1. From Yugoslavia to the European Union: 20 Years after 1991 - The Tale of Two Generations SOCIO-POLITICAL PERCEPTIONS OF TWO GENERATIONS (1971/1991) IN THE WESTERN BALKANS (conducted in October 2011) The Balkans in the Globalized World Fostering the Region’s European Agenda 8 – 9 June 2012 Sofia (Bulgaria)

2. The year 2011 marked the twentieth anniversary of the dissolution of the Yugoslav federation – two decades of wars and conflicts that left a deep scar on the Balkans and its people. The many analyses of events, leadership, or transformation processes have often overlooked the human dimension of regional disintegration. The last Yugoslav generation of 1971 was in its formative years when the conflicts started, the first twenty years of its adult life cut short by wars. Those born in 1991 are too young to remember conflicts, war and the fall of the old system. Isolated from each other, they are now coming of age to shape the future of their countries A survey with the title “From Yugoslavia to the European Union: 20 Years after 1991 – The Tale of Two Generations” commissioned by the European Fund for the Balkans within its Supporting Policy Development Programme examined the perceptions of these two generations. The results of the survey are provided at the Fund’s interactive web based platform (http://balkanfund.org/spd/?page_id=148) where you can look at the results and examine them using charts, maps and greed. Also, there is a possibility of comparing the results from different countries and from different generations within the same or different countries.http://balkanfund.org/spd/?page_id=148 Supporting Policy Development is a programme by the European Fund for the Balkans which seeks to serve policy researchers, think tanks, NGO’s, and governments, who are interested to be engaged in the policy developments and the EU integration process in the Western Balkans. The programme aims to facilitate the transfer of knowledge and expertise based on evidence based approach for addressing complex societal challenges the countries of the region are facing on their way to EU membership. 2 INTRODUCTION

3. METHODOLOGY 3

4. METHODOLOGY – SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZEALBB&HCROKOSMACMNESRBTotal Planed sample size240720320240 3202320 Realised sample size2517703202602632623422468 SAMPLE SIZE per generation ALB B&H Bosniak B&H Croats B&H Serbs CROKOSMACMNESRB Generation 719171917191719171917191719171917191 Realised sample size 128123127129131130125128160 129131 132127135178164 NOTE: Due to noticeable differences in the attitudes between the three ethnic groups in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the results for this country are presented separately for each of the ethnic groups generation-wise, and separately for Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation and Bosnia and Herzegovina Republic of Srpska, on the level of the total for the country. 4

5. CROATIA ZAGREB MONTENEGR O PODGORICA ALBANIA TIRANA SERBIA BELGRADE B&H SARAJEVO WESTERN BALKANS: DIFFERENCES & COMPLEXITY OF THE WB REGION KOSOVO PRISTINE MACEDONIA SKOPJE 7-8 countries 23 M inhabitants (& with a lot of common history & 700 000 kids from mixed marriages) 7 nationalities (major) 1:5 ppp GDP per capita 1: 11 # of inhabitants 7 official languages (4 do not need mutual translations) 6 currencies 3 religions 2 alphabets 8 pairs of nations were in a wars during nineties SLOVENIA LJUBLJANA 5

6. 6 WESTERN BALKANS: PPP GDP PER CAPITA: INTERRUPTED GROWTH – 2009/2008 (LAGGING IN & LAGGING OUT OF THE CRISIS ) Source: Ipsos SM estimates GDP is not the only parameter which dropped: ____________________  Real salaries also plunged in the entire region  Inflation rose in some countries  In 2009 & 2012 the exchange rate weakened (in some countries with national currency …)  Exchange rate was of special importance - particularly in Serbia (which still remembers the 1993/94 hyper inflation of 4% per hour)

7. BELIEVE IT OR NOT: THAT LIFE WOULD BE BETTER IF THE SFRY HAD SURVIVED With the exception of Kosovo and to some extend Croatia, the majority of (20 and 40 year old) people in the former SFRY countries believe that life would be better if the SFRY had survived with the same political system as in Tito’s time !!! Differences are by country and not by generation (i.e. opinion is driven by the country of residence …and this is a general trend!!!) 7

8. With the exception of Kosovo and to some extend Croatia, the majority of (20 and 40 year old) people in the former SFRY countries believe that life would be better if the SFRY had survived with the same political system as in Tito’s time Q: In your opinion, what would life in our country be like if Yugoslavia (SFRY) had survived with the same political system and the same relationships between republics (current independent countries) as existed in the period of Tito's reign 8

