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Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee (Vic) Climate Change: the BAD news.

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Presentation on theme: "Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee (Vic) Climate Change: the BAD news."— Presentation transcript:

1 Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee (Vic) Climate Change: the BAD news

2 Since IPCC 2007: Sea level rise worse than we thought (IPCC ignored Greenland and Antarctica melt)

3 Since IPCC 2007: Sea level rise worse than we thought (IPCC ignored Greenland and Antarctica melt)

4

5 NASA Earth Observatory 18 Feb 2011 Record Melting in Greenland during 2010 “2010 was an exceptional year for Greenland’s ice cap. Melting started early and stretched later in the year than usual. Little snow fell to replenish the losses. By the end of the season, much of southern Greenland had set a new record, with melting that lasted 50 days longer than average.”

6 The ‘Arctic weather’ has been pushed south by climate change Problem is the deniers are in the cold bit and the melting ice in the warm bit!

7 Arctic sea ice melting at record rates

8 Figure 14: Observed Antarctic Warming Trend (°C/decade) from Steig, E. J. et al., Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, (2009) East Antarctica is also melting faster than we thought.

9 Marysville Vic Feb 2009

10 Rochester Vic Jan 2011

11 Queensland floods Jan 2011

12 Queensland Cyclone Yasi Jan 2011

13 Russian extreme heat and fires 2010 Pakistan extreme rain and floods 2010

14 2010 Hottest year on record

15 2000’s Hottest decade on record

16 But do we believe it? Polls are going the WRONG WAY! CC as 1, 2 or 3: Jan 2010 – 16% Oct 2010 – 11% Jan 2011 – 10%

17 Ian Plimer... that noted climate expert...

18 It has sold very well! 80,000+ copies

19 Plimer says “the climate has always changed” – we just have to get used to it. “If we humans, in a fit of ego, think we can change these normal planetary processes, then we need stronger medication.”

20 How can he, a scientist, say that? Surely he knows that we have increased the CO 2 (greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere by almost 40% and that CO 2 absorbs IR radiation and that there is a strong correlation between the CO 2 and the temperature...

21 How can he, a scientist, say that? 2010

22 And that other noted ‘climate expert’... “UN is using the global warming scare in order to impose world government”

23 Monckton’s temperature graph

24 25 Feb 2011 The Murdoch media gives a VERY different picture compared to The Age and the ABC

25 Bolt, McCrann “analysis”?! Bolt: “a useless new tax that will drive up your power bills” “Gillard is setting an example no one plans to follow and the climate will not notice” McCrann: “Julia Gillard has now turned her big lie into a big new tax.” Don’t like your power bills? “Get used to it, they are headed much higher. And then higher again and again.” “It sets out to hurt every Australian – to absolutely no point.” “not the slightest difference to the climate” “Talk about hypocrisy, stupidity and deceit rolled into one.”

26 Compare Ballieu’s “backdown” on teachers Baillieu’s broken promise to teachers is apparently “tough talk” or a “back away”

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28 So is it any wonder: H-S 25 Feb

29 Herald – Sun online 18 March (Garnaut)

30 AB: One, how much will this cost? Two, how well will it work? JD: No, I can't tell you but I do know that the modelling shows that it's cheaper to start earlier rather than later. JD: Well, what we do know is that to have an even chance of keeping temperature increases globally to 2 degrees... you've got to reduce emissions globally by 50 per cent by [AB Totally ignores this comment] 12 th March 2011

31 More Bolt madness (same article) AB: In fact, if Gillard shut down our economy completely and shot every burping cow, the temperature by 2100 would fall just 0.01 degrees. All pain, zero gain. AB: Hear it from John R. Christy: Professor of atmospheric science University of Alabama: JC: “Over the past 32 years, he said, the warming trend seemed to be a third of what global warming models predicted” JC: “Recent natural disasters in Australia were just part of the natural cycles, and plans to "stop" warming with, say, an emissions trading scheme were futile.” JC: "We calculate that the impact of legislative actions being considered on the global temperature is essentially imperceptible." AB: Huge cost. No effect. So I urge you: ask the politicians flogging this "carbon tax" the most basic questions you'd ask any salesman: How much? And what will it do? And if their answers are as clueless as Duggan's, tell these shysters you're not buying.

32 More Bolt madness AB: Hear it from John R. Christy: Professor of atmospheric science University of Alabama: JC: “Over the past 32 years the warming trend seemed to be a third of what global warming models predicted” Not quite what the data says! 2010 temp

33 More Bolt madness AB: Hear it from John R. Christy: Professor of atmospheric science University of Alabama: KB: John Christy supports the Cornwall Alliance who say: “We believe Earth and its ecosystems—created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence —are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth’s climate system is no exception. Recent global warming is one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic history.”

34 “ Global temperatures last month [Jan 2011] were at the long term average, or just below (thanks to the La Nina) ” Herald-Sun 5 Feb 2011

35 But what he didn’t mention: NOT ‘long term average’ only (~ +0.4 o C long term) Exceptional La Niña should give exceptional low temp! This was a dramatic dip from record highs. This dip well above previous dips. Clear upward long term trend.

36 AND: Exceptional La Niña due to exceptionally warm Australian waters December 2010

37 AND:

38 “Never mind, here comes Flannery with his latest scares and you-beaut fix.” His job as Climate Commission chief …is to "provide an authoritative, independent source of information on climate change …” “That, translated, means selling us whatever scheme the Government cooks up to tax carbon dioxide, doing to the economy what the floods have done to Flannery's hot-rocks investment. See why I say Flannery is the right man for this job? Who better to teach us how little we really know about global warming and how much it may cost to panic?”

39 Unfortunately the OZ is not much better:

40 Question: How can we counter this propaganda?

41 Enough of the bad news!


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