Presentation on theme: "Participatory Modelling of Wellbeing Tradeoffs in Coastal Kenya Tradeoffs, optimising and thinking outside the triangle Tim Daw, Sara Coulthard, William."— Presentation transcript:
1 Participatory Modelling of Wellbeing Tradeoffs in Coastal Kenya Tradeoffs, optimising and thinking outside the triangleTim Daw, Sara Coulthard, William Cheung, Kate Brown, Tim McClanahan, Diego Galafassi, Caroline Abunge, Johnstone Omukoto Omuhaya, Garry Peterson, Carlos Ruiz, Amini Tengeza, Lydiah Munyi
2 Ecosystem Services and Well-being ‘Unnatural Capital’:LabourTechnology‘WB Context’:Basic needs & aspirations‘Multipliers’MarketsValuesNatural CapitalHuman WellbeingGoodsAccess & DistributionPotentialBenefitsMillennium Assessment definition is about WBRelationship is poorly understood and contingent on many factorsAggregated analysis can’t say much about WB
3 Trade-offs in Ecosystem Services (& Fisheries) Common focus on win-winAlignment between conservation, and wellbeingTrade-offs often not consideredWins & losses for particular groups may be hidden
5 (workshop activities) Aim: to test a framework to identify trade-offs between ES and wellbeing of different stakeholdersParticipatoryprocesses(workshop activities)-Social-ecologicalsystem models-ScenariosKenyanCasestudyEcological ModelingWellbeingResearch(focus groups)
6 Ecological modelling Ecopath network model Ecological ModelingTwo biophysical models of the reef/fishery- Ecopath with Ecosim- Stella model of reef dynamicsSpecific QuestionsEcosystem service deliveryFishEnvironmental qualityEffects of fishing by different gearsEcopath network model
7 Tradeoffs in the fishery (Ecopath optimisations) EconomicProfitsEcologicalstatusFoodproductionBeachSeineOtherGearsBut what are the wellbeing implications of these trade-offs?
8 Things that are important for living well Wellbeing researchWellbeingresearchFocus on fisheries stakeholdersMulti-gear users (hand line, spear gun, nets, traps),Beach seine fishermenBeach seine captainsWomen fishmongersMale fish tradersWhat is wellbeing for these people?How easy is it to be well?Things that are important for living wellMoneyGood job‘A developmental mind’ (knowledge, education)SavingsPropertyDonor/ start capitalDecision-making capacityPlanningGood fishing gearsHealthGood neighbours
9 Implications for different markets Different stakeholders rely on different types of fish.‘Mama karangas’ buy small fish (mostly caught by beach seine) to process and sell to local residentsA better ecological condition would result in larger fish which would enter higher value markets e.g. hotels.
10 Participatory Processes Secondary stakeholders (government, NGOs, representatives)Conceptual model’ of the broader systemTrends, drivers, possible future scenarios & surprises
11 System modelling Fuzzy logic system model implemented in Excel Iteration with stakeholders who provided improvementsCan demonstrate the toy model.
12 Trade-offs as described by ‘Toy Model’ Optimise for 1 group or objectiveTry to balance for 2 groups, or objectivesIs there a tradeoff? What shape?So can see tradeoffs, can identify blocking stakeholders who’s WB is affected for system to move forward. Can identify vulnerable groups and limits.
13 What the model can explore Alternative jobsin EconomyBalancing/ optimisingBeach Seine EffortWhat about changing the system?What about human agency, responses and feedback in the system?What about other stakeholders, other variables?These figures illustrate the nature of TOs.
14 ScenariosStakeholder conceptual modelDrivers exerciseSecondary data
15 Explore Scenarios with primary and secondary stakeholders LikelihoodImplications for wellbeingWinners and losersResponsesFinally policy options considering all the above...
16 Policy Responses to the Scenarios, considering trade-offs Example group discussion on Scenario C: GrowthAction: Enforce regulationsLosers: Beach seine fishers and women fishmongersFacilitate alternative livelihoodsWomen fishmongers are marginalised and hard to integrate into alternativesResponse: legislation to promote access to fish for women fishmongers, or fish pricesResultant trade-off: Fishermen and women fishmongersMost of our scenarios went beyond the model parameters and relationships. E.g. Aquaculture, offshore fisheries.
17 ConclusionsTrade-offs and modelling lens to understand hard choices within the systemExplicitly consider trade-offsA wellbeing angle emphasises trade offs between different groupsIdentify most vulnerable to changeIdentify groups likely to block changeScenarios allow thinking outside the modeladditional variables and stakeholdersconsideration of how to ‘transform’ the system Thinking outside the triangle...
18 Many thanksEcosystem Services and Poverty Allevaition (ESPA programme)Wildlife Conservation SocietyKMFRI, Kenyan Fisheries Department, Kenya Wildlife ServicesAll workshop and focus group participants