders using the same smart behavior are becoming victims in the evolving new reality. How about a little game of…….

14 Truth or Dare VICTIM Be honest……tell the truth Leadership Behavior Yearly underperformance & missed expectations Only sees and addresses the most immediate problems Sees only one issue or solution, misses the range and combinations Unaware of the cause and effect between multiple issues Sees realization of success only through narrow focus Scalability is dependent on repeatability of the same behavior and set of tools that have worked in the past Commits to a path and pushes through, regardless of indicators of potential failure Uncomfortable or unwilling to absorb and act on complex situations or “intuitive based” strategies

15 Truth or Dare VICTOR Do you dare……be a great leader Leadership Behavior Achieving “top-line” growth and consistent positive EBITDA in turbulent times Continual assessment of risks and improvement of “sensing” processes Has a range of operational options that are flexible, yet achieve a single strategic outcome Sees both the forest AND the trees, knows the difference and can identify the most appropriate set of paths Sees issues in the context of their entire environmental relationship Identifies core issue determinants and understands their relevance to achieving the strategic goal Trusts that sensing future issues can improve today’s ability to compete

16 Tools That Support Innovative Leadership Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes PRIMAR Y DRIVI FACTOR S PRIMARY DRIVING MARKET FACTORS PRIMARY DRIVING AGRONOMIC FACTORS Region 2 – Wine Grape Agronomic Specific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor Region 2 – Wine Grape Agronomic Specific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor Region 3 – Wine Grape Agronomic Specific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor Region 2 – Wine Grape Agronomic Specific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes

17 Market Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Supporting Principles Corporate Foresight Modeling Crowd Sourcing Collective Intelligence Lifecycle Modeling Innovation Adoption Models

18 Knowledge to Wisdom Knowledge is Smart Information Traditional market analysis driven by demographic based data Wisdom is Smarter Information Traditional market analysis driven by demographic based data AND Integrated configuration of market’s external factors Degree of influence from integrated set of external factors Relational map of vested stakeholders and change indicators Guidance system for optimal market engagement

19 Tools That Support Innovative Leadership Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes PRIMAR Y DRIVI FACTOR S PRIMARY DRIVING MARKET FACTORS PRIMARY DRIVING AGRONOMIC FACTORS Methodology and tools for market analysis Quantifying the configuration and degree of influence from external market factors on a market population Establishing a market behavioral profile

20 Tools That Support Innovative Leadership Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes Region 2 – Wine Grape Agronomic This is the Lodi wine region If you can read this – you are awesome. Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo Region 2 – Wine Grape Agronomic This is the Lodi wine region If you can read this – you are awesome. Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo Region 2 – Wine Grape Agronomic This is the Lodi wine region If you can read this – you are awesome. Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo Region 2 – Wine Grape Agronomic This is the Lodi wine region If you can read this – you are awesome. Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes Region 1 cropJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec Wine Grapes Profile mapping with primary behavioral influencing factors Profile specific vested stakeholder relational map Market based ecosystem relational map Profile and issue specific optimal market engagement guidance

21 Bridge the Gap to a Smarter Planet Victory over VUCA Time Adoption Knowledge Wisdom

22 They Said What? Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat – Sun Tzu A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be – Albert Einstein He who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off in the new – Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince

23 Acknowledgements Imagery: Google Images To the men, the myths and the legends that I’ve worked with in refining these models and processes. You all know who you are. Onward and upward! Contact:


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