Presentation on theme: "Interest Rate Monitor May 12, 2013. 2 Brief Overview Inflation rises to 7.0% in the first four months of the year Inflation rises to 7.0% in the first."— Presentation transcript:
Interest Rate Monitor May 12, 2013
2 Brief Overview Inflation rises to 7.0% in the first four months of the year Inflation rises to 7.0% in the first four months of the year International MENA Region Local Economy Interest Rate Forecasts Interest Rate Forecasts Amman Stock Exchange Amman Stock Exchange Local Debt Monitor Local Debt Monitor Prime Lending Rates Prime Lending Rates Markets overview New and analysis US: Treasury yields climb most since March; and Fed outline exit strategy Eurozone: Bonds suffer sell-off, and data this week is expected to show the region remain in recession Japan: Yen experiences new weakness, and G-7 signals acceptance of the slide Major Indices: Stocks end week at fresh records Commodities and Currencies: Gold drops and dollar hits four year high against yen Central Bank Meeting Calendar Interest Rate Forecast The Week Ahead Egypt Cabinet reshuffle brings new fiscal targets GCC News Highlights GCC interbank rates Comparative MENA Markets UK: BoE keeps policy unchanged
4 US Treasury bond rates: Yields climb the most since March Treasury 10-year note yields rose the most in two months as signs the U.S. economy is improving stoked speculation that there is no need for the Federal Reserve to ramp up monetary stimulus. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was up a hefty 9 basis points at 1.90% – for a rise over the week of 16bp. But the main focus in the markets was the dollar, as it touched a one-month high against a basket of currencies, following encouraging weekly US jobless claims data, which appeared to signal improving labor market conditions.
5 Fed outlines its exit strategy Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down its unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond- buying program meant to spur the economy—an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations. Officials say they plan to reduce the amount of bonds they buy in careful and potentially halting steps, varying their purchases as their confidence about the job market and inflation evolves. The timing on when to start is still being debated. Officials are focusing on clarifying the strategy so markets don't overreact about their next moves. Stocks and bond markets have taken off since the Fed announced in September that it would ramp up the bond- buying program. An abrupt or surprising end to it could send stocks and bonds in the other direction, but a delayed end could allow markets to overheat. And some officials feel they've ended other programs too soon and don't want to repeat the mistake.
6 But timing remains on debate,,, The Fed's strategy on how to unwind the program has emerged as a source of some uncertainty in markets in the wake of its policy meeting earlier this month. The Fed said in its post-meeting statement that it was "prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases" as the economic outlook evolved. The suggestion that the Fed might boost its bond buying was a change in the policy statement that seemed to some an acknowledgment that more aid for the economy might be needed. Employment data in April were weak and inflation has fallen well below the Fed's 2% inflation objective, both points that allow leeway for more stimulus. But many officials believe the recovery is on track and aren't yet concerned about the inflation slowdown. Instead, the most recent statement seems more aimed at signaling the Fed's broader flexibility in managing the programs. Yet while officials appear increasingly settled on a strategy for how to dial back the program, they haven't decided when to start. Some officials can envision taking a first step this summer, if strong data show the economy is weathering the tax increases and federal spending cuts that appear to be weighing on growth. April +165,000
7 European bonds suffer sell-off Peripheral yields fell last week following the ECB’s rate cut at the time. However, with the Yen weakness, there was a sell- off in bonds, though peripheral funding costs remain low. German sovereign debt fell out of favor. The German Bund yield was 11bp higher at 1.38%, a weekly increase of 14bp. Meanwhile, data released this week is expected to show that the euro area remained in recession, contracting by around 0.2% q/q. The contraction should reflect low growth in Germany and a continued contraction in France and Italy. Preliminary GDP for Spain in Q1 has already been released and it showed a slowdown of 0.5% q/q.
8 Spanish funding costs fall Spain's average borrowing costs fell Thursday after the country took advantage of positive market sentiment for financially stretched issuers to sell more government bonds than planned at an auction. The Spanish Treasury sold €4.57bn in three government bonds, maturing in 2016, 2018 and 2026, topping its €3.5bn to €4.5bn target range. Demand was solid for all the three lines, although the bid-to- cover ratios, which show how demand compares to the amount sold, came in at lower levels for all bonds than other recent auctions. After Thursday's auction, Spain has completed almost 48% of its full-year bond issuance target of €121.3bn. The success of the Spanish bond auction comes despite the country's economic woes. While Spain has made an earnest effort to reign in public spending, its economy continues to shrink and unemployment remains high. But peripheral debt, including Spanish bonds, have benefited from the glut of liquidity, the hunt for yield and from the European Central Bank's record-low policy rates, analysts said.
