Presentation on theme: "November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Biofuels and their impacts on Global Climate, People and Forests Biofuelwatch www.biofuelwatch.org.uk introduced."— Presentation transcript:
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Biofuels and their impacts on Global Climate, People and Forests Biofuelwatch www.biofuelwatch.org.uk introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Summary Climate Change background - urgency to avoid catastropic climate change Public policy debate has been sidelined Agrofuels / biofuels are accelerating climate change Certification = no viable regulation Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts UNDP Report – pre-Bali
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Descending the fossil emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 Biofuels being sold at this level – BUT IS THE OPPOSITE TRUE? Energy efficiency and energy reduction Carbon management – use less carbon Decarbonise – switch from carbon completely Current EU energy policy 90% carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY!
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Emission sources Deforestation, agriculture and peat Anthropogenic energy From Stern Report
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Positive feedbacks – not on political radar IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically conservative. –Are constrained by what is politically and economically acceptable. –Are also some two years out of date when published. Dynamic positive feedbacks – emerging science during last 2 years All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG) trying to highlight
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts US / EU Biofuel Policy – going off the graph EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now) 2010 2020 US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers Government and corporate subsidy and promotion Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms –Year-on-year economic growth –Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics Short term “energy security” fix –Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq –Stabilising Oil price? –EU / US “Oil independence” New global mega-industry and infrastructure –agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors –car manufacturers avoid more efficient vehicles –refining, tankage and shipping sectors –commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Agrofuels – no public policy debate Even current 1% EU penetration has taken us into ‘downstream’ phase of implementation Yet, there has been no consistent or complete scientific and policy scrutiny Bypassed by Governments and industry Public policy debate is urgently needed – moratorium is needed to facilitate this
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Agrofuel issues Greenhouse gas (GHG) balances Environmental impacts: Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity, water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals Social impacts: Poverty, land grabbing, land conflicts, human rights, labour, food security and sovereignty
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Food vs Fuel FAO Agricultural Outlook, July 2007 “increased demand for biofuels is causing fundamental changes to agricultural markets that could drive up world prices for many farm products” FAO, September 2007 “Developing countries face serious social unrest as they struggle to cope with soaring food prices”
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Food vs Fuel Low-Income Food- Deficit countries (LIFDCs) :: Social unrest / food riots Feed prices Huge industry denial Food sovereignty –Best land taken for agrofuels –Even import poor quality food 16 million starve per 1% commodity price rise
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Jean Ziegler UN Special Rapporteur on the “Right to Food” Grave concern over impact of biofuels on food security and starvation October 25 th 2007 – called for a 5 year moratorium on biofuels at UN General Assembly Backed by Secretary General
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Bioenergy in Development Small scale production in community FOR COMMUNITY beneficial –especially women’s health –Low power electricity generation BUT governments looking to big export markets – driven by EU (and US) targets –Local markets governed by global market –No place for small farmers African case – lack of clarity of policy –Highlighted in African Biodiversity Network report
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Impacts on People Use of bioenergy in rural economies –Could help – especially women BUT –Large scale monocultures (eg 11,200 people to be evicted by Sun Biofuels Jatropha plantation in Tanzania) –Governments welcome in large companies to boost export market Land grabbing –Governments allow companies to get around land laws –Some 2 billion hectares of Southern land up for recolonisation
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Impacts on People Human rights –Pesticide use (especially with GM varieties etc) –Deforestation causing health problems –Land conflicts – paramilitaries in Indonesia and Colombia –Violent evictions and murders Displaced peoples –UN warns up 60 million biofuel refugees –Displaced to less than subsistence rural existence, or to the urban poor in mega cities
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Jatropha 1 Huge land rights issues in countries like India (Guardian, 25/10/07) Contracts biaised to companies not small farmers Fertiliser and irrigation needed for first 3 years Oxfam warn that better yields will come from food land –Even though Jatropha can grown on marginal land it will compete with food land
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Jatropha 2 Use of ‘waste’ land by pastoralists etc not accounted for Head of World Institute of Sustainable Energy in Pune, G.M. Pillai, warns that promotion of jatropha for biodiesel is likely to lead to the destruction of primary and secondary forests in India, with serious consequences for biodiversity. Invasive plant drives biodiversity loss –Poisonous to animals etc
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Hundreds of NGOs in Latin America, Asia and Africa have spoken out against large-scale biofuel monocultures.
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Moratorium calls Monbiot, April 2007, Guardian Southern and Northern NGOs (over 150), July 2007 –Imports into EU –Large scale mono cultures Jean Ziegler, UN, October 2007 –‘crime against humanity’ African NGOs (30) –November 2007, pre-Bali –No global targets, no more African dev.
