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El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB) Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución.

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Presentation on theme: "El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB) Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución."— Presentation transcript:

1 El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB) Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España. 4ª Sesión Temática. “La cobertura de la demanda energética en España y la energía nuclear” Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio. Madrid,

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4 Basically since we have futures markets in oil, the expectations on long term price of oil were extraordinarily stable - at around 20$/bl. That meant that, at all times, and whatever the actual spot price was, oil prices were expected to come back (upwards, or downwards, depending on where it would be then) to that level. The view of the market on future prices of oil has changed in the past 2 years. The market expects oil prices to still be around $/bl 5 years from now, and not to drift down to 20$/bl or somewhere in between. 11-SIrak War

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6 Ratio of Natural Gas Prices to Oil Price IEA, WEO 2004

7 Downstream and upstream problems

8 The visible part of the iceberg

9 Cumulative oil and gas discoveries and new wildcat wells drilled, World Energy Outlook 2004

10 Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

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12 A growing gap

13 AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per year. By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is yet to be built World Energy Outlook 2004

14 Depletion: world gas-production capacity additions 7.3 trillion cubic metres of new gas-production capacity will be needed over the next three decades (around 260 bcm a year). Less than a third of this new capacity will go to meet rising demand. IEA, WEO 2004

15 : 3x10 12 US $ (E & P 70%) x 10 6 per year / 287,7 x 10 6 per day World Energy Outlook 2004

16 Cumulative investment in natural gas, Cumulative investment needs for gas- supply infrastructure to 2030 will amount to $2.7 trillion, or about $100 billion per year from now to More than half will be for exploration and development of gas fields. IEA, WEO 2004

17 Major net inter-regional oil trade flows (mb/d) WEO 2004

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19 “Choke points” WEO 2004

20 Geopolitical uncertainties

21 Higher prices = more discoveries? Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

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23 Reserves: IOC’s vs NOC’s

24 Chinese and Indian NOC’s

25 The submerged part of the iceberg “peak oil and gas”

26 Pessimists (“Hubbertites”) ASPO 2004

27 Optimists (“Cornucopias”)

28 Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery Trillions of Barrels USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 Source: USGS and Colin Campbell USGS (95%, 50% and 5%) vs the rest EIA 2004

29 SCIENCE, 18 NOVEMBER 2005, VOL 310

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