9 Germany likely to skirt recession in the first three months of the year German imports and exports rose in March slightly after falling the previous month in a further sign that Europe's largest economy is slowly pulling away from a contraction at the end of 2012 despite weakness in its eurozone neighbors. Data from the Federal Statistics Office on Friday showed exports rose by 0.5% versus February, in line with expectations, while imports increased by 0.8%. Exports have traditionally been the backbone of the German economy but foreign trade is expected to be a drag on growth this year due to weakness in the eurozone. Economists warned the outlook for exports was not rosy and said Germany would have to rely more on consumer spending, buoyed by a robust labor market and wage rises, to support growth this year. The German economy grew strongly during the early years of the eurozone crisis but it lost momentum last year, with weakness in foreign trade and a lack of investments driving it to a 0.6% contraction in the fourth quarter. Most economists expect it to skirt a recession by growing moderately in the first three months of this year and the trade data supports that theory, especially as it comes on the heels of data showing industrial orders and output rose in March.
10 UK: BoE keeps policy unchanged for now The Bank of England held off from injecting more stimulus into the U.K.'s fragile economy on Thursday, but incoming governor Mark Carney is expected to take action to shore up a fledgling recovery within months. The central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and left the size of its bond-buying stimulus program at £375bn. The decision was expected and both sterling and U.K. government bonds were broadly stable following the announcement. The Monetary Policy Committee's deliberations took place against a backdrop of promising signals on the U.K. economy. Gross domestic product expanded 0.3% between January and March, erasing losses at the end of 2012, and surveys of activity in April in construction, manufacturing and services suggest the economy kept growing at the start of the second quarter. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a nonpartisan think tank, said Thursday it estimates that GDP grew 0.8% between February and April, though cautioned that its estimate was flattered by weakness in the previous three months and said underlying economic growth remains subdued.
11 BoE keeps policy unchanged for now Britons are continuing to feel the pinch from high inflation and meager wage increases, denting hopes for a consumer-led recovery. Data from the British Retail Consortium, published on Wednesday, showed retail sales at stores open more than a year faltered badly in April, dropping 2.2%. Meanwhile, recession in the eurozone is sapping demand for British exports, and businesses remain reluctant to invest. The European Commission lowered its growth forecast for the U.K. in 2013 to a feeble 0.6%, from a previous forecast of 0.9%. The BOE will publish its latest forecasts for economic growth and inflation on May 15. Gov. Mervyn King will give his final news conference on monetary policy as governor the same day. Mr. King and two other colleagues on the rate-setting panel have spent the past few months pushing for more bond purchases but have failed to win over a majority of their colleagues on the nine-person panel, many of whom are fretting about inflation. Annual inflation was 2.8% in March and is expected to stay above the BoE's 2% target for the next couple of years. A majority of officials also want to see if alternatives to bond-buying, such as the A funding-for-lending scheme, can do a better job of spurring growth..
12 Yen's New Weakness The Japanese yen tumbled to trade at 100 to the dollar for the first time in four years. Rise of Abenomics (monetary easing; fiscal stimulus; and structural reform) has compelled investors to bet big against the yen Moreover, stronger-than-forecast employment gains reported last week and fewer-than-projected jobless claims helped the dollar rally versus the yen after passing the 100 level on May 9. During four years of global economic crises, the Japanese yen became ever-stronger against the U.S. dollar, as a safe haven for global investors. Late last year, one dollar bought less than ¥80. With new Japanese economic policies, the dollar is now trading above ¥100 for the first time since April Japanese government bonds suffered a sharp sell-off, with the 10-year yield recording its biggest one-day rise since September 2008.
13 G-7 Signals acceptance of the yen’s slide Group of Seven finance chiefs signaled tolerance of the yen’s slide to its weakest since 2008, so long as it doesn’t get out of hand. G-7 finance ministers and central bankers reaffirmed their February commitment to “not target exchange rates” at a meeting Saturday. While indicating acceptance of the yen’s decline through 100 per dollar, policy makers said Japan’s recovery program was a key focus of their talks and that they will monitor the currency’s performance. The yen has fallen 15 percent against the dollar this year and 13 percent versus the euro as the Bank of Japan stepped up monetary stimulus. While ministers discussed recent stimulus efforts by central banks, there is close attention that there are no unintended consequences on other countries both via capital flows or exchange rate movements. Also reports show that finance ministers are increasingly concerned about relative high liquidity. Moreover, Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers said they are moving toward revamping banking rules and ensuring that any lender on the brink of failure can be shut down without threatening financial stability.
