Presentation on theme: "International Workshop on Rescue and Digitization of Climate Records in the Mediterranean Basin 28-30 November, 2007, Tarragona, Spain Serhat Sensoy."— Presentation transcript:
International Workshop on Rescue and Digitization of Climate Records in the Mediterranean Basin 28-30 November, 2007, Tarragona, Spain Serhat Sensoy
Presentation plan Definitions Questionnaire results Historical climate records in Ottoman Empires Natural proxy sources Tree-rings, Dendrochronology of Anatolia Speleothem Caves, ENVNET project Climate Change Detection Studies DARE activities in Turkey Conclusion
Data Rescue (DARE) Project The Data Rescue (DARE) project is aimed at assisting countries in the management, preservation and use of climatic data over their own territories. DARE commits to microfilm and microfiche, and eventually to digital media through CLICOM and other means, the original written manuscript records which may date back more than 100 years and in many cases are in danger of deteriorating and of being lost. The DARE project in Africa, funded primarily by Belgium, dates back to 1979 and the Belgium-supported phase was terminated in mid 1997. It has resulted in more than five million documents from more than 30 countries being saved on microfilm. In 1995 a DARE project began in the Caribbean with funding support from Canada. New DARE strategy In the mid-1990´s, technological advancements made it possible to optically scan climate data as a new method of creating digital climate archives. This technology permits the data not only to be preserved, but also to be in a form for exchange via computer media. However, it is now recognized that these data must be moved into digital databases for use in analyses and climate change studies. Optically scanning images certainly preserves the data and is a major improvement over hard copy media, but placing the data in full digital usable form will make it accessible to many more. An International Data Rescue meeting (September 2001, Geneva) re-defined Data Rescue as : An ongoing process of preserving all data at risk of being lost due to deterioration of the medium, and the digitization of current and past data into computer compatible form for easy access. This definition implies that: 1. Data should be stored as image files onto media that can be regularly renewed to prevent the deterioration of the medium (cartridges, CDs, DVDs etc.) 2. Data should be key-entered in a form that can be used for analyses. New data rescue projects are being implemented in many countries (Vietnam, Rwanda, Jamaica, Honduras)
A DARE questionnaire has been prepared and sent to all GCOS focal point of the eastern Mediterranean countries in order to learn their status.
From: Serhat SensoySerhat Sensoy To: Dr Nato Kutaladze ; Hamlet Melkonyan ; Fatemeh Rahimzadeh ; Meteo@azdata.net;Dr Nato Kutaladze Hamlet Melkonyan Fatemeh Rahimzadeh Meteo@azdata.net firstname.lastname@example.org; email@example.com@main.mgo.rssi.ru; firstname.lastname@example.org@hnms.gr ; email@example.com@uaemet.gov.ae ; firstname.lastname@example.org ; email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org_pme@hotmail.com ; K_elfadli_met@mail.lttnet.net ; K_elfadli_met@mail.lttnet.net email@example.com@meteolb.org; firstname.lastname@example.org@jometeo.gov.jo ; email@example.com ; firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com@y.net.ye; firstname.lastname@example.org@yahoo.com ; email@example.com ; firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com@cytanet.com.cv; firstname.lastname@example.org ; email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Sent: Wednesday, October 10, 2007 1:47 PM Subject: DARE Questionnaire Georgia Armenia Iran Azerbaijan Bulgaria Russia Greece U.A.E. Syria S.Arabia Libya Lebanon Jordan Israel Yemen Iraq Egypt Cyprus Bahrein Turkey Countries DARE questionnaire sent Only 6 countries filled the questionnaire. Responded countries (6) Not responded countries (14)
