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UNCONVENTIONAL GAS AND THE FUTURE John H Perkins, PhD Kyiv, Ukraine 26 September 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "UNCONVENTIONAL GAS AND THE FUTURE John H Perkins, PhD Kyiv, Ukraine 26 September 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 UNCONVENTIONAL GAS AND THE FUTURE John H Perkins, PhD Kyiv, Ukraine 26 September 2013

2 THE BRIDGE IDEA “Natural gas can serve as a bridge fuel to a low- carbon, sustainable energy future.” John Podesta and Timothy Wirth, “Natural Gas—A Bridge Fuel for the 21 st Century” August 10, 2009 (http://www.energyfuturecoalition.org/files/webfmuploads/CAP%20EFC%20NG%20Memo%208-08-09.pdf)

3 The Question In unconventional gas a bridge to sustainable energy? Multiple answers: Yes, Maybe, No My answer –At best: Maybe, but not likely –Most likely: No To build a sustainable energy future: –Invest in efficiency and renewable energy –Put price on carbon

4 Framework: “Energy Systems” Energy: essential Fossil fuels = 84% Fuels specialized... …interchangeable Expensive facilities Slow turnover Change affects all parts of system http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/coalpower/cfpp/CFPPs/SuccessStories.htm Northside Generating Station, Florida

5 Ukraine’s Energy System

6 Ukraine: The Big Problems Energy insecurity (gas) –Physical –Economic –Political Climate change Resource depletion

7 Ukraine – Russia Gas Dispute, 2009 Source: The Other Russia and the BBC

8 Ukraine: Climate Change “In Central and Eastern Europe, summer precipitation is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress. Health risks due to heat waves are projected to increase. Forest productivity is expected to decline and the frequency of peat-land fires to increase.” (IPCC, Working Group II, Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policy Makers, p. 12, 2007)

9 Security and Climate Change Short term –Supply –Costs Long term –Climate change Sheffield & Wood, Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations, Climate Dynamics 31 (2008): 79 – 105.

10 New Gas: Questions for Security and Climate Production costs – Pipeline access – Prices? And then what? –Replace imported gas or coal for electricity? –Replace nuclear for electricity? –Replace coal for industry? –Expand energy use? –Efficiency investments? –Renewable investments? –Expand exports?

11 Replace coal for electricity? Replace nuclear for electricity? Replace coal for industry? Expand energy use? Interactions with efficiency investments? Interactions with renewable investments? Expand exports? Replace imported gas for electricity?

12 Who Decides? Producing companies? National government? Regional or local government? Private citizens? With what criteria? –Sales price & profit? –National security? –Climate change?

13 Ukraine: Wind Resources European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, “Ukraine Country Profile,” 2010

14 Solar Resources http://solargis.info/doc/_pics/freemaps/1000px/ghi/SolarGIS-Solar-map-Europe-en.png

15 Conclusions Think energy systems Unconventional gas: –May or may not help security –May or may not help climate change –May or may not help sustainability Energiewende: –Provides best goals (for all countries) –Directs investments in right direction –Provides more manageable impacts –Leaves gas in the ground

16 Contact Information John H Perkins, PhD 236 Cambridge Avenue Kensington, CA 94708 perkinsj@evergreen.edu 510-647-9434 THANK YOU!

17 World Energy Flows (2007)

18 UKRAINE: Insecurity (gas), 2010 Nuclear 17.9% Hydro 0.9% Prepared from: http://www.iea.org/stats/WebGraphs/UKRAINE4.pdf 130.5 MTOE = 5.2 quads

19 World Energy Flows (2007) Private companies and state enterprises Competition Communities and jobs Customers and communities dependent on energy services

20 Ukraine: Solar Resources European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, “Ukraine Country Profile,” 2010

21 Total World Energy Supply (2008, 492 EJ) IPCC, Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources (2011)

22 Private companies and state enterprises Competition Communities and jobs Customers and communities dependent on energy services

23 Ukraine: Climate Change “... rainfed agriculture might indeed face more climate-elated risks, but the overall conditions will probably allow for acceptable yield levels in most seasons. However... the risk of extremely unfavourable years... is likely to increase.” (Trnka, M., et al., Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk? Using a regional climate model to produce high resolution agroclimatic information for decision makers, Journal of Agricultural Science 148 (2010): 639-656)

24 ENERGY IS A MESS! Insecure supplies Pollution damages health Habitat disruption Energy poverty & energy “overabundance” Injustices Complicates foreign policies Pressure on foreign-exchange reserves UNSUSTAINABLE!

25 Fixing Energy: A Philosophical Framework Sustainable energy: provide for today, leave enough for tomorrow Energy must change and is changing. The Questions –Which fuels? –Who decides? –Based on what criteria? –At what speed? –Who pays? –Eliminate injustices

26 From Fuels to Energy: The Big Picture for Ukraine and USA Total energy on top Fuels on left Electricity in center On right –Energy services ResidentialCommercialIndustrialTransport Non-energy use –Discarded energy https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

27 Energy Flow Charts (Sankey diagrams) Riall Sankey –Irish engineer –1898 –Study of steam engine efficiency Widely used –Flows of energy & materials –Quantitative data without lots of math –Efficiency and conservation paramount –Decision-making by large group

28 DRIVERS OF ENERGY CHANGE Energy insecurity –Uneven geographic distribution –Instability of supply—geopolitical tensions –Poverty Climate change –CO 2 major cause: from fossil fuels –Climate sensitivity to CO 2 uncertain –Need high reduction of fossil fuels –80% reduction of CO 2  61% fewer quads

29 80 PERCENT CO 2 REDUCTIONS (USA) FUELQuads, 2012 CO 2 Emissions (10 6 metric tons) Emissions after reduction (10 6 metric tons) Quads remaining Coal17.4166000 Petroleum34.7227000 Gas26.01370106020.1 Geothermal0.230.4 Biomass4.3200 Wind1.3600 Hydro2.6900 Nuclear8.0500 Solar0.2400 TOTAL95.153001060.437.2 or 39%

30 SOLUTION:ENERGIEWENDE Avoid fossil fuels, nuclear power Efficiency: use less energy Use renewable energy New lifestyles: use less energy

31 CRITERIA FOR CHOICES Technology –Functional –Acceptable (democratic) –Cost effective Political economy (security) Health (climate change; pollution) Environment (climate change; pollution) Corruption (no!)

32 CONCLUSIONS Sustainable energy systems –Efficiency –Solar –Wind –Electrification –Energy-Environment-Economics-Equity Success = changing Sankey flow chart –Reduce fossil fuels and CO 2 –Avoid gas & nuclear All new investment to renewable energy Time period: two generations, 50 years

33 SUCCESS https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

34 Time: Think 2 Generations


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