Presentation on theme: "Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)"— Presentation transcript:
1 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) 11APEC EGCFE Workshop 2005Taipei, Chinese Taipei21 – 23 March 2005Thank you for the introduction….Good afternoonShiro KONISHIGeneral ManagerAsia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
2 Outline of Presentation Natural gas supply/demand outlookGas market reform in the APEC regionKey factors affecting the gas marketNotable development in APECSummaryfor the next 30 minutes, I will talk about the growing demand for natural gas in the APEC region, sources of supply, a glimpse of the gas market structure, the key factors which affect these markets (particularly the future gas demand) and the notable energy developments in the APEC region which somehow have some influence over future gas demand.
3 APEC Regional Grouping RussiaJapanKoreaChinese TaipeiPhilippinesUSAMexicoCanadaChilePeruNew ZealandAustraliaChinaIndonesiaMalaysiaSingaporeThailandViet NamPapua New GuineaBrunei DarussalamHong Kong, ChinaNorth AmericaOceaniaLatin AmericaNortheast AsiaSoutheast AsiaAs you are all probably aware (and for purposes of this presentation), the APEC region is divided into 5 regions, including Russia and China.Therefore we have, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, North America, Latin America, Russia and China.Over the last 10 years, economies in APEC have been faced with …..
4 Gas Trade Flows in APEC Region LNG Gas ConsumerRussiaCanadaLNG Gas ConsumerJapanChinaUSAKoreaHong Kong, ChinaChinese TaipeiViet NamMexicoThailandPhilippinesSingaporeBrunei DarussalamMalaysiaSoutheast AsiaIndonesiaPapua New GuineaPeruAmong the economies in the region, natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy of choice. Reserves is almost as abundant as oil butIs widely dispersed.Gas is distributed either through pipeline or as LNG by VLCs.Pipeline GasConsumerAustraliaChileNew Zealand
5 Natural Gas Demand in APEC Region Gas Demand to increase at AAGR of 2.6% ( )Russia %China %Oceania %SE Asia %NE Asia %LatinAmerica %NorthAmerica %Natural gas demand is project to grow at 2.6% per annum, from 1135Mtoe in 1999 to 1951 Mtoe in 2020.
6 Natural Gas Demand in APEC Region China to command the highest AAGR at 8.3% ( )ChinaL AmericaNE AsiaSE Asia18.104.22.168.32.61.8On a regional basis, China is expected to show the highest growth in gas demand at 8.3% between 2000~2020.Latin America with 6.3%, Southeast Asia with 3.9%, Northeast Asia with 3.3%.Oceania with 2.6%, North America with 1.8%, Russia 2%-not including in this slideSource: APERC
7 Contribution to Incremental Gas Demand (1999-2020) Emerging demand from China and North AmericaIncreasing demand mainly driven by Power SectorThis slide show that Regional & Sector Contribution to Total Rise in Gas Demand betweenRussia and North America are expected to account for 19% 34% of the total rise in gas demand.Asia’s contribution ( China 14%, N.Asia 10%,S.Asia 9%) will be(33%) one-third of the APEC total.an 67% of the increase in gas demand will be from transformation for power generation use.19% for industrial use and 8% for residential, 5% for commercial use.Source: APERC
8 Primary Energy Supply in APEC Region TPES to increase at AAGR of 2.1% betweenNRE %Nuclear 1.7 %Hydro %Gas %Oil %Coal %1951GasOil1135TPES is expected to grow from 5659 Mtoe in 1999 to 8777Mtoe in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 2.1%.Natural Gas is projected to grow at 2.6% per annum, from 1135 in 1999 to 1951 Mtoe inn With It’s share in TPES increasing from20 to 22%.the key factors in it’s expansion are rising capita income combine with ease of use, technologies development and environmental concern.CoalSource: APERC
9 Drivers for Power Generation TechnologyCCGT(Combined-Cycle gas turbine): thermal efficiency of over 50%Environmental Issue:Kyoto Protocol / Climate ChangePower GenerationA fastest growth rate of 4.1% than coalIncreasing share of gas used for powerN.Z.( %),China(18.4%-46.8%),C.T.(51-71%)Increasing share of electricity from Gas-fired plant Singapore(23-52%), Mexico( %),Philippine( %)
10 Primary Fuel for Power Generation Total energy supply for power generationto increase at AAGR of 2.5% ( )NRE %Hydro %Nuclear 1.7 %Gas %Coal %GasThis chart show the total energy fuel for power generation in APEC regionTotal energy requirements will grow from 2092 Mtoe in 1999 to 3524 Mtoe in 2020, at a average annual rate of 2.5%.Gas have the fastest growth rate of 4.1%.Source: APERC
11 Share of Gas in Power Generation Mix Singapore to post the highest increase in gas usefollowed closely by Mexico and the PhilippinesSingaporeMexicoPhilippinesthis chart shows the share of electricity generated from gas-fired plant in APEC economiesthe share of gas in power is projected toincrease by 20% in Singapore, Mexico and Philippinesby 8% in Chile, USA, Australia, Chinese Taipei and Chinadecrease in Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and Russia.Source: APERC
12 Share of Gas for Power Generation Use Increasing gas demand mainly for power generationC.T.N.ZMexicoChileChinaAustraliaU.S.AIndonesiathis chart shows the share of natural gas for power usethe share of electricity in gas demand is projected toincrease by 10% or more in Chinese Taipei, Mexico, New Zealand,USA,Chile,Australia,Indonesia,ChinaDecrease by 10% or more in Philippine.Singapore and Peru
13 Key Factors Affecting the Gas Market Gas Market reformFuture LNG ConsumersNuclear Policy in Power GenerationNotable Energy Developments in APEC RegionFuture Climate Change Iniatives: Kyoto ProtocolGlobal interaction of marketsNew cross-border pipeline infrastructureAlthough there are various factors that might have significant impact on the supply and demand for gas, I will just focus on 4 key factors:gas market reformfuture LNG consumersnuclear policy in power generationand notable developments in the APEC region’s energy sector favoring gas use.
