Threats are drivers of Global Environmental Change Gaston et al. 2008. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 39: 93-113 Reduction or Loss of Species in Protected Areas 22% Habitat Change Fire, prescribed burning, elephant damage, habitat loss and quality, starvation, declining resources 3% Climate Change Drought 6% Invasive species Fish stocking, bush encroachment 25% Over-Exploitation Hunting, removals for translocation 3% Pollution Affects resource availability 13% Disease 10% Predation 13% Unknown 54 % of cases involved more than one driver
Ocean acidification Since 1970 pH dropped by 0.1 Sea-level rise Cost 5-10% GDP Africa 75-250 million people water stress by 2020 Rural agricultural yield drop by 50% by 2020 5-8% more arid land by 2080 Climate Change as a Driver Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC): 4 th Report 2007
Plants on the move Moving upslope Moving downslope Number of species Altitudinal shift (m) 43% Ave. = 69m Le Roux & McGeoch 2008. Global Change Biology 14: 2950-2962 Biodiversity consequences of Climate Change
Over-exploitation as a Driver What does it mean? Populations harvested unsustainably - Reproduction cannot compensate for mortalities Wilcove et al. 1998. BioScience 48: 607-615 - Resource quality change Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2007 Conceptual driver Tragedy of the commons - Increase of individual resources - e.g. herd of cows - Detriment of common resources - e.g. communal fodder Hardin 1968. Science 162: 1243-1248 Frank et al. 2005. Science 308: 1621–1623
Dealing with threats Climate change– land expansion Invasive species– regulatory and restoration Over-exploitation – regulatory and restoration Pollution – regulatory and restoration Disease – regulatory and scenarios Habitat change – protection and restoration Essentially a social problem growth of human populations per capita consumption Rands et al. 2010. Science 329: 1298-1303
Integrate conservation friendly land-uses Socio-economic-ecological complexity Conservationists are negotiators Diversify approaches MISSION To manage Golden Gate Highlands National Park in a collaborative learning environment as part of an ecologically functional and sustainable patchwork of different land uses in the region that ensures the persistence of the natural and cultural heritage for the benefit and enjoyment of all. SANParks 2009. Pretoria.
Make links and manage causal mechanisms Objectives and outcomes Drivers and indicators - impacts on biodiversity - tall trees - aesthetics - conflict Mechanisms and modulators - how they use space - water directly modulates - density may override this Management responses Induce predation Induce dispersal Mimic predation Mimic dispersal Manipulate births Manipulate deaths Restore space Manipulate resource Exclude resource Rotate resource Exclude impact Objectives Ecosystem Abiotic – soil nutrients Decomposers – millipedes Producers – vegetation Consumers – birds Species of Concern Rare species Endemic species Stakeholders Perceptions Complaints Tourists Satisfaction Revisits Drivers and indicators Elephants Patch density Fragstats Large trees Size distribution Stakeholders Wildlife conflict Damage to crops Mammals Sightings Diversity Tourist effort Mechanisms and modulators Elephants Home range overlap Season distribution Direct modulator Water availability Fence distribution Indirect modulator Abundance Density Humans Landscape use Monitoring needs Gaylard & Ferreira 2010. Koedoe. Submitted