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Visualizing the housing market and the changing human geography of Britain, 1970-2012 Keynote: Danny Dorling, Housing Studies Association Annual Meeting,

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Presentation on theme: "Visualizing the housing market and the changing human geography of Britain, 1970-2012 Keynote: Danny Dorling, Housing Studies Association Annual Meeting,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Visualizing the housing market and the changing human geography of Britain, 1970-2012 Keynote: Danny Dorling, Housing Studies Association Annual Meeting, University of York, 18 th April 2012 This map looks like a jumble of lines but it is a in fact a map of migration trends, of people moving home, of all the moves taking place 32 years ago, from 6 months before when the right-to-buy was passed into law in 1980 to 6 after. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 3). Within borough moves were more common; dense clusters

2 To visualize housing, especially migration and segregation, we need to create more space on our maps, so re-project them “The median income of social housing tenants rose by 9.3 per cent from 2005/06 to stand at £8,996 per annum in 2011/12. When comparing this increase to CPI and RPI (18.2 and 20.8 per cent respectively) a real terms loss of income of between 8.9 and 11.5 percent is revealed. Even tenants in full-time work have only just kept in touch with inflation with an increase from £14,040 to £16,655 (or +18.6 per cent) so are not better off than six years ago” (Gulliver 2012) Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 53).

3 Draw places in proportion to people and show how they are connected together These images are of how we are all “on the island together” if not “all in it together”. They try to connect geographical to social change: “Tenants have few savings on which to depend in times of crisis; more than two thirds (66.4 per cent) have no savings at all. Of those tenants with savings, 48.8 per cent have less than £1,000 with a further 24.1 per cent having no more than £3,000.” (Gulliver, 2012) As the social fund is cut more loan sharks move in. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 54). Pop centre Population centre moved north in the 1970s. For the full map see Figure 16: http://www.dannydorling.org/wp-content/files/dannydorling_publication_id1449.pdf

4 The last year in which we really never had it so good was 1976. The last year wages took a greater share of national wealth than the year before When flows are artificially routed through areas it looks as if far more people move to London (top left diagram). Don’t route them, but drop them in as curved lines (top right), and it is clear more people leave London for the South East. Simplify that map and you loose too much detail (bottom left). The last figure, shows all the 1975-76 flows (bottom right). London was becoming less crowded. All the lighter coloured areas were gaining people then. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 117).

5 Local Authority Districts numbered to try to show how “we are all in it together" “Between 400,000 and 600,000 social housing tenants of working age in England will be affected by the ‘Bedroom Tax’ equating to between 13 and 20 per cent of all social housing tenants in England and between 25 and 35 per cent of those of working age. The ‘Bedroom Tax’ will be most keenly felt in the North of followed by the Midlands and the South-West. £14 on average will be lost to those affected tenants, rising to an average of £22 for those ‘under-occupying’ by two or more bedrooms.” (Gulliver, 2012) Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 57).

6 Giving everyone space on the map changes thinking about places On a normal map there is what looks like spare space everywhere. But there isn’t. Here is how we crowd into cities. As that crowding has increased in the south government has sought to criminalize squatting in a move that may incur costs of £790 million in the first 5 years of its operation (31 times more than official estimates – see Squash, 2012). And Since 1996: “The average age of death for homeless people still remains shockingly low at just 47 years old, and with the average age for homeless women being even lower at 43” (Crisis, 2011) Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 61).

7 Here are Average Housing prices in Britain 30 years ago (grey scale) ward cartogram It is quite easy to forget that when we had more social housing we also had much lower house prices. The white mass of more expensive housing in Greater London and the Home Counties is extremely distinctive, but at this spatial scale a few wards of very low local housing price can still be seen, clustered in the East End. Glasgow city is also particularly distinctive. Prices over a number of years would produce a more reliable but similar overall impression. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 87).

8 Voting in the British local elections 1987-88-90 (proportions) ward cartogram It is also easy to forget that locally Labour politics was (even in opposition) much stronger.The triangle shows the colours for the safest seats at its corners, easy wins next to them, two-way marginals in the middle of the sides and three-way marginals at its centre. The cartogram clearly shows these results for all 10,444 wards, small and large. Outside London the pattern shown is similar to that of occupation. Local party strongholds can be identified. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 93).

9 Unemployment rate in Britain 1981 (grey scale) ward cartogram The cabinet have been liked to a “1980s tribute government” as some aspects of life do revert to 1980s norms and levels. Important areas with high rates that can be identified include the Welsh Valleys, West Midlands, Liverpool, South Yorkshire, the North East conurbations and the Glasgow area. The small cluster of darkly coloured wards making up Corby can be seen just to the left of centre. Areas with very low rates of unemployment form a distinctive pattern. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 63).

