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AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas www.pringturner.com Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors… Are you Prepared.

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Presentation on theme: "AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas www.pringturner.com Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors… Are you Prepared."— Presentation transcript:

1 AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors… Are you Prepared for Another “Lost Decade?” The Secular and Cyclical Outlook for Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities

2 Turner Capital Group

3 19-years/69% decline/ 6 recessions 19-years/67% decline/ 4 recessions 16-years/62% decline/ 4 recessions 10-years/43% decline/ 2 recessions

4 Turner Capital Group

5 Turner Capital Group

6 Price Moves in Excess of 25%

7 Key Points: Secular Trend for Stocks  Long Periods of Alternating Good and Bad Performance  Secular Trends Change at Extreme Valuation Levels  Currently Halfway through our 4 th Secular Bear Market  Be Aware of the Secular Bull Market for Commodities  Capitalize on Cyclical Stock Market Opportunities (Today)  Understanding Secular Environment is Key to Success

8 Financial markets are linked in a logical, rational, and sequential relationship to business activity. Financial markets have been tracking these business cycle sequences for over 150 years. Pring Turner Investment Approach

9 Turner Capital Group 9

10 Turner Capital Group 9

11

12 Key Points: Investing Around the Business Cycle  Markets are Linked in a Logical, Rational, Sequential Relationship  For over 150 Years, Markets have Tracked Business Cycle Sequences  During Secular Bear Markets Economy in Recession More Often  Pring Turner Organizes the Business Cycle into 6 stages  Just Entered Stage 4  Good for Stocks and Inflation Sensitive Securities  Bad for Bonds  Business Cycle Drives Profitable Asset Allocation Decisions

13 Turner Capital Group

14 (Inverted) Turner Capital Group

15 Turner Capital Group

16 Inflation Barometer is at 100%. Turner Capital Group 910

17 Key Points: Secular Trend Bonds/Commodities  Bonds Have Been in a Secular Bull Market for Almost 30 years  Bond Owners Beware: Secular Trend is at a Critical Juncture  Cyclically Bonds are Vulnerable to Interest Rate and Inflation risks  Small Rise in Interest Rates can Lead to Significant Losses in Bonds  Commodities in Secular Uptrend  Adds to Risk in Bonds  Opportunities in Inflation Sensitive Securities

18 Tactics to Protect and Grow Wealth ClassSecularCyclicalTactics StocksBearBull Use Business Cycle to Tactically Allocate Assets Inflation Themes are in Secular Bull Resourced Based, Foreign-Emerging Markets Quality with International Exposure Income Producers BondsBear?Bear Review and Reconsider Risks Lower Bond Allocation Reduce Bond Maturities Set up Short-term Bond Ladder Hedge Bonds with Inflation Sensitive Securities Inflation Sensitive Assets Bull Favor Natural Resource Companies “Chindia” Theme, Global Resource Demand Precious Metal Exposure Resource Based Countries Canadian Royalty Trusts March Turner Capital Group

19 Thanks for Listening… You are welcome to visit our website for research updates


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