1. The Governance of Sustainable Sociotechnical Transitions: Some Lessons from the Small Aircraft Transportation System Maurie J. Cohen Sustainability Research Institute University of Leeds and Graduate Program in Environmental Policy Studies New Jersey Institute of Technology

2. Unsustainability and the Management of Sociotechnical Transitions NASA aims to improve the mobility of U.S. citizens by reducing travel time for both short and long journeys. This requires a wide range of innovations and improvements. For example, NASA is working on methods to integrate small aircraft and public use landing facilities into the National Air Transportation System to significantly reduce travel time into and out of every community. —NASA, Strategic Plan, 2000

3. Unsustainability and the Management of Sociotechnical Transitions Research on prospective transitions has tended to focus on “sustainable” sociotechnical systems.

4. Unsustainability and the Management of Sociotechnical Transitions Given the relative abundance of various ongoing unsustainable transitions and the scarcity of sustainable ones, focusing only on the latter type substantially narrows opportunities for learning.

5. Unsustainability and the Management of Sociotechnical Transitions 1. The study of unsustainable transitions can inform our understanding of how to facilitate sustainable sociotechnical transitions.

6. Unsustainability and the Management of Sociotechnical Transitions 2. The challenge of sustainability entails not only efforts to foster sustainable sociotechnical transitions; it also requires corresponding strategies to bend what are otherwise unsustainable trends. Source: Climate Protection Campaign

7. Unsustainability and the Management of Sociotechnical Transitions 3. From the consumption side, all consumers are not equal; affluent consumers have unique ability to shape sociotechnical transitions and their practices demand a special measure of attention.

8. The New Aeromobility

9. Contemporary Aviation Trends of Relevance to Scholars and Policymakers Interested in Sociotechnical Transitions Long-distance commuting by air (e.g., work in London; live in New York). Frequent air travel to holiday/weekend-home destinations. Proliferation of discount airlines (e.g., Ryan Air, Easy Jet, Jet Blue). Increasing congestion as aviation system reaches operational capacity (not unlike the surface transport system). Expansion of personal (customized) aeromobility services.

10. Personal Aeromobility Private jets

11. Personal Aeromobility Source: National Business Aviation Association

12. Personal Aeromobility Fractional ownership schemes

13. Personal Aeromobility Source: National Business Aviation Association

14. Personal Aeromobility Flight-time cards

15. Personal Aeromobility Air taxis

16. Small Aircraft Transportation System Implement in the near term a new system of aviation based on the use of a new generation of microjets (2-10 passengers + hired pilot). Utilize the existing network of small and underutilized community- based airports (approximately 5,000 in the US alone). Provide on-demand, point-to-point service. Develop over the longer term (25 years) the operational controls and ancillary technologies for a small aircraft transportation system based on self-piloted airplanes.

17. Small Aircraft Transportation System National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) (approximately 3300 facilities)

18. Small Aircraft Transportation System Implement in the near term a new system of aviation based on the use of a new generation of microjets (2-10 passengers + hired pilot). Utilize the existing network of small and underutilized community- based airports (approximately 5,000 in the US alone). Provide on-demand, point-to-point service. Develop over the longer term (25 years) the operational controls and ancillary technologies for a small aircraft transportation system based on self-piloted airplanes.

19. Personal Aeromobility While this vision obviously stands in opposition to conventional perspectives of a “sustainable” mobility future, it would seem to be no less plausible an alternative.

20. Sociotechnical Transitions and Expert Assessment Expert assessment is an institutionalized aspect of research and development programming.

21. Sociotechnical Transitions and Expert Assessment Effective governance of sociotechnical transitions involves periodic appraisal by expert panels and the decisions of these committees can be critical to the viability of long-term R&D programs.

22. National Research Council Study of SATS

23. Cognitive Traps and Long-Term R&D Programs A cognitive trap is a bias in analytic perspective or a lapse in interpretive judgment that stems from an overly insular framing of the issues at hand.

24. Seven Generic “Traps” Associated with the Expert Assessment of Long-Term R&D Programs Trap of Disciplinary Reductionism Trap of Economic Determinism Trap of Contemporary Immutability Trap of Political Neutrality Trap of Societal Rigidity Trap of Sociological Indifference Trap of Historical Blindness

25. 1. Trap of Disciplinary Reductionism Singular emphasis on discipline-focused methods of inquiry and poor understanding of systems—particularly the interface between technological and social systems.

26. 2. Trap of Economic Determinism False presumption that human behavior is exclusively guided by economic decision making.

27. 3. Trap of Contemporary Immutability The doubtful notion that the future will be essentially like the present and such circumstances make straight-line extrapolations an acceptable methodological approach.

28. 4. Trap of Political Neutrality The claim that engineered configurations and regulatory systems are politically neutral assemblages comprised of technical components and apolitical rule-making decisions.

29. 5. Trap of Social Rigidity Misconception that social organization and prevailing political commitments are more or less indomitable and that human beings have poor capacity for resilience and malleability.

30. 6. Trap of Sociological Indifference A preoccupation with economically motivated behavior can contribute to a blinkered understanding of the socially informed drivers that animate human actions (e.g., status striving, conspicuous consumption, mimetic performance).

31. 7. Trap of Historical Blindness Failure to give credence to historical precedents and how sociotechnical systems have evolved in the past. Norman Bel Geddes' Flying Car, 1945

32. Sociotechnical Transitions and Expert Assessment How should we design “best practice” procedures for conducting expert assessments of sociotechnical transitions? Mobilize a broadly constituted range of expertise. Combine disciplinary depth and interdisciplinary breadth. Design institutional frameworks that facilitate the evenhanded airing of perspectives. Foster capacity among participants for reflexivity regarding their own organizational dynamics.