The measurement of temperature for Istanbul were firstly published in 1842 in the newspaper “ Ceride-i Havadis”. This measurements were performed by the foreign volunteers (Oguz, A., 2007). Official observation was started in 1868 in the Observatoire Imperial Meteorologique de Constantinapole. French Records from 1868-1897 were including monthly pressure, Tmax, Tmin, precipitation and daily max prec., wind speed and direction, RH%, N.of rainy, snowy, foggy, lightning day Ottoman records (3 climate books) from 1896-1901, 1901-1907,1907-1914 (daily record) They are including wind speed and direction, Precipitation, Humidity, Temperature and Pressure daily data German records during the 1st World War collected at “Zum Klima der Turkei” (1915-1918) Records from Kandilli Observatory (1926-1936) Turkish State Meteorological Service from 1937- Historical records from Ottoman Empires
Some early climate records in Turkey started around 1840 in the school, hospital, embassy, by some volunteers like scientist, engineer, priest etc. These observations were not been continuous form and most of them were not been saved carefully. First scientific observation was started in 1856 by Ritter (engineer) in Bosporus observation park which regularly installed 6m above sea level and 2m surface temperature shield. Another observation was carried out by Mr. William Henri Lyne from 1865-1886. This man lived 30 years in Haydarpasa, Istanbul as a guard of English cemetery. This man performed observation in his house garden and observed rainfall, max and min temperature and wind. He recorded them in a book and sent to London. In August, 1841Ceride-i Havadis newspaper has started to give information about temperature of Istanbul and also give some information on how temperature can measure, what is summer temperature in S. Arabia (28-30º and winter temperature in PetersburgºSiberia (-40º) in order to improve public opinion about climate. In August, 1841 Ceride-i Havadis newspaper has started to give information about temperature of Istanbul and also give some information on how temperature can measure, what is summer temperature in S. Arabia (28-30ºC) and winter temperature in Petersburg (-30 ºC) and Siberia (-40ºC) in order to improve public opinion about climate. Historical records from Ottoman Empires
Istanbul Temperature in 1841 by Ceride-i Havadis CERİDE-İ HAVADİS 158.H./17 Za. 1259-M/09 Dec. 1843 by Oguz A., 2007
Some of the pressure data are already presented and available in ACRE Project at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Pressure/ from Rob Allan)http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Pressure/ and http://www.hadobs.com/http://www.hadobs.com/ Istanbul (EMULATE) 1866-1880 [daily] (Hadley Centre) 1847-1848; 1854 [monthly] (ADVICE/CRU, UEA, Phil Jones) 1856-present [monthly], İzmir (Hadley Centre, Rob Allan) 1864-1873; 1890-1899; 1906-1994 (gaps) [monthly]
How do we reconstruct climate? Tree Rings Glacial Ice Cores Ocean Sediments - The ratio of oxygen 16 to oxygen 18 preserved in the steady rain of dead organisms. Radiocarbon dates of organic material Pollen samples found in packrat middens and lake bed samples. Variations in desert varnish coatings found on rocks in the arid southwest Variations found in peatbog deposits Sedimentary rock records. Paleoclimatology - The Study of Ancient Climates http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html
Tree Rings How does a tree produce annual rings? There are two main types of ring producing trees. The primary cellular component of tree rings is the tracheid. Tracheids are long tubular cells that make up the xylem. Tracheids formed in the beginning of the growing season are thick walled and low in density. These cells constitute what is called the earlywood. As the end of the growing season nears, climate conditions become less conducive and growth slows. Tracheids become darker and more thin-walled, forming the latewood. Finally, when the growth season ends, there is a marked boundary at the edge of the ringearlywood
Dendrochronology is tree-ring dating. Simply stated, trees grow two ring per calendrial year. For the entire period of a tree's life, a year-by-year record or ring pattern is formed that in some way reflects the climatic conditions in which the tree grew. These patterns can be compared and matched ring for ring with trees growing in the same geographical zone and under similar climatic conditions. Following these tree-ring patterns--the sum of which we refer to as chronologies--from living trees back through time, we can thus compare wood from old or ancient structures to our known chronologies, match the ring patterns (cross- dating), and determine precisely the age of the wood used by the ancient builder. What is Dendrochronology?
