2 Class Announcements Assignment #4 returned in class today Cost of Egg survey in-classAssignment #5 due February 10th (today); available on-lineAssignment #6 due February 20th; available on-lineResearch Paper Part #2 due February 13thMidterm is February 17th (in-class) – discussed at end of class
4 Research Paper Part #2Discussion of accounting treatment related to CICA e.g. criteria for asset/liability, user need, qualitative characteristic such as relevance, etc. – choose one aspect of CICA 1000.Due: February 13th (in-class)Worth: 2.5%Length: Cover page, One page submission (double spaced), Reference page, with Part#1 and Marking Key #1 attached to the back.
5 Class ObjectivesIssues with the Information Perspective of Decision UsefulnessSecurities Markets Inefficiency: AnomaliesThe Measurement Perspective recognizes an increased obligation to assist investors to predict firm performance and value
6 Information Perspective An approach to financial reporting:that recognizes individual responsibility for predicting future firm performancethat concentrates on providing useful information for this purpose.that assumes securities market efficiency (i.e. the market will react to useful information from any sources including the financial statements).
7 Information Perspective: Issues “To the extent that markets are not efficient and investors are not rational, reliance on these theories to justify historical cast based financial statements enhanced by much supplementary disclosure with underlies the information approach to decision usefulness, is threatened”. (p. 185).1Markets may not be as effective as once believedMuch empirical research on usefulness of financial statement information relies on efficient securities markets2.Behavioral tendencies : limited attention, overconfidence , self-attribution biasesInvestors are not as adept at processing information as rational decision theory assumes3.Net income accounts for 2% to 7% of abnormal return
8 Information Perspective: Issues “If these questions are valid the practice of relying on supplementary information in notes and elsewhere to augment historical cost based financial statements proper may not be completely effective in conveying useful information to investors.” (p. 186)Supplementary info to augment historic cost many not be effective“Furthermore if shares are mispriced improved financial reported may be helpful in reducing inefficiencies thereby improving the working of the securities markets” (p. 186)Reporting on risk: β is no longer the only relevant risk measure
9 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Anomalies 1) January Effect2) Weekend Effect3) Stock Split Effect4) Short Skirt Theory5) Super bowl Indicator
10 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Anomaly: January Effect Amid the turn-of-the-year market optimism, there is one class of securities that consistently outperforms the rest. Small-company stocks outperform the market and other asset classes during the first two to three weeks of January. This phenomenon is referred to as the January effect.
11 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Anomaly: Weekend Effect The weekend effect describes the tendency of stock prices to decrease on Mondays, meaning that closing prices on Monday are lower than closing prices on the previous Friday. For some unknown reason, returns on Mondays have been consistently lower than every other day of the week. In fact, Monday is the only weekday with a negative average rate of return.
12 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Anomaly: Stock Split Effect Stock splits increase the number of shares outstanding and decrease the value of each outstanding share, with a net effect of zero on the company's market capitalization. However, before and after a company announces a stock split, the stock price normally rises. The increase in price is known as the stock split effect. Many companies issue stock splits when their stock has risen to a price that may be too expensive for the average investor. As such, stock splits are often viewed by investors as a signal that the company's stock will continue to rise. Empirical evidence suggests that the signal is correct.
13 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Anomaly: Skirt Length Theory “The idea that skirt lengths are a predictor of the stock market direction. According to the theory, if skirts are short, it means the markets are going up. And if skirt are long, it means the markets are heading down.The idea behind this theory is that shorter skirts tend to appear in times when general consumer confidence and excitement is high, meaning the markets are bullish. In contrast, the theory says long skirts are worn more in times of fear and general gloom, indicating that things are bearish.Although some investors may secretly believe in such a theory, serious analysts and investors - of examining skirt length to make investment decisions - insist on focusing on market fundamentals and data.” - Investopedia
14 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Anomaly: Superbowl Indicator When a team from the old American Football League wins the game, the market will close lower for the year. When an old National Football League team wins, the market will end the year higher. Silly as it may seem, the SuperBowl indicator was correct more than 80% of the time over a 40-year period ending in 2008 . However, the indicator has one limitation: It contains no allowance for an expansion-team victory.Seehttp://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/s tock-market-indicators.asp
15 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Accounting Examples Evidence of market inefficiency that specifically involves accounting evidence suggests market may not respond to information exactly as market efficiency theory predicts.1)Post-announcement driftFollowing news price changes up (good news) or down (bad news) for 60 day periodInvestors appear to underestimate the implications of current earnings
16 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Accounting Examples (cont’d) 2)Financial statement ratiosMarket does not respond to some balance sheet informationStrategy based on financial statement ratios results in abnormal returns3) Net income = OCF ± net accrualsMarket should react more strongly to $1 of good news from cash than from accruals; accruals are more subject to errors of estimation and possible managers bias than cash flowsCash flow is more persistent; operating cash flow results from continuing operationsResearch suggests reaction is not fine tuned to account for accruals vs. cash flows4) Stock Market BubblesWherein share prices rise far above fundamental value (e.g., technology bubble)Attribute to combination of self attribution, momentum buying, herd behaviour, etc.
