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Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Natural Gas Demand in the APEC Region Shiro KONISHI General Manager Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) APEC.

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Presentation on theme: "Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Natural Gas Demand in the APEC Region Shiro KONISHI General Manager Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) APEC."— Presentation transcript:

1 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Natural Gas Demand in the APEC Region Shiro KONISHI General Manager Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) APEC EGCFE Workshop 2005 Taipei, Chinese Taipei 21 – 23 March 2005 11

2 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Natural gas supply/demand outlook Gas market reform in the APEC region Key factors affecting the gas market Notable development in APEC Summary Outline of Presentation

3 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre APEC Regional Grouping Russia Japan Korea Chinese Taipei Philippines USA Mexico Canada Chile Peru New Zealand Australia China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Papua New Guinea Brunei Darussalam Hong Kong, China North America Oceania Latin America Northeast Asia Southeast Asia

4 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Gas Trade Flows in APEC Region Russia Japan Korea Chinese Taipei Philippines USA Mexico Canada Chile Peru New Zealand Australia China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Papua New Guinea Brunei Darussalam Hong Kong, China Southeast Asia LNG Gas Consumer Pipeline Gas Consumer LNG Gas Consumer

5 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Russia 2.0 % China 8.3 % Oceania 2.6 % SE Asia 3.9% NE Asia 3.3% Latin America 6.3% North America 1.8 % Gas Demand to increase at AAGR of 2.6% (1999-2020) Natural Gas Demand in APEC Region

6 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre China L America NE Asia SE Asia 8.3 3.9 3.3 6.3 2.6 1.8 Source: APERC Natural Gas Demand in APEC Region China to command the highest AAGR at 8.3% (2000-2020)

7 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Source: APERC Emerging demand from China and North America Increasing demand mainly driven by Power Sector Contribution to Incremental Gas Demand (1999-2020)

8 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Oil Coal 1135 1951 NRE 1.1 % Nuclear 1.7 % Hydro 2.7 % Gas 2.6 % Oil 2.1 % Coal 2.1 % Gas TPES to increase at AAGR of 2.1% between 1999-2020 Source: APERC Primary Energy Supply in APEC Region

9 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Technology CCGT (Combined-Cycle gas turbine): thermal efficiency of over 50% Environmental Issue: Kyoto Protocol / Climate Change Power Generation A fastest growth rate of 4.1% than coal Increasing share of gas used for power N.Z.(31.7-66.9%), China (18.4%-46.8%), C.T.(51-71%) Increasing share of electricity from Gas-fired plant Singapore (23-52%), Mexico (17.4-48.3%), Philippine (0.5-26.6%) Drivers for Power Generation

10 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre NRE 2.9 % Hydro 2.7 % Nuclear 1.7 % Gas 4.1 % Coal 2.5 % Gas Total energy supply for power generation to increase at AAGR of 2.5% (1999-2020) Source: APERC Primary Fuel for Power Generation

11 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Singapore Mexico Philippines Source: APERC Share of Gas in Power Generation Mix Singapore to post the highest increase in gas use followed closely by Mexico and the Philippines

12 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre C.T. U.S.A Mexico Chile China N.Z Australia Indonesia Increasing gas demand mainly for power generation Share of Gas for Power Generation Use

13 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Gas Market reform Future LNG Consumers Nuclear Policy in Power Generation Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region Future Climate Change Iniatives: Kyoto Protocol Global interaction of markets New cross-border pipeline infrastructure Key Factors Affecting the Gas Market

14 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Mature exporters with vertically integrated monopolies Major exporters to other APEC economies Ex: Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia Recent Gas Developers with vertically integrated monopolies Largely self-sufficient in gas supply Ex: PNG, Peru, Philippines, Viet Nam Gas Markets in the APEC Region

15 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Competition at the edge Economies allow competing gas suppliers Ex: HK, Mexico, NZ Dominant Supplier with long distance pipelines Price regulation may make it difficult to invest Ex: China, Russia Gas Markets in the APEC Region

16 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Importer with Wholesale Competition and Single Buyer Heavy reliance on gas imports Ex: Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei, Thailand Evolving Retail Competition with Customer Choice End-use customer have choice of gas supplier Ex: Australia, Canada, Chile, United States Gas Markets in the APEC Region

17 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Future LNG Consumers in APEC Region Russia Canada Peru Australia Malaysia Viet Nam Papua New Guinea Brunei Darussalam Hong Kong, China Japan Korea Chinese Taipei USA Existing LNG Customer Mexico Philippines Chile New Zealand China Indonesia Singapore Thailand Potential LNG Customer Source: Strategies Consulting Ltd

18 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre New & Facility Capacity Expansion Australia: Greater Sunrise & Gorgon LNG project Brunei Darussalam: LNG 6 th train expansion project Indonesia: third Tangguh LNG Project Malaysia: Tiga Project Russia: Sakhalin-1,2 Projects Potential Cross-border Pipeline Infrastructure USA-Canada: Arctic-Canada-US Project Japan-Russia: Sakhalin-1 Project South Korea-Russia: Kovykta Project China-Russia: Sakhalin or Irkutsk Project Malaysia-Thailand: Pipeline linked to Gas-fired plant Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region

19 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre New Potential Gas Supplier Peru: a proposal to export gas from Camisea Field New LNG Receiving Terminal Plan USA/Mexico: New LNG terminal in U.S. Atlantic, Pacific Coast and Gulf of Mexico Chile: New LNG terminal project Chinese Taipei: Second Taichung harbor LNG terminal China: Guangdong, Fujian LNG terminal Korea: Posco, Gwangyang LNG terminal New Zealand: developing LNG terminal Non-Nuclear Homeland Policy Chinese Taipei Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region

20 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Growing Gas Demand Increasing demand mainly driven by Power Generation Environmental Issue: Climate change/Kyoto Protocol Emerging Gas Market: China, India, north America CNG (compressed natural gas ) vehicles Increasing Competitiveness on Gas market Deregulation/regulatory reform in Gas and Power Market Flexible in trade Security of Gas Supply Integrated activity and cooperation in the region Cross-border pipeline infrastructure Mid to long term contract with flexibility Summary

21 APEC LNG Workshop 2005, Taipei, Chinese Taipei, 21-23 March 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre THANK YOU


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