Presentation on theme: "Wind Energy in Vermont: A Meteorologist’s Perspective NVDA Wind Study Committee Barton, VT 9/25/13 1 Dr. Jason Shafer Associate Professor of Atmospheric."— Presentation transcript:
Wind Energy in Vermont: A Meteorologist’s Perspective NVDA Wind Study Committee Barton, VT 9/25/13 1 Dr. Jason Shafer Associate Professor of Atmospheric Sciences Lyndon State College Jason.Shafer@lyndonstate.edu
~15 Stations in the NEK 10 with wind data All below 1400’ elevation 10 Newport Island Pond Lyndonville
Wind Rose climatology for Lyndonville, VT Source: AWS True Wind 15
16 Carrera et al. 2009 Similar to Lyndonville, the two dominant wind directions are from the south and northwest. Burlington, VT Wind Direction Frequency
Localized Effects 17
Wind Energy Production Wind energy production is very sensitive to small changes in wind speed, to the cube of the wind speed. 18
19 IPCC 2012
Fig. 2. Hourly vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed from HRD conical scans showing evening development of the LLJ near Lamar, CO, on 15 Sep 2003. Wind speed (m s −1 ) on horizontal axis, and height (m) on vertical axis. Profiles are color coded by time (UTC), which is 7 h ahead of local (mountain) standard time, so that 0100 UTC about sunset and 0700 UTC is midnight. Vertical resolution is 5 m. Turbine-rotor layer is indicated by horizontal dotted lines. (Figure courtesy of the American Meteorological Society.) Banta et al. 2013 20 One of the biggest challenges for producing accurate projections of wind resources is the assumptions made with the vertical profile with height in the lowest layer of the atmosphere; depends on the local terrain features and land-surface environment.
21 This is an example of a localized terrain effect, with the wind flow accelerating through Willoughby Gap; these nuances are impossible to know without collecting data.
Climate Change and Local Wind Resources 23
24 Cold Season Jet Stream Climatology
25 Barnes and Polvani, 2013 Literature supports a shift of the midlatitude jet stream north, in this paper showing the largest migration of the Atlantic jet in Fall and least in Winter.
26 Average: 39.5 MPH Data courtesy Mt. Washington Observatory and Plymouth State University
27 Average: 5% Data courtesy Mt. Washington Observatory and Plymouth State University
Climate Change and Wind Resources Observations: – We don’t know the answer, developing field, Global Climate Models need to be downscaled for this application – There will probably be some seasonal shift to wind resources – Year-to-year variability is larger than the long-term climate signal – There do not appear to be any long-term changes atop Mt. Washington 28
References Banta, Robert M., Yelena L. Pichugina, Neil D. Kelley, R. Michael Hardesty, W. Alan Brewer, 2013: Wind Energy Meteorology: Insight into Wind Properties in the Turbine-Rotor Layer of the Atmosphere from High-Resolution Doppler Lidar. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 883–902. Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Lorenzo Polvani, 2013: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26, 7117-7135. Carrera, Marco L., John R. Gyakum, Charles A. Lin, 2009: Observational Study of Wind Channeling within the St. Lawrence River Valley. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 2341–2361. DOE, 2013: Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather: http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/07/f2/20130716- Energy%20Sector%20Vulnerabilities%20Report.pdf http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/07/f2/20130716- Energy%20Sector%20Vulnerabilities%20Report.pdf IPCC, 2012: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press. 1088 p. Available: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special- reports/srren/SRREN_Full_Report.pdf www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special- reports/srren/SRREN_Full_Report.pdf NOAA ESRL Web Plotting Analysis Tools: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi- bin/data/composites/printpage.plhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi- bin/data/composites/printpage.pl 29