10 Unemployment rate in Britain 1981 (grey scale) ward map Everything looked (and still looks) much better drawn traditionally. 10,444 wards showing unemployment rates from the 1981 census on an equal land area map using a continuous grey scale. This unsuitable projection dramatically overemphasizes the high rates of unemployment in the under-populated North West of Scotland, where the fate of less than a dozen people could darken a large expanse of land. The inner city problems can just be made out. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 62).

11 Change of residence in England and Wales 1980/81 32% sample ward level cartogram On the cartogram the bundles of migratory flows take the shape of London boroughs and other areas which council house tenants found difficult to move out of in the past. No it is just impossible to move into and moving out is being made easy. The more prosperous areas of the country are blackened by the density of flows in and through them. The shape of the conurbations is clear, as people who can avoid living there, migrate around them. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 4). Exactly the same data as on the first slide.

12 Change of residence between wards with job status, England and Wales, 1980/81 cartogram Locally many moves were constrained by the council house sector to remain in particular bundles of districts or within London boroughs. Surrounding these is a ring of blues and greens, dashed with orange and yellow towns. People move, but they tend very much to move to the same type of estate they left, and so, despite a lot of movement, the spatial class structure is maintained. Changes in housing since 1981 have increased the spatial polarization. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 134).

13 What a market crash in the South last looked like: House price inflation in Britain 1988/89 (grey scale) ward cartogram The housing bubble started to burst in 1989, but rises approach 50% in one year were still occurring in a few wards in the north as the supply of housing became constrained and demand grew. The picture in the north became brighter than it had ever been, and a reverse north/south divide appeared. As housing prices start falling, many who bought recently were be plunged into negative equity, their homes worth less than their mortgages. This is being guarded against today (for south east England). Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 106).

14 House Prices in Britain 1989 (grey scale) ward cartogram Even after the housing market crash, by 1989 the picture still looked similar to that for 1983 (see Figure 87 above). Some lowest valued wards had shifted; in London, to nearer the centre. Areas later gentrified. Prices in the middle of Aberdeen had collapsed. But look at the scales. At the bottom end, average ward house prices had risen by 55%, at the top by 145%: fortunes paid for by people who in 1989 had recently entered negative equity and later paid for by future house buyers and renters. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 107).

15 Voting in the British General Elections 1987, swings, constituency arrow glyph cartogram Between 1983 and 1987 the North moved left and the south didn’t. Arrows are especially useful when neighbouring groups point in similar directions. The colour shows the 1987 three party vote. The length of arrows show the direction and size of the swings from the 1983 results. They can be seen to be flowing together, as the Labour strongholds move further to the left. The direction of movement is less certain in the Home County areas, in a few places even shifting further rightwards after the SDP collapse. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 113).

16 House price, non-voting and employments with voting colour 1983 constituency faces cartogram Take the last distribution, add a few other variables and geographical stereotyping becomes easily possible. The death-like heads inside Glasgow city are orange (Lab/SNP), while the happy faces around the Capital voted solidly for the government of the day. The Welsh may not have many jobs or expensive housing, but they still turned out to vote in large numbers. This technique is particularly good for identifying exceptions, such as Tynemouth, Newham South and the Isle of White - all odd places. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 155).

17 Daily Commuting as a proportion of destination residents, England and Wales, cartogram One particular view of commuting from home to work showed London to be very different even then: When a different measure of which flows are significant is employed, an unusual picture can result. Here the denominator includes the often small resident population of the ward of the place of work. A pattern of city centre influx dominates, with London standing out. Manchester also shows evidence of a much centralised workforce, as do places such as Hull and Southampton. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 129).

18 Daily Commuting from wards, 50% shown with job status, England and Wales, cartogram And the, if we look at class and commuting into London, maybe what happened later could have been better foretold. This cartogram of commuter flows coloured by social class of commuters is dominated by the orange and yellow areas of the major cities. Some distinctive blue and green streaks run in, and especially around, the Capital. Parallel to some of these flows of people in the best paid jobs are those (red lines) of supervised workers, similarly rushing into this city of extremes. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 131).

19 Daily Commuting from wards, 50% shown with job status, England and Wales, map Back in 1981 mining and manufacturing coloured many cities differently (look at Bristol). The picture of cities here is augmented by the occupations of those who travel to work in them. The centres of most conurbations are dominated by an orange mix of supervised and intermediate employees, while yellow rivers run down the Welsh Valleys. It is usually the better paid who travel furthest to work. The bright blues of professional enclaves around London are striking. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 130).

