1. Road to horizon in e-learning Włodzimierz Sobkowiak IFA, 15/3/2007

2. Summary Status quo: Online education in the US, 2006 Status quo: Online education in the US, 2006 Road ahead: The horizon report, 2007 Road ahead: The horizon report, 2007 Technologies to watch Technologies to watch User-created content User-created content Social networking Social networking Road beyond horizon Road beyond horizon

3. Making the Grade Online Education in the United States, 2006

4. Has the growth of online enrollments begun to plateau? Nearly 3.2 million students were taking at least one online course during the fall 2005 term, a substantial increase over the 2.3 million reported the previous year.

5. What types of institutions have online offerings? More than 96 percent of the very largest institutions have some online offerings.

6. What are the barriers to widespread adoption of online education? Nearly two-thirds of the academic leaders cite the need for more discipline on the part of online students as a critical barrier. Nearly two-thirds of the academic leaders cite the need for more discipline on the part of online students as a critical barrier. Faculty issues, both acceptance of online and the need for greater time and effort to teach online, are also important barriers. Faculty issues, both acceptance of online and the need for greater time and effort to teach online, are also important barriers.

8. THE HORIZON REPORT The environment of higher education is changing rapidly. Costs are rising, budgets are shrinking, and the demand for new services is growing. Student enrollments are declining. There is an increasing need for distance education, with pressure coming not only from nontraditional students seeking flexible options, but from administrative directives to cut costs. The “shape” of the average student is changing, too; more students are working and commuting than ever before, and the residential, full- time student is not necessarily the model for today’s typical student. Higher education faces competition from the for-profit educational sector and an increasing demand by students for instant access and interactive experiences.

9. Technologies to watch (1) The technologies featured in the 2007 Horizon Report are placed along three adoption horizons that represent what the Advisory Board considers likely timeframes for their widespread adoption on university campuses. The first adoption horizon assumes the likelihood of broad adoption within the next year; the second, adoption within two to three years, and the third, adoption within four to five years.

10. Technologies to watch (2) User-created content (adoption horizon: 1 year) User-created content (adoption horizon: 1 year) Social networking (adoption horizon: 1 year) Social networking (adoption horizon: 1 year) Mobile phones (adoption horizon: 2/3 years) Mobile phones (adoption horizon: 2/3 years) Virtual worlds (adoption horizon: 2/3 years) Virtual worlds (adoption horizon: 2/3 years) The new scholarship and emerging forms of publication (adoption horizon: 4/5 years) The new scholarship and emerging forms of publication (adoption horizon: 4/5 years) Massively multiplayer educational gaming (adoption horizon: 4/5 years) Massively multiplayer educational gaming (adoption horizon: 4/5 years)

11. User-created content It’s all about the audience, and the “audience” is no longer merely listening. User-created content is all around us, from blogs and photostreams to wikibooks and machinima clips. Small tools and easy access have opened the doors for almost anyone to become an author, a creator, or a filmmaker. These bits of content represent a new form of contribution and an increasing trend toward authorship that is happening at almost all levels of experience. bits of contentbits of content

12. Social networking Increasingly, this is the reason students log on. The websites that draw people back again and again are those that connect them with friends, colleagues, or even total strangers who have a shared interest. Social networking may represent a key way to increase student access to and participation in course activities. It is more than just a friends list; truly engaging social networking offers an opportunity to contribute, share, communicate, and collaborate. social networkingsocial networking

13. Road beyond horizon "This Polish syndrome gets worse with age. With growing age young Poles trust each other and cooperate less and less. Current research demonstrates very well that the level of trust, to be followed by readiness to common activity, is impressive with younger teens, but with older teens goes down gradually to that of adults" (Szkoła bez przemocy project, November 2006 - March 2007, prof. Janusz Czapliński) common activitycommon activity

14. Thank you! This presentation is available at: http://ifa.amu.edu.pl/~swlodek