9. With the exception of Kosovo and to some extend Croatia, the majority of (20 and 40 year old) people in the former SFRY countries believe that life would be better if the SFRY had survived with the same political system as in Tito’s time Q:In your opinion, what would life in our country be like if Yugoslavia (SFRY) had survived with the same political system and the same relationships between republics (current independent countries) as existed in the period of Tito's reign 9

10. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOSOVO AND CROATIA, MAJORITY OF THE (20 and 40 year old) CITIZENS FROM EX SFRY COUNTRIES BELIEVE THAT THEIR PARENTS LIVED BETTER THAN THEY LIVE TODAY In comparison with how you live today, how do you think that your parents lived? 10

11. NEVERTHELESS, A GOOD PORTION OF (20 and 40 year old) POPULATION, PARTICULARLY IN CROATIA, BELIEVE THAT DISINTEGRATION OF FORMER STATE WAS INEVITABLE, AND THAT IT WOULDN’T HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE TO PREVENT IT AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THE CONVICTION REMAINS THAT WAR COULD HAVE BEEN PREVENTED Some people think that warfare in the 90-ties could have been prevented, while other sthink that it was impossible. Which of these two attitudes is closer to your own? 11

12. WHOM TO BLAME FOR THE WARFARE Huge difference by countries: Responses are divided about whom to blame for the warfare – in Croatia, the majority blame the political leaders; in Kosovo, they predominantly blame the people; while in Albania, B&H, Macedonia, and Serbia, most lay the blame on the international community (no difference by generations) Milošević is by far the most blamed among politicians – and in Kosovo, territory of FBH and Albania he is practically the only one politician whom they blame. In Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro and territory of RS – responsibility is spited, and only in the territory of RS Milošević is not the most responsible. 12

13. Respondents are divided in their opinions as to where the blame lies for the warfare – in Croatia, the majority blame the political leaders; in Kosovo, they predominantly blame the people; while in Albania, B&H, Macedonia, and Serbia, most lay the blame on the international community Q: In your opinion, who is the most responsible for the outbreak of conflicts and warfare on the territory of the ex-SFRY in the 1990s? 13

14. Most of those who think that political leaders were the responsible ones lay the blame on Slobodan Milosevic, with the exception of respondents from Republic of Srpska, who more often place the blame on Tudjman (and Izetbegović) Political leader Multiple answers; Base: those who think that a political leader is the most responsible for the outbreak of conflicts and warfare on the territory of the ex- SFRY in the 1990s % of the most frequent answers 5151 5151 30 27 29 15 22 % of people who think that political leaders were the responsible 14

15. MISTRUST AND COMON CULTURE AMONG (20 and 40 year old) PEOPLE OF DIFFERENT ETHNICITIES In general, there is a lot of mistrust among people of different ethnicities that lived together in the former SFRY. „Volume“ of TRUST is the highest in territory of FBH and Macedonia – and the lowest in Serbia and Kosovo. An extremely small number of people perceive the seven countries of the Western Balkans as a single cultural area. The most frequent number of groups in which the countries were classified is 3, in Albania and Montenegro, and 4, in most of the countries treated as culturally homogeneous Cultural identification with other Western Balkan nations when it comes to music, literature, art, and entertainment is the strongest in Kosovo and Macedonia and the weakest in Croatia (not in Albania!) 15

16. In general, there is a lot of mistrust among (20 and 40 year old) people of different ethnicities that lived together in the former SFRY Q:In your opinion, to what extent can the peoples that lived together in the ex-SFRY be trusted today? – % CAN BE TRUSTED (mainly + completely) 16

17. Extremely small number of people perceive the seven countries of the Western Balkans as a single cultural area: 6% in B&H Federation, 2% each in Montenegro and Macedonia, and 1% each in Croatia and Serbia. The most frequent number of groups in which the countries were classified is 3, in Albania and Montenegro, and 4, in most of the countries. Q:If you were to group Western Balkan countries according to how close they are culturally, how would you group them? Which countries, in your opinion, are close enough culturally to be classified in the same group? Number of groups in which countries were classified 17

18. Cultural identification with other Western Balkan nations when it comes to music, literature, art, and entertainment is the strongest in Kosovo and Macedonia and the weakest in Croatia Q:When it comes to culture, i.e. music, literature, art, and entertainment in general, to what extent would you say that you share the culture with the other Western Balkan countries? 18

19. 19 The most noticeable generational differences are seen in Kosovo (with the oposit pattern of all the rest) where younger generations feel less that they share the culture in terms of music, literature, art and entertainment with the other Western Balkan countries Q:When it comes to culture, i.e. music, literature, art, and entertainment in general, to what extent would you say that you share the culture with the other Western Balkan countries?