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts From African BN document “In Uganda, there is an apparent failure to recognise that by encouraging a favourable climate for agrofuels, foreign companies focussed on export are likely to take over the direction of biofuel production” Timothy Byakola, Uganda “The most fertile lands, with best access to water are being targeted, even though these lands are already being used for food production by small-scale farmers” Abdallah Mkindee, Tanzania
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts From African BN document “There seems to be a lack of clarity over whether investment and targets are aimed at production of biofuels for the Zambian market or for export. It seems that companies such as D1 Oils may be promoting biofuels as a domestic energy strategy, in order to open the door to amenable legislation, while really intending to focus biofuel production on the export market”. Matonga Mundia, Zambia
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Sawit Watch, Indonesian NGO “Palm oil for biofuels increases social conflicts and undermines land reform in Indonesia…It is unavoidable that, as a consequence of Europe's biofuels policy, the land rights of indigenous peoples and local communities will be relinquished further, and that food security will be undermined and lands for agricultural purposes and subsistence livelihoods will diminish.”
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth Nigeria “It is a push by industry to make another scramble for Africa, grab the land and continue with business as usual. The industrial bio-energy push to do increased bio-energy demand will be nothing other than an effort at extending the frontiers of neo-colonialism in its continued march on the back of the fabled market forces”
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Landless Movement of Brazil (MST) “We can't call this a ‘bio-fuels program’. We certainly can't call it a ‘bio-diesel program’. Such phrases use the prefix ‘bio-‘ to subtly imply that the energy in question comes from ‘life’ in general. This is illegitimate and manipulative. We need to find a term in every language that describes the situation more accurately, a term like agro-fuel. This term refers specifically to energy created from plant products grown through agriculture.”
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts from a declaration by Latin American NGOs “We want food sovereignty, not biofuels…While Europeans maintain their lifestyle based on automobile culture, the population of Southern countries will have less and less land for food crops and will loose its food sovereignty…We are therefore appealing to the governments and people of the European Union countries to seek solutions that do not worsen the already dramatic social and environmental situation of the peoples of Latin America, Asia and Africa. “
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Do Agrofuels save emissions? Agrofuel infrastructure is built on Fossil Fuel infrastructure –Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based – fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions –Feedstock transport, shipping, ports –Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ; process chemicals
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts N20 needs further study microbes convert N fertiliser to N2O –NEW STUDY by Nobel prizewinner Paul Crutzen, August 2007 : 3 to 5 per cent = twice the widely accepted figure of 2 per cent used by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). oilseed rape biodiesel, for example, is up to 70% worse for the climate than fossil fuel diesel (also corn ethanol) UK and EU Biofuels policy and certification schemes in scientific doubt N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer impact greater in tropics Both EU home grown biofuels and tropical imports
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts UK Government figures NOW in complete scientific doubt From LowCVP presentation to UK Bioenergy conference Sept 2007 Corn Ethanol -50% Oil Seed rape biodiesel -70%
Massive destruction beyond N2O - Agrofuels are accelerating climate change Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia Fires to clear land for palm oil, Kalimantan Photo by Nordin, Save our Borneo
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts New Scientist 1/12/07 including the one-off releases from deforestation, each hectare of peatland drained for palm oil will emit between 3750 and 5400 tonnes over the next 25 years, according to Jack Rieley, a tropical peatlands specialist at the University of Nottingham, UK. Even if the palm oil is used as biofuel, a hectare's output will save only 150 tonnes in vehicle emissions over the period, meaning 25 to 36 times as much carbon will be emitted as is saved.
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Peat drainage and destruction Drainage Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes of carbon stored in those SE Asian peatlands. Fires Many set by plantation companies, greatly accelerate the loss of carbon. Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are deforested and mostly drained.
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Agrofuels as a new driver of peatland destruction Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand. $17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian palm oil agreed this year. According to 2006 FAO report, growth in European rapeseed oil biodiesel has significantly pushed up global palm oil prices.