14 Gas Markets in the APEC Region Mature exporters with vertically integratedmonopoliesMajor exporters to other APEC economiesEx: Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, MalaysiaRecent Gas Developers with vertically integratedLargely self-sufficient in gas supplyEx: PNG, Peru, Philippines, Viet NamIf we are to group or categorize the gas market in the APEC region,6 groups are easily discernable:Mature exporters with vertically integrated monopolies: this group incluldes major gas exporters to other APEC economies (I.e. Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.These economies are in fact at the heart of the Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline Network or the ASEAN Gas Network.There is also the recent gas developers (I.e. with new discoveries) with vertically integrated monopolies: this group is largely self sufficient in gas supply. Economies included are PNG, Peru, Philippines and Viet Nam.Since the development of the gas supply depended largely on demand, most or all of the gas produced are consumed locally.3.
15 Gas Markets in the APEC Region Competition at the edgeEconomies allow competing gas suppliersEx: HK, Mexico, NZDominant Supplier with long distance pipelinesPrice regulation may make it difficult to investEx: China, RussiaMature gas exporters with some competition at the edges include economies which allow competition among gas suppliers (e.g. Hong Kong China, Mexico, New Zealand and Russia).Fourth are the dominant suppliers (however with some transport pricing issues). These suppliers have very stringent pricing regulation that limits investments. The economies in this category are Russia and China.
16 Gas Markets in the APEC Region Importer with Wholesale Competition andSingle BuyerHeavy reliance on gas importsEx: Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei, ThailandEvolving Retail Competition with Customer ChoiceEnd-use customer have choice of gas supplierEx: Australia, Canada, Chile, United StatesThe group that is heavy reliant on gas imports with some wholesale competition include economies like Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei, and Thailand.And finally, the group with a growing and evolving gas retail competition; allows its end-use gas customer to choose their gas suppliers. Economies included in this group are Australia, Canada, Chile and the United States.By carefully understanding the behaviour of economies in these markets, one could accurately project gas behaviour in the future.
17 Future LNG Consumers in APEC Region JapanKoreaChinese TaipeiUSAExisting LNG CustomerMexicoPhilippinesChileNew ZealandChinaIndonesiaSingaporeThailandPotential LNG CustomerRussiaCanadaHong Kong, ChinaViet NamBrunei DarussalamMalaysiaPapua New GuineaPeruAfter careful study of the gas market behaviour, it is therefore evident to plot the following future gas consumers…..AustraliaSource: Strategies Consulting Ltd
18 Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region New & Facility Capacity ExpansionAustralia: Greater Sunrise & Gorgon LNG projectBrunei Darussalam: LNG 6th train expansion projectIndonesia: third Tangguh LNG ProjectMalaysia: Tiga ProjectRussia: Sakhalin-1,2 ProjectsPotential Cross-border Pipeline InfrastructureUSA-Canada: Arctic-Canada-US ProjectJapan-Russia: Sakhalin-1 ProjectSouth Korea-Russia: Kovykta ProjectChina-Russia: Sakhalin or Irkutsk ProjectMalaysia-Thailand: Pipeline linked to Gas-fired plantAs a final confirmation to natural gas’ increased demand, the following individual economy initiatives will shape up gas future.
19 Notable Energy Developments in APEC Region New Potential Gas SupplierPeru: a proposal to export gas from Camisea FieldNew LNG Receiving Terminal PlanUSA/Mexico: New LNG terminal in U.S. Atlantic, Pacific Coast and Gulf of MexicoChile: New LNG terminal projectChinese Taipei: Second Taichung harbor LNG terminalChina: Guangdong, Fujian LNG terminalKorea: Posco, Gwangyang LNG terminalNew Zealand: developing LNG terminalNon-Nuclear Homeland PolicyChinese Taipei
20 Summary Growing Gas Demand Increasing Competitiveness on Gas market Increasing demand mainly driven by Power GenerationEnvironmental Issue: Climate change/Kyoto ProtocolEmerging Gas Market: China, India, north AmericaCNG (compressed natural gas ) vehiclesIncreasing Competitiveness on Gas marketDeregulation/regulatory reform in Gas and Power MarketFlexible in tradeSecurity of Gas SupplyIntegrated activity and cooperation in the regionCross-border pipeline infrastructureMid to long term contract with flexibilityIn summary,Gas demand is at present and in the future be driven by the demand for power generationEnvironmental initiatives (I.e. Kyoto Protocol)Changing regulatory environment both for development and future gas investmentsTrade innovationsConcerns on supply securitychanging contractual termsWill all drive the demand for gas …..