20 Counties and major cities in Britain, map and 3 continuous area cartograms Now we stretch the map in another way to bring some patterns up to date. Top left is the basemap, next to that is a continuous area population cartogram preserving the physical coastline. Notice how the mass of northern English conurbations are squeezed, like toothpaste, up through the neck of Scotland. The bottom left is (Tobler's) pseudo-cartogram, where the marginal distributions of, in this case latitude and longitude, are equalized. Bottom right is, what was for its era a new type of cartogram, one where everywhere maintains contiguity correctly. Source: The Visualisation of Spacial Social Structure © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 51).

21 All the maps and cartograms shown up to now were of events before 1981. After 1986 -1989 for a typical city like Sheffield…

22 Source: The Population of the UK, © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 2.1). Today we face a mini-baby boom coupled with a recession. More babies are being born again (peaks were 1944, 1964, 1988, maybe 2016, if gaps are 20, 24, 28, but maybe slumps)

23 Source: The Population of the UK, © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figure 1.1). A few new maps to end on…

24 Source: The Population of the UK, © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figures 2.6 2.7). By the year 2001 there were well established patterns of children leaving (net) London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Glasgow, often moving towards higher GCSEs

25 Source: The Population of the UK, © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figures 5.3 and 6.1). Money, housing Wealth and power have all concentrated in the years up to 2010 And (as far as we can tell with early data) – the years after…

26 Source: The Population of the UK, © Copyright 2012 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) (Figures 9.7 and 9.8). When the 2011 census is released we will know how trends in distributions such as 3+ car ownership and seven or more room housing has changed (these show 2001).

27 Source: http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/NIESR-recovery-chart.jpg We also don’t worry enough about this pattern+inequality: UK GDP – falls since start of the recession (1930-2012) This chart looks much worse with the X axis in £’s or €

28 What happens if/when there is a crash “When the housing bubble burst almost six years ago, millions of Americans had to vacate their homes within months of defaulting, in a system that worked like an eviction mill, often resulting in vandalized properties and bitter feelings between banks and borrowers. Since then, the average time it takes to complete a foreclosure has nearly tripled nationwide, from four months in 2007 to about a year at the end of 2011, according to RealtyTrac, with the slowdown most evident in some of the hardest-hit states, including California, Florida and Illinois. Homeowners in Florida who default can now expect to wait more than two years in legal limbo, the one big advantage being the opportunity to remain at home without paying for home.” (Saulny, 2012) It might be worth ending on the words of one anonymous commentator in the USA on seeing the above text and the right to the right.......

29 “This may seem "unfair" to people who actually pay their mortgage but something has to be done, These people in these defaulted homes are not living in total peace like those who pay their mortgage. They live in constant fear... That's not an easy life mentally and emotionally. You may think it's unfair but I feel like finally something is done for people who actually need help. People who can afford to pay their mortgage may not need help and how can you say it's unfair when you are sleeping soundly in your bed while a mother and father are terrified that any day their whole family could be homeless. At least they have time to save money. Have a heart, God didn't give it to us for no reason. We need to extend ourselves to others, Where is the love? We are destroying our own world with our lack of care for other.” Tish, Michigan, March 5, 2012 at 4:55 a.m.

30 References CRISIS (2011) Homelessness: A silent killer, A research briefing on mortality amongst homeless people, London, Crisis – the homelessness charity, http://www.crisis.org.uk/publications-search.php?fullitem=337 http://www.crisis.org.uk/publications-search.php?fullitem=337 Gulliver, K. (2012). ‘All in it Together?’ Measuring the Impact of Austerity, Housing Strategy & Welfare Changes on Vulnerable Groups in Social Housing. Birmingham, Human City Institute http://www.humancity.org.uk/reports/ebulletins/HCI%20bulletin%20no.%2010%2 0-%20all%20in%20it%20together.pdf http://www.humancity.org.uk/reports/ebulletins/HCI%20bulletin%20no.%2010%2 0-%20all%20in%20it%20together.pdf SQUASH (2012) Squatters’ Action for Secure Homes, Cost of new squatting law could be £790m, report, http://www.squashcampaign.org/2012/03/cost-of-new- squatting-law-could-be-790m/http://www.squashcampaign.org/2012/03/cost-of-new- squatting-law-could-be-790m/ Saulny, S. (2012) U.S. banks and homeowners reach détente, New York Times, March 3 rd, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/04/us/when-living-in-limbo-avoids- living-on-the-street.html?ref=ushttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/04/us/when-living-in-limbo-avoids- living-on-the-street.html?ref=us


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