Presentation on theme: "Capital Market Presentation August 2011: Real Assets Hans-Jörg Naumer, Dennis Nacken, Stefan Scheurer Not for circulation to private investors."— Presentation transcript:
Capital Market Presentation August 2011: Real Assets Hans-Jörg Naumer, Dennis Nacken, Stefan Scheurer Not for circulation to private investors
2 Where Do I Invest My Money? Performance of different asset classes (in %) Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
3 Concern 1: Fear of Escalation of European Debt Crisis Risk premia of 10y European government bonds vs. German government bonds (-1 year) Source: European Commission, Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
4 Concern 2: US Debt US debt in % of GDP since 1792 Civil War 27% Great depression & World War II 122% Financial Crisis 70% Forecast 2015 ~100% Source: Congressional Budget Office; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
5 Concern 2: US Economy US labor market recovering slowly; US housing market lagging behind Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
6 Concern 3: Growth – Sliding into a New Recession? Leading indicators suggest cooling down but remain largely on expansionary side. Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
7 Concern 4: Inflation – Especially for China Expansive monetary policy in industrial nations, restrictive monetary policy in growth countries. Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
8 P/E ratios 12 months forward Valuations Continue to Suggest Equity Investments Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
9 Earnings Season: Excessive Expectations 71% of S&P 500 Q2 2011 reports exceeded analysts‘ expectations. Source: Bloomberg; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
10 Sales growth & EBITDA margins (12m fwd) in the US, Europe and Emerging Markets. Earnings Season: Sales Growth but Margin Pressure on the Horizon Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
11 Market Participants Remain on the Sidelines Robust equity market despite reticent investors. Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
12 Investment Theme: Small Caps Small caps continue to drive performance vs. average premium paid in the US. Source: Datastream, Bloomberg; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis Ø premium Small Caps: 24,2% Ø premium Mid Caps: 27,3% Ø premium Large Caps: 7,6% Ø Small Caps Ø Mid Caps Ø Large Caps
13 Decisive Insights: In spite of the continued uncertainty, we believe that a slight overweight in equities is advisable. Despite weaker leading indicators, the underlying trend in the global economy seemingly continues to be positive, making it seem unlikely that the global economy will slip into a second recession. The EU rescue package is likely to provide a boost to the capital markets, although concerns about the US and its debt problems displaced the relief felt following the EU summit. The artificial growth created through debt and an increasing risk of inflation present unfavourable conditions for bond investors. In spite of the continued uncertainty, we believe that a slight overweight in equities is advisable. The reasons for this include the attractive valuation of equities versus bonds and the confidence resulting from the second quarter reporting season
15 Disclaimer This presentation has been issued and approved by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH, a subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors AG (part of the Allianz Group). Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is a limited liability company incorporated under the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany with its registered office at Mainzer Landstrasse 11-13, D-60329 Frankfurt/Main. Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is licensed in the Federal Republic of Germany as a provider of financial services (Finanzdienstleistungsinstitut); for the conduct of its business activities, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is subject to the supervision of the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). Allianz Global Investors GmbH has established branches in Switzerland (Zürich), Italy (Milan), United Kingdom (London), Spain (Madrid) and the Netherlands (Utrecht). Allianz Global Investors GmbH also has established representative offices in the Kingdom of Bahrain (Bahrain), Portugal (Lisbon) and Sweden (Stockholm). For these branches and representative offices additional local laws and regulation may be applicable. This document is meant to provide a broad overview for discussion and/or information purposes. Furthermore, this document was not prepared with the intention of providing legal or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed in this document, which are subject to change, are those of Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH and its affiliated companies at the time of publication. The duplication, publication, or transmission of the contents of this document to unauthorised persons, irrespective of the form, is not permitted. While some of the data provided herein is derived from various published and unpublished sources, and is assumed to be correct and reliable, it has not been independently verified. Therefore, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of all data/information and will not accept any liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. The investment opportunities described herein are not guaranteed by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH or affiliated companies within the Allianz Group. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy securities. Statements made to recipients of this document are subject to the provisions of any underlying offer or contract that may have been, or will be, made or concluded. As with all investment products, no guarantee can be given that past performance will be repeated in the future; consequently, there is no assurance that a portfolio will match the returns shown in this document. This documentation must be seen as confidential. This document is marketing material according to Art. 19 European Directive 2004/39/EC (MiFiD) and § 31 section 2 German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). Internet: www.allianzglobalinvestors.eu.
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