1. Weather & Climate Dr. Dave DuBois NM State Climatologist http://weather.nmsu.edu Presented to PHYS110 students, April 22, 2010

3. Precipitation from Radar

4. What is Climate? Climate is the average, expected value for a specific time (of day, year, etc.) Weather is what actually happens Climate is defined over long periods, typically more than 20 to 30 years time spans Climate is not just about temperature Climate change is not just about global warming

5. Predicting Weather What is the current weather? – Observations of weather at surface and aloft Does the current weather fit a pattern? – Fair weather ridge, stormy trough, monsoon, etc. First guess from experience and education Consult forecast models – Global to regional to sub-regional Compare with statistics from the past – Look at both models and observations Refine forecast Repeat every few hours

6. AWIPS workstation

7. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Basic physical laws converted into a series of mathematical equations – Physical laws of motion (e.g. Newton’s 2 nd law) – Conservation of energy (e.g. 1 st law thermo) Basic prediction – If we know initial condition of the atmosphere, we can solve the equations to obtain new values of variables at a later time

8. Basic Weather Prediction Model A model in its simplest form

9. Parameterization Simplify calculations to put into model Example: cloud optical depth (how much solar radiation penetrates clouds)

10. NCEP Supercomputing IBM Power6 p575 – 69.7 Teraflops Linpack #36 Top 500 Nov 2008 – 156 Power6 32-way Nodes – 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz – 19,712 gigabytes memory – 170 terabytes of disk space – 100 terabyte tape archive Slide adapted from a talk by Ben Kyger, Director, NCEP Central Operations

13. Still Forecasts miss Storms Hail storm in Boulder, Colorado Lasted 20 minutes, 1-km wide path 2 inches deep of hail, stripped leaves off trees Before storm T=81F, after storm T=39F NWS issued large hail warning only after seeing the radar as it was falling and reports from weather spotters

14. Schlatter et al., (2008) Monthy Weather Review

15. http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/geog390_wxbrief.html http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/weather.html Demonstration

16. Tipping Bucket Rain Gage NM Climate Center weather station at Leyendecker Farm Funnels precipitation into a bucket mechanism that tips when filled to a calibrated level. A magnet attached to the tipping mechanism actuates a switch as the bucket tips. The momentary switch closure is counted by pulse counting circuitry. Inside tipping bucket

17. Temperature/Humidity Sensor Combined temperature and relative humidity probeWith cover off

18. 4” Diameter Rain Gage The rain gauge is composed of three parts: a funnel, a measuring tube, and a 4-inch diameter overflow tube, and a mounting bracket. The funnel directs the precipitation into the measuring tube and magnifies it by a factor of 10. This allows observers to report rainfall to the nearest 0.01" (one hundredth of an inch). The measuring tube, when full, will hold "one inch" of rainfall. When it rains more than one inch, the excess water collects in the overflow tube. This is rain and snow data is collected for this: http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=nm

19. Physics 110G Climate TOC 19 http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ Satellite Based Near Surface Temperature In the bulk troposphere, March 2011 was the 14th coolest in the past 33 years

20. Physics 110G Climate TOC 20 http://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/ File:Gree nhouse_E ffect.svg

21. Physics 110G Climate TOC 21 CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data 1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica 1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica 2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature Graph Sources: 2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data 1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data 1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

22. Physics 110G Climate TOC 22 CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data 1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica 1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica 2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature Graph Sources: 2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data 1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data 1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

23. Physics 110G Climate TOC 23 CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data 1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica 1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica 2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature Graph Sources: 2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data 1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data 1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

24. Physics 110G Climate TOC 24 http://w ww.dura ngobill.c om/Swin dle_Swin dle.html The Historical Temperature Data vs. Carbon Dioxide & Methane

25. Physics 110G Climate TOC 25 http://sol ar- center.sta nford.edu /sun-on- earth/60 0px- Temp- sunspot- co2.svg.p ng

26. Physics 110G Climate TOC 26 http://ar xiv.org/f tp/arxiv/ papers/ 1003/10 03.6045. pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_global_ warming_theory

27. Physics 110G Climate TOC 27 http://en. wikipedia.org/wiki /Greenho use_gas I searched and did not find an equivalent graph of non-athropogenic changes.

28. Physics 110G Climate TOC 28

29. Physics 110G Climate TOC 29 http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/ Curve_fitt ing Polynomial curves fitting points generated with a sine function. Red line is a first degree polynomial, green line is second degree, orange line is third degree and blue is fourth degree

30. Physics 110G Climate TOC 30

31. Physics 110G Climate TOC 31 http://w ww.atmos phere.mp g.de/enid /Nr_7_M arch_2__ 6_Climate _modelin g/C__Ho w_climat e_models _work_5iy.html

32. Physics 110G Climate TOC 32 http://w ww.atmos phere.mp g.de/enid /Nr_7_M arch_2__ 6_Climate _modelin g/C__Ho w_climat e_models _work_5iy.html

33. Physics 110G Climate TOC 33 10. The development of climate models over the last 25 years showing how the different components are first developed separately and later coupled into comprehensive climate models. © IPCC TAR 2001 Technical summary, Box 3, Fig 1 http://w ww.atmos phere.mp g.de/enid /Nr_7_M arch_2__ 6_Climate _modelin g/C__Ho w_climat e_models _work_5iy.html