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Ecological Impacts Massive land use change –Renton Righelato and Dominick V. Spracklen, Science, August 2007 –Ecological restoration and forestation would sequester 2-9 more carbon than biofuels
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Greenpeace report Where can big emissions be cut quickly and cost effectively? CUT deforestation – 2Gt CO2 / yr STOP SE ASIA Peat fires – 1.3Gt Regenerate peat lands – 0.5Gt –8% of current GHGs
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Massive land-use change in global South, and crop commodity traffic Massive emission exports from industralised nations to global South
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Emission trickery Exporting emissions from Northern transport to Southern agriculture and landuse NB: Soil + Peat not included
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Certification context Governments’ response to no public policy debate is to develop ‘certification schemes’ or ‘sustainability criteria’ Calls for international scheme (UK Govt., Ford etc)
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Certification schemes Greenhouse gas (GHG) balances –URGENT need for full lifecycle, whole system (macro) carbon balance studies Direct and indirect environmental impacts: Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity, water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals Direct and indirect social impacts: Poverty, land conflicts, human rights, labour, food security and sovereignty
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Sustainability criteria Driven by interests of industry and government Displacement / leakage not handled –Existing agriculture displaced by agrofuels moves into new areas Macro impacts through commodity price shifts not handled –Amazon deforestation ←→ soy price US Corn for ethanol displaces US soy => soy price –EU oilseed rape use causes palm oil prices causes palm oil expansion
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts UK RTFO and UK Policy No sustainability criteria until 2011 Holes in methodology –Only partial reporting- 50% in 2007/2008 –Peat land before 2005 ‘written off’ – yet 0.5Gt CO2 could be saved by reflooding The Palm oil from such land will be sold as ‘good’ biofuel under current UK regulation April 15 th 2008 – April Biofools Day
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 Reduce vehicle emissions by 50% - smaller, more efficient vehicles Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport from economy Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ? Current EU energy policy 90% carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY!
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts The Climate Context 1 st generation biofuels –Scientific doubt on N20 for all fuel supply chains including EU oilseed rape –Already a climate disaster Eg Indonesian peat lands Deforestation tropics Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment ready for 2 nd generation biofuels –15-20 years to develop –BUT emissions must be cut now –Biohazards (even now in R&D) –Deforestation boreal and temporate Transport sector DEMAND REDUCTION We are currently in ‘first generation’ world – there is a gap to any viable second generation – ‘first generation’ problems must be addressed NOW
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Recent Publications http://www.grain.org/seedling_files/seed-07-07-en.pdf http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/ABN_Agro.pdf http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/agrofuels_reality_check.pdf
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Recent Publications 2 http://www.oxfam.org/en/files/bn_biofuelling_poverty_0711.pdf http://tinyurl.com/3c7esphttp://tinyurl.com/3c7esp (Greenpeace) http://tinyurl.com/3archkhttp://tinyurl.com/3archk (FoEE)
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts JOIN THE BLESSED UNREST
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Social : Environmental : Indigenous The only way we are going to put out the environmental fire is to get on the social justice bus and heal our wounds, because in the end, there is only one bus.
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts BLESSED UNREST Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to biofuelwatch- email@example.com www.biofuelwatch.org.uk firstname.lastname@example.org National Week of Local Action on Agrofuels from Saturday, 26th January 2008
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Deforestation “with partial deforestation the entire landscape could become drier and a domino effect could occur producing a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole forest”. Conclusion of recent scientific conference Amazon drying out – die-back threat increasing - 120 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Amazon Deforestation and Drought Deforestation in Novo Progreso, Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts UK Government figures NOW in complete scientific doubt From LowCVP presentation to UK Bioenergy conference Sept 2007 Unaccounted for N20 ???
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Crop burning / Forest fires / Soya http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Ecological Impacts Biodiversity Biodiversity hotspots hidden by official gazetting in Malaysia/Indonesia Biofuel threat to Great Apes highlighted by Jane Goodall, Richard Leakey and others Set-aside in EU – creating a gap in environmental management 45% of Europe’s butterflies, 80% declines in bee diversity and 70% declines in the diversity of wild flowers France – little bustard,Austrian bird of prey – depend on set-aside for survival
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Bio-agrofuels are nonsense at the system level THE DILUTION FACTOR - 1% biofuels today –Assume 10% C emissions savings litre for litre –Total saving = 0.1% saving globally Most optimistic 2020 : 5% BFs – 0.5% savings Same savings can be made by: –Each driver driving 0.5% less (ie 50 miles for UK driver) –OR Each driver goes 2 mph slower –OR Tyres inflated properly 20% - 50% DEMAND REDUCTION transport sector savings could be achieved in 10-20 years –Sustainable transport, modal shift, social planning - work- home relocation etc
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Runaway Climate Change Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt Siberian Tundra melt (Methane) Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet Melting / break up of West Antartica Ice Sheet Switching off of Gulf Stream Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon sinks
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts How much warming / ghgs is safe? None! Present ‘Radiative forcings’ already over safe levels Total Greenhouse Gases – 460 ppm CO2e 2˚C warming is maximum to avoid runaway climate change – most scientists think 450-550 ppm C02e equivalents is limit Jim Hansen (NASA) says 1.8˚C max. -Siberian Tundra close to melting -C02 already emitted but not forced=0.6˚C We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago
November 2007 Biofuels and their impacts Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt Non-linear effect? National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)