14 Stocks end Friday at fresh records
15 Strengthening dollar hits four-year high against yen Gold suffers further losses in response to dollar strength
16 Major Interest Rate Forecasts
17 The Week Ahead,,,
18 Central Bank Meetings Calendar Expected Rate Decision Current Rate MonthCentral Bank 0.25% June 19US Federal Reserve (FOMC) 0.50% June 6European Central Bank (ECB) 0.50% June 6Bank of England (BoE) 0.10% June 10Bank of Japan (BOJ) 0.00% June 20Swiss National Bank (SNB) 1.00% May 29Bank of Canada (BOC) 2.75% June 4Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 2.50% June 12Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks :
20 Egypt: Cabinet shuffle brings new fiscal targets Nine new Egyptian ministers joined President Mohammed Morsi's Cabinet last week, in a reshuffle that officials said was aimed at addressing the country's financial woes and securing a much-needed international loan. The new cabinet is expected to set new fiscal deficit targets and will hopefully secure Egypt the IMF loan. Egypt’s budget deficit in the nine months to March rose to billion EGP ($25.3 billion), or 10.1% of gross domestic product. The budget deficit is expected to reach around 200 billion Egyptian pounds ($28.75 billion) at the end of the fiscal year, or 11.5% of GDP. New Investment Minister Yehya Hamed has put a target of 9.5% of GDP for the upcoming fiscal year 2013/14. In addition, Egypt's new Planning Minister Amr Darrag said that the government was targeting economic growth of 4.1% in the 2013/14 fiscal year, revised from 3.8%. The IMF said on Thursday it was not currently planning a new visit to Egypt to discuss the program as it was awaiting new economic data and reform plans from the government, after it recently visited the country. Planning Minister Amr Darrag said "I am not sure about the time of return but what I am sure about is that we are going to close a deal because there is a lot of agreement." Source: Bloomberg
21 Egypt News Highlights Egypt’s urban Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 8.1% in the 12 months to April. Egypt's pound has officially lost more than 15% of its value against the US dollar since the beginning of 2013, driving these high inflation rates. Egypt’s net international reserves rose in April to $14.4 billion, in the first increase since October. Reserves grew from $13.4 billion in March. The increase reflects the $2 billion deposit placed by the Libyan government according to the Libyan Central Bank Governor. Egypt’s central bank kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 9.75%. The overnight lending rate was also maintained at 10.75%. The central bank was expected to raise the deposit rate by 25bps to reach 10%, according to the median of six estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The central bank last raised the deposit rate in March, which was the first increase since November In other news, Ratings agency S&P’s downgraded Egypt's long- and short-term credit rating over the government's failure to meet the country's fiscal needs. Egypt's long-term rating was lowered to 'CCC+' from 'B-', while its short-term rating dropped to 'C' from 'B', the agency said in a statement. Source: Bloomberg
22 GCC Economic News Highlights Qatar’s international reserves surge to $38bn: Qatar’s international reserves have reached $38bn in March on the back of a strong growth in foreign exchange receipts from rising exports. Qatar Central Bank’s international reserves have been steadily increasing since 2000 as foreign exchange receipts from exports grew. The pullback in reserves in 2011 was largely due to capital outflows for the purchase of foreign assets. Four Asian countries, Japan, South Korea, India and China, remained the top export destinations for Qatar and accounted for more than 75% of the country’s exports. S&P affirms Qatar ratings; outlook remains stable: Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s has affirmed its long- and short-term foreign and local currency ratings on Qatar at ‘AA/A-1+’ with a stable outlook. The ratings on Qatar reflect its view of high economic wealth and strong fiscal and external balance sheets, it said. Finding that structural weaknesses and challenges remain, S&P said the country’s public institutions are in the early stages of development compared with most ‘AA’ rated sovereigns. Given the fixed exchange rate with the dollar, the agency views the central bank’s monetary policy flexibility as “limited.” Qatar bank sector sees profits drop, but insurers stand tall: The banking and financial services segment, which has 12 constituents, saw its overall net profitability decline to 3.81% in the first quarter of 2013 against 12.88% in the previous year quarter amid reports of inertia on credit pickup as well as low non-interest earnings. Qatar’s financial landscape presented a mixed picture in the first quarter of this year with the banking sector witnessing net profitability decline, while the insurance sector exhibited a splendid performance.
