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Bivariate Presentation POL 242 2008 Student Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness.

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Presentation on theme: "Bivariate Presentation POL 242 2008 Student Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Bivariate Presentation POL Student Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness

3 Rationale Importance of Israeli/Palestinian conflict Work in other courses and earlier assignments Desire to understand effect of conflict on young people

4 Data Set Israel 2003 Data Set N = 475

5 Dependant Variable: Hawkishness “Hawkishness” measures right wing views on national security Created Index Creation of Palestinian State Negotiation even if Terror Persists Diplomacy vs. Force Belief the conflict will end Labour or Likud on security Alpha =.85

6 Independent Variable: Age Coded into 3 categories: Under 30 (29.3%) 30 to 54 (46.7%) 55 and Older (24%)

7 Hypothesis X = Age Y = Hawkishness X  Y As people get older they hold more hawkish views on national security Young soldiers Optimism Left/Right political support

8 Hawkishness by Age HawkishnessAge Under 3030 to 5455 to 60 Low26%38%30% Medium29%30%35.5% High45%32%35% N Tau B = Significance of Chi-square =.0777

9 Preliminary Conclusions Extremely weak negative relationship between Age and Hawkishness Not statistically significant Confirms Null Hypothesis Explanations for negative result Service in IDF Separate Education Garfinkle: Politics and Society in Modern Israel

10 New Independent Variable: Religion Coded into 4 categories: Secular (50.1%) Traditional (33.0%) Religious (12.1%) Haredi (4.8%)

11 New Hypothesis X = Religiosity Y = Hawkishness X  Y More religious Israelis will hold more Hawkish views on National Security Religious Connection to Land Lack of Flexibility

12 Hawkishness by Religiosity HawkishnessReligiosity SecularTraditionalReligiousHaredi Low42.2%30.1%8.9% Medium31.9%33.3%30.4%4.5% High25.9%36.6%60.7%95.5% N TauC =.28 Significance of Chi-Square = One-Way ANOVA: secular and traditional distinct, Religious and Haredi are not

13 Conclusions Confirms hypothesis - moderately strong relationship between Hawkishnes and Religiosity. Statistically Significant Haredi and Religious do not differ significantly, but Secular, Traditional and Religious do Extremely high hawkishness among Haredi Exemption from conscription (Israel Since 1980, Ben-Porat et al)

14 Future Questions Age and Hawkishness Specific Israeli conditions or military service? Religion and Hawkishness Specific to Israel or generalizable? Lebanon war vs. controlling “greater Israel”

15 Appendix: Syntax *code and test index* missing values A19 (4) recode A12 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into PalSt recode A14 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into Negot recode A19 (1=0)(2=1) into TlkFrce recode A20 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into ConfEnd recode A48 (1=1)(2=0)(3=.5) into LabLik recode A49 (1=1)(2=.83)(3=.66)(4=.5)(5=.33)(6=.16)(7=0) into Right RELIABILITY /VARIABLES=PalSt Negot TlkFrce ConfEnd LabLik Right /SCALE(all) ALL /SUMMARY=all compute rawindex = PalSt+Negot+TlkFrce+ConfEnd+LabLik+Right recode rawindex (0 thru 2.32 = 1)(2.33 thru 4.31 = 2)(4.32 thru 6 = 3) into hawk value labels hawk 1'low'2'moderate'3'high'. *Hawkishness vs. Age* crosstab tables=hawk by AGE /cells=column count /statistics=BTAU chisq oneway hawk by AGE(1,3) /ranges=scheffe /statistics = all *Hawkishness vs. Religiosity* crosstab tables=hawk by B91 /cells=column count /statistics=CTAU chisq oneway hawk by B91(1,4) /ranges=scheffe /statistics = all


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