17 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Behavioral Investors are not as adept at processing information as rational decision theory assumesBehavioral characteristics can produce a wide variety of share price behaviors over time.Limited attention+ - 7 pieces of informationProspect theoryProspect theory is a behavioral based alternative to rational decision theoryFraming analysis problems in an isolated mannerSeparate evaluation of gains and losses - Loss aversionOverconfidenceOverestimate the precision of information they collect themselvesRare events overweighed and probable events underweightedRepresentativenessAssess to much weight to evidence consistent with the individual’s impressionsSelf Attribution BiasIndividuals feel that good outcomes are a result of their abilities (internal factors) and bad outcome are a result of external factors.
18 Securities Markets Inefficiency: Beta CAPM implies beta is sole risk measure to explain share returnHigher ß higher return, & vice versaResearch suggest beta had little ability to explain stock market returnsBook to market and firm size had explanatory power of stock market returnsBeta may shift (i.e., not constant)If beta is not only relevant risk measure, increase role of financial statementsWeak empirical results threaten CAPM and the efficient securities market theory on which it is based
19 Measurement Perspective: Definition “The measurement perspective to decision usefulness is an approach to financial reporting under which accountants undertake a responsibly to incorporate current values into the financial statements proper, providing that this can be with reasonable reliability, thereby recognizing an increased obligation to assist investors to predict firm performance and value.” (p. 184)Stand setters have been moving toward the greater use of the measurement approach for many years.
20 The Measurement Perspective: Implications The measurement perspective on decision usefulness:greater use of current values in the financial statements – increased relevanceincreased relevance must outweigh any reduction in reliabilityincreased fair value disclosure = increased usefulnessimplies a larger role in determining fair valuesuggests a balance sheet approach
21 Conclusions Risk – unsophisticated investor Transactions costs 1.Possible explanations for anomalies that are consistent with securities market efficiencyRisk – unsophisticated investorTransactions costs2.Efficiency a matter of degreeefficiency is measured as price reflecting available information not fundamental valueovertime prices will move toward fundamental valueconclude actual markets are “close enough” that efficient securities market model still most useful to guide accountants about investor decision needs3.Theory and evidence of behavioral finance has progressed to point where it supports a measurement perspective
22 Class Objectives - Revisited Issues with the Information Perspective of Decision UsefulnessSecurities Markets Inefficiency: AnomaliesThe Measurement Perspective recognizes an increased obligation to assist investors to predict firm performance and value
23 Midterm Worth – 25% When –Monday (17th) Coverage – Format: Conceptual Framework (CICA 1000); Accrual Accounting;Efficient Markets (Chapter 4);Information Perspective (Chapter 5);Measurement Perspective (Chapter 6);Positive Accounting Theory (Chapter 8);Format:short answer with multiple parts;choice of 3 out of 4;no quantitative problems
24 Midterm: Typical Question In measuring the response of the market (i.e., change in market price), how do accounting researchers determine if the market is responding to financial accounting information? (5 marks)Solution:Research can obtain past data on Rjt and RMt and use regression analysis to estimate the coefficient of the modelAbnormal return is the rate of return on firm j’s share for day after removing the influence of market wide factors.A positive abnormal share return constitute evident that investor are reacting favorably to unexpected good news in earning
25 Midterm: Typical Question How does the historical cost basis of reporting financial statement information affect the concept of net income? (5 marks)Solution:Under historical cost accounting, the income statement is the primary financial statement.Net income for a period represents the difference between revenue recognized during the period and the historical costs of earning that revenue.When revenue is received in advance, it is deferred to future periods when it will be matched with the costs of earning that revenue. Deferred revenue is not viewed as a liability, as it would be under a measurement perspective, but rather as revenue that is not yet earned.Asset values on the balance sheet are not intended to represent their value, but rather the costs of those assets that have will be matched with revenues in future periods.
26 Midterm: Typical Question What does a market response to financial accounting information indicate? (5marks)Solution:A market response to financial accounting information indicates that accounting information has information value; the accounting profession wants the market to react to accounting informationAccounting information is meant to have decision usefulness; that is the market uses that information to revise expectations and assumptions and corresponding adjusts expectations about share price.Market participants have multiple and competing sources for information about share price
27 Assignment #4 Average: 2.20/2.50 or 88% Hi: 2.50/2.50 (100%) Lo: 1.35/2.50 (54%)Comments:Support conclusion about Canadian market form of market efficiencyForm of Market efficiency– info included in price – not a reflection of inefficiency (e.g., weak form)Include assignment and course #Avoid casual or conversational languageDo not end sentence or phrase in a preposition