23 GCC Economic News Highlights Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports fell in March: Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports fell 5.9% to 17 billion Saudi riyals ($4.6 billion) in March, pushed down by a drop in petrochemicals exports, the government said Saturday. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has been building up its petrochemicals industry using its natural gas reserves as feedstock. In March, petrochemicals exports fell 8.3% to SAR5.5 billion. Saudi Arabia defies global slump to post 7% economic growth: Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf has said the Kingdom achieved a growth rate of 7% due to its sound economic policy and planning carried out with the private sector participation. Fitch Ratings Agency recently raised the sovereign rating of the Kingdom to a higher degree (-AA) with a positive outlook, further solidifying Saudi’s sound economic policy. This year, higher oil prices will ally with record spending to boost Saudi Arabia's economy by more than $24 billion in current prices to maintain its position as having the largest economy in the Middle East. The increase will widen the Gulf Kingdom's GDP per capita to its highest ever level in 2013 despite a projected rise of around 900,000 in its population, according to one study.
24 Comparative MENA Markets For the period 05/05 – 10/05
26 Local interest rates forecasts and major developments Excess liquidity fell slightly last week, which could be due to a rise in government borrowing. Moreover, it could be due to the end of the fiscal year and therefore industries are paying dividends and taxes to offshore countries. Government Bonds (up to 12 th May):
27 Inflation up 7.0% during first third of 2013 According to figures released by the Department of Statistics, the inflation rate reached 7.0% during the first third of 2013 compared to the same period last year. Among the main commodities groups which contributed to this increase were: Transportation (18.60%) Fuel and Electricity (25.20%) Meat and Dairy (8.00%) Fruits and Vegetables (18.50%) The report also showed that inflation rate for April 2013 has increased by 6.0% compared with April the previous year. Among the main commodities groups which contributed to this increase were: Transportation (15.50%) Fuel and Electricity (24.20%) Meat and Dairy (6.00%) Fruits and Vegetables (15.20%) “The central bank managed pressures on reserves well by raising interest rates and maintaining the attractiveness of dinar- denominated assets. Its focus on further building foreign exchange reserves and containing inflation remains warranted” ….. IMF Statement April 11 th 2013
28 Weighted average rates on deposits continues to rise The weighted average interest rate on deposits with licensed banks continued to rise, reaching 4.75% in March. Our studies show that the increase in the weighted average interest rates came as a result of an increase on outstanding deposit rates rather than newly attracted deposits given higher rates. All JOD deposits at banks grew by 900 million JD since the beginning of the year to reach 25.9 billion JD, or a 3.61% increase. On the other hand, USD deposits at licensed banks decreased by 52.2 million JOD to reach 7.21 billion JD, or a decrease of 0.72%. The increase in JOD deposits and decrease in USD deposits reflects a slowdown in the dollarization wave last year. JOD (in MIO)USD (in MIO) Dec-12 11,0272,776 Jan-13 11,2262,757 Feb-1311,5042,700 Mar-1311,6482,658 Time Deposits at Licensed Banks
29 Amman Stock Exchange For the period 05/05 – 09/05 ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at (2031.2) points, compared to (2005.3) points for the last week, posting an increase of 1.29%. The total trading volume during the week reached JD(39.9) million compared to JD(32.7) million during the last week. Trading a total of (41.6) million shares through (22,014) transactions The shares of (173) companies were traded, the shares prices of (83) companies rose, and the shares prices of (63) declined. Top 5 losers for the last week Stock % chg Arab Real Estate Development (20.00%) Ihdathiat Co-ordinates (19.72%) The Investors And Eastern Arab For Industrial And Real Estate Investments (18.88%) Arab Center For Pharm.& Chemicals (17.39%) East Specialized Cables Company/mesc_jordan Plc (16.67%) Top 5 gainers for the last week Stock % chg United Arab Investors 27.25% Northern Cement Co % Jordan Steel 21.11% Taameer Jordan Holdings Public Shareholding Company 20.00% United Cable Industries 10.53%
30 Local Debt Monitor Latest T-Bills As May 12, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ JD(2,573) million. Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date3 months T-Bills 2.898%5014/03/201214/12/201129/ %5012/03/201212/12/201128/2011 Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date6 months T-Bills 3.788%5014/08/201214/02/201202/ %5023/01/ / %5008/06/201208/12/201127/2011 Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date9 months T-Bills 4.285%7504/12/201204/03/201205/ %7529/11/201229/02/201204/ %7522/11/201222/02/201203/2012 Coupon (%)Size - MillionMaturity DateIssue Date1 year T-Bills 5.345%7515/04/201415/04/201304/ %7026/02/201426/02/201303/ %5014/02/201414/02/201302/ %7027/01/201427/01/201301/2013
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