1. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 1 2 3 4 Critical Thinking and the Scientific Process Causal Inferences Generalizing Research Results Purpose of This Chapter

2. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 1 Purpose of This Chapter It is very interesting that many of the most successful CEOs do not hold MBAs. GE’s Jack Welch, for example, is formally trained in the “hard” sciences. Although the specialized skills learned in an MBAs program are useful for gaining entry-level positions, managers who rise to the top of the organization are often those who generate, test, and implement new ideas and discoveries. In deed, some have begun to question whether the convergent thinking skills associated with a traditional MBA degree are the most relevant in changing world, and many employers now look in nonbusiness programs for successful leaders. What is the most essential factor to be a successful manager

3. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 1 Purpose of This Chapter “It is no longer cost-effective for the Perks Company to continue offering its employees a generous package of benefits and incentive year after year. In periods when national unemployment rates are low, Perks may need to offer such a package in order to attract and keep good employees, but since national unemployment rates are now high, Perks does not need to offer the same benefits and incentives. The money thus saved could be better used to replace the existing plant machinery with more technologically sophisticated equipment, or even to build an additional plant.” This case is an argument question for the GMAT. Case: The following is part of a business plan being discussed at a board meeting of the Perks Company. To avoid the “quick-fix” mentality, managers need to take several steps: Keep current with the literature in the field of management. Be skeptical when simple solutions are offered and analyze such solution thoroughly. Ensure that the concept they apply are based on science rather than advocacy; and experiment with new solutions themselves whenever possible.

4. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 1 Purpose of This Chapter Chapter Chapter 1 Chapter Chapter 15 Chapter Chapter 16 Content of Management Thinking Process

5. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 1 2 3 4 Critical Thinking and the Scientific Process Causal Inferences Generalizing Research Results Purpose of This Chapter

6. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 2 Critical Thinking and the Scientific Process Traditional Way of Knowing: Rationalism Personal Experience Reliance on Authorities Scientific Method: Characteristic of Scientific Method: Objectivity RepeatableSelf-correctingCumulative The Purpose of Science: Public Understand the World Description Prediction Control the situation Explanation Charles Sanders Peirce: “To satisfy our doubt… it is necessary that a method should be found by which our beliefs may be determined by nothing human, but by some external permanency….The method must be such that the ultimate conclusion of every man should be the Same. Such is the method of science.”

7. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 2 Critical Thinking and the Scientific Process The Nature of Scientific Process Verification Hypotheses Data Theory is expressed as which is quantified with which allow us test the theory through which refutes or modifies the A set of interrelated constructs, definitions and propositions that present a systematic view of phenomenon by specifying relations among variables. A specific, testable prediction, deprived typically from a theory, about the relationship between two variables. Characteristics of Good Data ： i. Reliability ii. Validity iii. standardization

8. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Stages in the Scientific Method Mark W. Roosa, Scientific Method, Arizona University: http://www.public.asu.edu/~atmwr/fas500/documents/scifig.gif Case

9. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case Correlates of Intellectual Property Violation Introduction: Ilkka A. Ronkainen and Jose-Luis Guerrero-Cusumano, “Correlates of Intellectual Property Violation “, Best Practices in International Marketing: 61-69 The occurrence of intellectual property violation varies significantly across countries. Whereas industrialized countries provide the strongest support to the protection of intellectual property, developing countries are at the end of the spectrum.

10. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case Correlates of Intellectual Property Violation 1. Identify Research Problem Market FactorsInvolvement Factors 1. GNP per capita7. Signatory to intellectual property treaty 2. Degree of enforcement of the intellectual property law 8. Level of trade dependence 3. Power distance9. Level of trade with advanced economies 4. Avoidance of uncertainty 5. Degree of individualism 6. Masculinity This study focuses on two sets of factors as correlates of intellectual property violation: Market factors and involvement factors.

11. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 2. Formulate Hypotheses H1: The lower GNP per capita in a country, he higher the incidence of intellectual property violation. H2: The lower the degree of enforcement of law and regulations governing the protection of intellectual property, the higher the incidence of its violation. H3: The higher the power distance in a country, the higher the occurrence of intellectual property violation.. H8: The higher the level of trade dependence, the lower the level of intellectual property violation. H9: The higher the level of trade with advanced economies, the lower the level of intellectual property violation.

12. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 3.Choose Research Design/Develop Models to Measures Variables The relationships were tested using regression with the following model: IPV = ß 0 + ß 1 GNP+ … ß 9 TRADE ADV + ε. The measures of the factors as correlates of intellectual property violation are as follows: FactorsMeasures 1. GNP per capitaPurchasing Power Parities (PPP) 2. Degree of enforcement of the intellectual property lawCorruption Perception Index (CPI) 3. Power distancePower Distance Index (PDI) 4. Avoidance of uncertaintyUncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI) 5. Degree of individualismIndividualism Index (II) 6. MasculinityMasculinity Index (MI) 7. Signatory to intellectual property treaty Membership in Berne Convention 8. Level of trade dependence Imports/GNP 9. Level of trade with advanced economies U.S Share in Imports for a Nation

13. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 4. Gather Data The data for the study were obtained from public sources. The software industry was chosen as the focus for the testing of the hypothesis with the rate of piracy per market as estimated by the industry serving as the dependent variable. The data base consisted of 50 countries for which all of the data in this study could be secured (1997 Global Software Piracy Report, 1998).

14. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 5. Analyze Data / Test Hypotheses MODEL CONSTANT X 1 X 2 X 3 X 4 X 5 X 6 X 7 X 8 X 9 R 2 S Proposed Results 1 92.3 (0.000) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 99.6 (0.000) 39.2 (0.000) 48.7 (0.000) 90.9 (0.000) 80.3 (0.000) 73.2 (0.000) 67.9 (0.000) 73.1 (0.000) 109.6 (0.000) -0.0021 (0.000) -5.66 (0.000) +0.502 (0.000) +0.281 (0.005) -0.539 (0.000) -0.124 (0.365) -0.257 (0.000) +0.137 (0.038) -0.0003 (0.0008) -0.0008 (0.019) -2.45 (0.027) -0.219 (0.005) -0.172 (0.032) 72.8 62.9 36.9 13.6 60.0 0.0 29.7 6.2 11.1 79.2 9.7 10.7 14.2 16.6 11.3 17.9 15.1 16.7 16.3 8.7

15. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 6. Analyze Data / Test Hypotheses HYPr2r2 pTest Hypotheses 10.73P<0.000The result is in line with the Hypotheses. 20.63P<0.000The result is in line with the Hypotheses. 30.37P<0.000The result is in line with the Hypotheses. 40.14P<0.005The result is contrary to the Hypotheses. 50.60P<0.000The result is in line with the Hypotheses. 60.00P<0.365The result fail to receive support. 70.30P<0.000The result is in line with the Hypotheses. 80.06P<0.038The result is contrary to the Hypotheses. 90.11P<0.0008The result is contrary to the Hypotheses.

16. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 7. Prepare Research Report Report Preparation i. Report Format ii. Report Writing iii. Guidelines for Tables iv. Guidelines for Graphs i. Timely ii. Objective iii.Professional iv.Informative v. Clear Basic Principle of Report Writing: TOPIC

17. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 1 2 3 4 Critical Thinking and the Scientific Process Causal Inferences Generalizing Research Results Purpose of This Chapter

18. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 3 Causal Inferences Criteria for Inferring Cause (John Stuart Mill) I.Temporal Precedence : the cause must come before the effect 时间顺序：原因发生在结果之前 II.Covariation : the cause is varied the effect varied 共变（存在相关关系）：原因变化 结果变化 III. Elimination of Alternative Explanation 排除其他可能的原因性因素

19. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case The Cause of Absenteeism I.Establishing Covariation: Test of mean difference （均值差异） Employee Number of Absences Plant A (With Day Care) Plant B (Without Day Care) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average 10 11 8 3 4 3 2 1 5 12 11 13 8 16 14 10 4 2 3 5.89.3 Number of Absences at Plant A Employee (Before Day Care)(After Day Care) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average 12 14 10 12 6 8 2 1 1 6 10 11 8 3 4 3 2 1 5 7.59.3

20. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case The Cause of Absenteeism I.Establishing Covariation: Test of correlation coefficient （相关系数） Age Absences +1.0 A perfect Positive Relationship +.50.00 No Relationship -.50 Positive RelationshipNegative Relationship (The absolute value of the correlation reveals the magnitude of the relationship.) Plots Depicting Various Level of Correlation between Variables

21. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case The Cause of Absenteeism II. Elimination of Alternative Explanation : Selection threat: the group selected for comparison were not the same initially 选择因素威胁：指测试群体与总体有系统误差 Employee Number of Absences Plant A (With Day Care) Plant B (Without Day Care) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average 10 11 8 3 4 3 2 1 5 12 11 13 8 16 14 10 4 2 3 5.8 9.3 Age 27 31 30 26 40 61 52 47 46 41 34.6 Age 27 34 31 25 33 35 25 40 52 46 Number of Absences 40.1

22. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior II. Elimination of Alternative Explanation : Selection threat: the group selected for comparison were not the same initially 选择因素威胁：指测试群体与总体有系统误差 History threat: the real cause is not the change you made but rather something else that happened at the same time 历史因素威胁：指不受研究人员控制发生在试验期间的事件

23. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 3 Causal Inferences Designing Observation to Infer Cause The Symbol of Research Design: X: Chang situation for this group O: Score for this group Two Faulty Research Designs 预先实验设计 A. One Group Before-After 一组前后设计 O 1 X O 2 实验组 X O 1 控制组 O 2 B. After Only with Unequal Group 静态组比较设计 Collect data at Time 1 Change situation Collect data at Time 2 Score for Group 1 in Situation A Score for Group 2 without Situation A We use (O 2 -O 1 ) to estimate the result of this experiment. We use (O 2 -O 1 ) to estimate the result of this experiment.

24. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 3 Causal Inferences Designing Observation to Infer Cause Two Improved Research Designs 真实 实验设计 A. Two Groups Before-After 前后测量控制组设计 实验组 X O 1 控制组 O 2 B. Tow Groups After-Only with Randomization 后期测量控制设计 O 1 X O 2 O 3 O 4 We use (O 2 -O 1 )- (O 4 -O 3 ) to estimate the result of this experiment. We use (O 2 -O 1 ) to estimate the result of this experiment. Score at Time 1 for Group 1 Change Situation For Group 1 Score at Time 2 for Group 1 Score at Time 1 for Group 2 No Change in Situation For Group 2 Score at Time 2 for Group 2 Score for Group 1 in Situation A Score for Group 2 without Situation A Randomly Assignment Of people to groups A and B

25. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case How can we rule out age as the alternative explanation for our results? I. Homogeneous Group ： select workers who are 25to 35 years old. Employee Number of Absences Plant A (With Day Care) Plant B (Without Day Care) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average 10 11 8 3 4 3 2 1 5 12 11 13 8 16 14 10 4 2 3 5.8 9.3 Age 27 31 30 26 40 61 52 47 46 41 34.6 Age 27 34 31 25 33 35 25 40 52 46 Number of Absences Average 10 1230 40.1 28.5 Conclusion ： With this sample, we still found lower absenteeism in Plant A than in Plan B, so we could attribute the difference to age.

26. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case How can we rule out age as the alternative explanation for our results? II. Matching Subject ： study only the subject in Plant A for whom there are corresponding subjects in Plant B. Employee Number of Absences Plant A (With Day Care) Plant B (Without Day Care) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average 10 11 8 3 4 3 2 1 5 12 11 13 8 16 14 10 4 2 3 5.8 9.3 Age 27 31 30 26 40 61 52 47 46 41 34.6 Age 27 34 31 25 33 35 25 40 52 46 Number of Absences Average 5.6 6.839.2 40.1 39.2 Conclusion ： With this sample, we still found lower absenteeism in Plant A than in Plan B, so we could attribute the difference to age.

27. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior Case How can we rule out age as the alternative explanation for our results? III. Build the Threat into the Design ： simply treat age as another possible factor affecting the rate of absenteeism and examine its effect at the some time that we study the effect of day care. Conclusion ： The relationship between day care and absenteeism depends on the factor of age. Plant B （ No day care) Plant A （ day care) Average Number of Absences 3 30 (35-65-year-old) (25-35-year-old)

28. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 1 2 3 4 Critical Thinking and the Scientific Process Causal Inferences Generalizing Research Results Purpose of This Chapter

29. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior 4 Generalizing Research Results Results of research may not generalize across all samples. Results of research must be examined across: - Samples - Settings - Time Research is generally conducted with one sample, in one setting, in one time period 。 However, we often wish to know the generalizability of the results. Generalizability is defined as the extent to which results obtained in one sample-setting-time configuration can be repeated in a different configuration.

30. 16 Chapter Critical Thinking and Continuous Learning Organizational Behavior