20. EAGERNESS TO VISIT THE EX-SFRY COUNTRIES Quite a substantial number of (20 and 40 year old) people who express eagerness to visit the ex-SFRY countries have not had the chance to visit yet - most of whom in Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo and the least in Croatia and Albania The younger generation in all of the countries is at least somewhat more eager to visit the other countries in the region 20

21. Quite a substantial number of people who express eagerness to visit the ex-SFRY countries have not had the chance to visit yet - most of whom in Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo and the least in Croatia and Albania Q:And how eager are you personally to visit the other ex-SFRY countries and Albania (the question for respondents that visited some of the countries referred to the countries they have not already been to) and to meet people who live there? 21

22. 22 The younger generation in all of the countries is at least somewhat more eager to visit the other countries in the region Q:And how eager are you personally to visit the other ex-SFRY countries and Albania (the question for respondents that visited some of the countries referred to the countries they have not already been to) and to meet people who live there?

23. ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE EU Citizens (20 and 40 year old) of Western Balkans do wish to visit the EU countries, and somewhat more willing to do that are younger generations Younger generations in almost all countries are more willing to visit the EU countries Majority of (20 and 40 year old) citizens support joining the EU, and somewhat more skeptic than others are citizens of Croatia and Serbia 23

24. 24 CITIZENS OF WESTERN BALKANS DO WISH TO VISIT THE EU COUNTRIES, AND SOMEWHAT MORE WILLING TO DO THAT ARE YOUNGER GENERATIONS To what extent do you wish to visit any of the EU countries?

25. 25 YOUNGER GENERATIONS IN ALMOST ALL COUNTRIES ARE MORE WILLING TO VISIT THE EU COUNTRIES To what extent do you wish to visit any of the EU countries?

26. 26 MAJORITY SUPPORTS JOINING THE EU, AND SOMEWHAT MORE SKEPTIC THAN OTHERS ARE CITIZENS OF CROATIA AND SERBIA Do you support or oppose your country joining the EU?

27. LIVING STANDARD AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ‘ Average’ is the most frequent evaluation of one’s own living standards in all of the countries except Kosovo, the only country where a majority of (20 and 40 year old) respondents evaluated their living standards as good (comparing with countries average) The younger generations in Croatia and Serbia have more positive attitudes towards the international community’s curent role in their countries than the older ones, and this difference is especially noticeable in Croatia (although in both countries are more skeptical regarding EU) Majority think that it is not likely a new armed conflict between countries of the Western Balkans could break out, but those from Serbia, and Macedonia are less sure of it than those in the other countries 27

28. Q:How would you evaluate your own and your family’s living standards? ‘Average’ is the most frequent evaluation of one’s own living standards in all of the countries except Kosovo, the only country where a majority of respondents evaluated their living standards as good 28

29. The younger generations in Croatia and Serbia have more positive attitudes towards the international community’s role in their countries than the older ones, and this difference is especially noticeable in Croatia Q:And what is your opinion about the international community’s current role in our country? Some people think that the international community interferes too much in their country's internal affairs, while others think that the international community has a positive role in the country when it comes to the development of democratic institutions and the launch of reforms. Which opinion is closer to your own? 29

30. 30 Majority think that it is not likely a new armed conflict between countries of the Western Balkans could break out, but those from Serbia, and Macedonia are less sure of it than those in the other countries And how likely or unlikely do you think the outbreak of new armed conflicts between certain Western Balkan countries is in the coming three to five years? 30

31. Prof. Dr Srdjan Bogosavljević Director, Ipsos Strategic Marketing Gavrila Principa 8, Belgrade, Serbia Direct: +381 11 263 4161 Mobile: +381 63 232727 psrdjan.bogosavljevic@ipsos.com http://www.ipsos.com Home of Researchers http://www.ipsos.com Thank you