Dendrochronological Dating in Anatolia: The Second Millennium BC (Kuniholm, I. P. et all,)
Speleothem (Cave Deposit) Data Speleothems are mineral deposits formed from groundwater within underground caverns. Stalagmites, stalactites, and other forms may be annually banded or contain compounds which can be radiometrically dated. Thickness of depositional layers or isotopic records can be used as climate proxies. A multi-disciplinary research project (ENVNET) is investigating environmental change in Northeast Turkey. Details are representing at http://www.gees.bham.ac.uk/research/ENVNET/
Kendall’s tau based slope estimator has been used to compute the trends since this method doesn’t assume a distribution for the residuals and is robust to the effect of outliers in the series. If slope error greater than slope estimate we can’t trust slope estimate. If PValue is less than 0.05 this trend is significant at 95% level of confidence This indices show that frost days will be decreasing 26.8 days in 100 years. Indices Plots Linear (least square) fit Locally weighted regression
After the reconstruction of past climate data, it will be possible to run RClimDex software to produce climate indices and to detect climate change from historic time to the present. One study has undertaken for the Middle East and published at: http://www.agu.org/pubs/ crossref/2005/2005JD006 181.shtmlhttp://www.agu.org/pubs/ crossref/2005/2005JD006 181.shtml Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices Studies RClimDex
Middle East Climate Indice Study, 4-9 October, 2004 Alanya, Turkey Warm days and warm nights have been increasing in most the stations. Filled triangles represent that trends are significant at 95% level. http://www.agu.org/pu bs/crossref/2005/200 5JD006181.shtml
Example of a modern data analyzing& monitoring facility (GIS) Most of the outputs showed that maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing; number of frost days, ice days and cool nights are decreasing, while number of summer days and warm nights are increasing. The results show that in general, there are large coherent patterns of warming over the Turkey. The maximum one-day precipitation amounts increases even where mean annual precipitation declines. But there is a much more mixed pattern of change in precipitation. Turkey Climate Indices Studies
Turkish Digitized Data All the daily and monthly climate data (260 stations) have been digitized from 1926 to today. They are quality controlled from 1975- All Upper air data (7 stations) have been digitized from 1985- All AWOS minutely data (210 stations) are been stored automatically from 2002- All Rainfall Intensity data (250 station) have been stored from 1993- Satellite and Radar data have been stored from 2003- NWP data have been stored from 2006 Forecast bulletin have been stored from 2001 (still needs to scan from 1968)
DARE Activities in Rainfall Record In Turkey there are 250 stations which have pluviograph. Rainfall intensity analysis is very important to digitize these data from diagrams for flood forecasting and agro meteorological studies. This analyze had been done manually up to 1993. Sometimes this task was taking 2-3 hours. Now, by using digitizer and software, analyze time reduced 2-5 minutes. Program saves hourly rainfall intensity data for further needs.Rainfall intensity analysis
Intensive Rainfall Records This program calculates intensive rainfall amount for standard given time. If rainfall amount is equal or higher than I = √5*t - (t/24)² formula result, then this is called intensive rainfall. For example if t = 10 minutes in above formula, I will be 7.1 mm. Program searches each pixel and finds maximum rainfall for each standard time, and indicates intensive rainfall.
Conclusion In order to detect historical climate values and their DARE activities, a questionnaire has been prepared and sent to eastern Mediterranean countries. Although five countries replied this request (Turkey, Georgia, Jordan, U.A.E., Israel), it is clear that there are many historical sources need to recover and digitize. Also many countries have expressed their intention to rescue of their data but they mentioned some constraints and they need help from WMO and other international organizations. Turkey, Georgia, Jordan, U.A.E. and Israel have historical climate values from 1842, 1844, 1925, 1936 and 1846 respectively and some of the values are still waiting for digitization.
Conclusion cont. Long term climate records (instrumental and proxy) are very important values for climate analysis, climate change detection, mitigation and adaptation studies. There are explored and unexplored historical records in eastren Mediterranean countries. But only a few people are aware of them. Authorities must be aware and consider of them in order to rescue and serve them to the public benefit. 50 years Ottoman Empires climate records ( 1868-1918) need to be translated and digitized. It must be start a project to digitize historical values. European 6th framework project (MACE) included this task as WP 4.5. This project passed all evaluation but not approved yet as financially Paleo sources also can give very important information about ancient climate and possibilty to compare with present. Prof Kuniholm, P., et all spend 30 years in Turkey and they have produced very valuable Anatolia Dendrochronology Database which is worth of appreciation. Turkey has more than hundreds of Speleothem caves which need to be study After the reconstruction of past climate data, it will be possible to run RClimDex software to generate climate indices and to detect climate change from historic time to the present.