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Prime Time By the numbers… Beth Walsh, PBS Craig Reed, TRAC.

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Presentation on theme: "Prime Time By the numbers… Beth Walsh, PBS Craig Reed, TRAC."— Presentation transcript:

1 Prime Time By the numbers… Beth Walsh, PBS Craig Reed, TRAC

2 Question 1 I'd like to see that five-year trend focusing on GRPS and cumes with a lens on prime time and the NPS. As we see the national numbers continuing to trend downward, what's the thinking at PBS, can it be reversed? Leveled? As a corollary, are there local examples of schedules and strategies that have done so?

3 Average GRPs from Stable Markets Prime Time – minus 5% Whole Day – Minus 14%

4 WGBH Prime Time Ratings & Cumes Note: Household ratings an average of four major sweeps each year

5 Over Five Seasons 03-04 to 07-08 Prime Time Percent Change Primary Stations

6 Household Reach Trend NTI weekly time period cumes, 8 sample weeks per season, PBS Research, 9/2/08.

7 Theories on the Incredible Shrinking Cume Lack of station encoding Fragmenting and digital readiness Programming decisions / declining corporate support

8 National Panel Changes '03-04'04-05'05-06'06-07'07-08 In-Tab 50356748833187989406 Public TV Stations 1.7 LPM Markets 1.2

9 Question 2 Are Public Affairs programs scheduled on Friday night because they work there or because nothing else will? The commercial stations schedule public affairs programming on weekend mornings, PBS has continued to buck that trend. Is it still the right decision or should we move on?

10 Ratings Under-Perform vs. HUTs PTV Ratings Indexed to HUTs, Oct 2008

11 Weekend News Analysis Network Ratings HH AA% MEET THE PRESS2.6 FACE THE NATION1.9 THIS WEEK1.9 Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, 2007-08.

12 Question 3 I'd like to know more about pledge erosion (or the effects of pledging often). Does our regular audience fall off after a pledge drive, and if so, by how much? This could also tie in with the CPB research that indicated people wanted a "regular" schedule. What happens when we preempt the "regular" schedule for whatever reason (pledge, NPS stunt)?

13 Post-Pledge Ratings Recover Quickly Pledge

14 Question 4 Why do we continue to see multi-night programming stunts when previous CPB and PBS audience research indicated that it was ineffective. Wouldn't water-cooler talk over 5 weeks be preferable to viewer drop off by the third night of a 5-night stunt? If we have research, we aren't we using the results?

15 Ongoing and Limited Series Ratings Fall Averages Among Stable Set of Markets

16 Stunts Through the Ages Drop-off from First to Final Part 1990’s2 Nights5+ Nights STUNT-5%STUNT-13% WEEKLY-5%WEEKLY-32% 2007 & 20082 Nights5+ Nights STUNT-11%STUNT-37% WEEKLY-11%WEEKLY-15%

17 Stunts Through the Ages Percent of Series Viewed Historical5+ Nights STUNT21% WEEKLY17% 2007 & 20085+ Nights The War18% Carrier17% Crossroads12%

18 Question 5 I wonder what happens post digital transition.... how will Nielsen deal with the massive confusion, audience disruptions, etc etc? Exactly what are Nielsen's plans for "March '09" sweeps and beyond? Will their info be accurate or relevant after the transition?

19 Methods Changes are Prep Work A/P Meter Encoders Area Probability Sampling Reporting of Additional Stations

20 Digital Readiness of U.S. TV Households Completely Unready Any Unready May-089.8%11.9% Oct-087.7%10.7%

21 Digital Readiness of U.S. TV Households Hispanic Unready Non-Hispanic Unready May-0814.4%9.2% Oct-0812.4%7.1%

22 Digital Readiness of U.S. TV Households HOH <35 Unready HOH 35-54 Unready HOH 55+ Unready May-0812.4%9.6%8.7% Oct-0810.6%7.3%6.4%

23 PBS Viewing from “Unready” Sets DaypartDigital StatusP 2+C 2-11T 12-17P 18+P 18-34P 35-54P 55+ FULL DAY Ready Sets0. Unready Sets0. % of AA to Unready Sets28%36%42%25%34%29%20% PRIME TIME Ready Sets0.420.06 0.530.110.331.15 Unready Sets0. % of AA to Unready Sets21%34%19%21%27%26%18%

24 National Measurement Post-Transition All stations must install a digital encoder Nielsen will measure one primary digital channel per PBS member station –Recommendation: Stations should designate one primary digital channel that carries the entire NPS schedule – children’s, prime time, late-night, and weekends. Nielsen will track only those programs fed and encoded by PBS for the feed week –Recommendation: For complete national program ratings, all stations should carry the episode fed by PBS.

25 National Measurement Post-Transition All programming must be carried within seven days of the feed from PBS to get credited toward the national program rating. –Recommendation: All stations should observe a broadcast window of seven days from the national feed by PBS. Nielsen will only incorporate the HD viewing of program if the entire schedule on the HD channel is an exact simulcast of the primary signal –Recommendation: If stations have an HD channel apart from their primary channel, the program schedule should be an exact simulcast.

26 PBS NSI Rep Multicast channels measured? –Contact rep now Calibration, new contract and prep needed Otherwise Nielsen is ready

27 Question 6 The one thing I would like to have discussed is how Nielsen is gathering ratings data in terms of repeats, DVR's, VOD, etc. and how it is used by other broadcasters/cable to sell commercial time and how PBS or producing stations are using it in the area of program/series funding.

28 Live +7 July ’07 analysis of five stations showed: –Whole day increase of 3% –Prime time at +4% Most recorded –Prime time, kids, weekend daytime –Also – Britcoms, daytime news

29 TAMi (Total Audience Measure index) NBC adding all exposure of shows on 5 platforms –broadcast –Free internet streaming (definition of stream) –Paid downloads –Video on demand –Mobile viewing

30 TAMi Heros first episode: –Broadcast – 11.2 million viewers –3.1 million streams –15,306 downloads –5,627 video on demand –18,306 mobile views

31 National Nielsen Measures Used Live, Live+same day, Live+3, Live+7 C3 – Commercial Minute Rating that includes 3 days of time-shifted viewing PBS – Seven-day tracking using Live+7 data set VOD – measured by Nielsen, PBS does not subscribe

32 Question 7 I'd like some data on LPM markets. How are they faring compared to non-LPM, are rebounds happening for stations, are there any "successful" LPM markets and if so, what are they doing? How do we interpret data in this "apples" and "oranges" world (i.e., do we only compare to other LPM markets or is it still relevant on some level to compare to Portland)? That kind of thing.

33 ‘03-04 LPM Markets: NY, LA, CH, SF Prime Time GRPs

34 2005-06 LPM Market: Alanta Prime Time GRPs

35 Question 8 When do we stop talking about ratings (what's the magic number....below a 1 average) and really talk only about being a "public service" media?

36 Discovery – 15 Channels Discovery Channels – Larger Audiences Note: 05-06 prime time ratings – PTV earned 1.5 that season

37 Discovery Bubble Chart DISC TLC APL TRAV Men Women Older Younger % Age 50+ % Women

38 `

39 Context is Key The actual rating is not as important as the relative size What share keeps us relevant? Setting expectations post-transition

40 End

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