Presentation on theme: "Latest IPCC Findings. Latest IPCC Findings Stern review and Economics Tackling climate change is a “pro-growth strategy” Showed that the costs of action."— Presentation transcript:
3Stern review and Economics Tackling climate change is a “pro-growth strategy”Showed that the costs of action to reduce emissions now will be 1% per year or less, whereas the damage costs of business as usual are likely to be in the order of 5 to 20 % of global GDP.London’s financial services sector bears the brunt of impacts wherever they occur in the world.2005 saw weather-related catastrophe losses total almost $80 Billion worldwide, and over 99% of all catastrophic losses were due to weather–related events.
5European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s observationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)2040s2003Temperature anomaly (wrt ) °C
6Hot in the city 600 people died in the August 2003 heatwave London had highest numbers of deaths for any UK regionLondon’s heat island means inner London can be up to 9°C warmer than the greenbeltFurther development may intensity the heat island effectNote benefits of green space protection and congestion charging policies
7How is London vulnerable to CC ? Note that London as an international city is vulnerable to climate change beyond the UK due toWorld city dependency on the global financial marketsEthic diversity – London is the most ethnically diverse city ion the world and is to home to many communities from many climate vulnerable countriesLimited manufacturing and ‘just in time’ logistics
9Current CO2 emissions from London Domestic38%Ground BasedTransport22%Industrial7%Commercial and public sector33%London’s annual CO2 footprint is about 44 million tonnes.Without action, we predict that by 2025 it would rise to 51 million tonnesEnergy use in existing homes is the largest contributor, at nearly 40%.Energy use by employers comprise a third.Ground based transport accounts for under a quarter.These figures ignore aviation – as do all the major treaties and targets on climate change.44 mt CO2
11Energy Strategy Objectives Reduce London’s contribution to climate change, by minimising emissions of carbon dioxide from all sectors (commercial, domestic, industrial and transport) through energy efficiency, combined heat and power, renewable energy and hydrogen;Help to eradicate fuel poverty, by giving Londoners, particularly the most vulnerable groups, access to affordable warmth;Contribute to London’s economy, by increasing job opportunities and innovation in delivering sustainable energy, and improving London’s housing and other building stock.There are no statutory Mayoral powers relating to energy. The Strategy sets out 33 policies and 70 proposals, many of which require partnership working with a range of organisations and individuals who have the responsibility and/or resources to effect implementation
12Mayor’s Climate Change Action Plan Four new programmesGreen HomesGreen CompaniesGreen TransportGreen Energy SupplyPlus action on GLA own activities and on new buildAn action-based, funded programme to tackle climate change
13Required CO2 reductions TodayProfile of national targets and aspirations (against 1990)10203040502000201020202030204020501990Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO2)45.1m44.3mProposed London reductions to achieve 450ppm stabilisation15%20%25%30%60%(vs 2000)Target for London = 60%10 year target (2016) = 20%600 million tonnes CO2 to 2025Until recently, science suggested stabilising atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550ppm would avoid catastrophic climate changeAll CO2 targets have been developed based on this understanding - including UK Government’s 60% aspiration by 2050Alterations to the London Plan targets were devised to put us on a path to achieving the 60% aspiration by 2050But the latest science indicates we need to stabilise at 450ppmFor London to do its part, it must limit the CO2 it emits between now and 2025 to 600 million tonnesImplies a year on year reduction of 4% - starting nowEssentially means we need a 60% cut in CO2 by 2025 instead of 2050
14Energy Hierarchy Use Less (Be Lean) Supply Energy Efficiently (Be Clean)Use Renewable Energy (Be Green)
15Prioritising decentralised energy generation and renewables Design to minimise CO2 emissions from the outsetMaximise passive design and integration with CCHP/CHPAll major new developments should establish or connect to a local combined cooling, heat and power networkMinimise need for active cooling systemsIncentivise new technologies, as an alternative to fossil fuelsFurther Alterations proposals - developments to achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of 20% from onsite renewable energy generationDecentralised energy
16Further Alterations to the London Plan Proposed new policy:Boroughs should ensure that all LDFs identify and safeguard existing heat and cooling networks and maximise the opportunities for providing new networks that are supplied by decentralised energy. Boroughs should ensure that all new development is designed to connect to the heating and cooling network. The Mayor will and boroughs should work in partnership to identify network opportunities, to ensure the delivery of these networks and to maximise the potential for existing developments to connect to them.Supporting text:This area wide approach should provide more market certainty for Energy Services Companies (ESCo) as it should remove some of the risk of developments not being designed to connect to decentralised energy. The scale of opportunity for delivery may also increase competition between ESCos and encourage the creation of small and medium size ESCos to deal with the different scales of development.
17Main Panel Recommendations on Climate Change Overwhelming support for Mayor’s approachNew policy on Living roofs and wallsNew policy on provision of heating and cooling networksClarification on SPG on Renewable energy and investigation of strategic fundReview of SPG on Sustainable design and construction and standards in relation to Code for Sustainable Homes
18Panel recommendations (2) Adaptation policy – add minimising water use and green infrastructureReference to role of soft landscaping in front gardensStandard for water usage in homes reduced to 105 litres/person/day for consistency with level 3 of Code
19Overall Savings – Existing London Plan Overall CO2 savings in tonnes/yearfrom energy efficiency (EE), CHP/CCHPand Renewable Energy measures(113 developments)CO2 emissions in tonnes/year from 113 developmentswith energy statements
20Cumulative CO2 savings over time (113 developments)
21Supporting publications Sustainable Design and Construction SPG: Published May 2006 and includes guidance how to approach community heating, CHP and CCHP in planning applications.London Renewables Toolkit: Published in September 2005 to provide technical support to GLA planners, London borough planners and applicants on incorporating renewable energy technologies in line with the Mayor’s London Plan policies.London Renewables ToolkitPaper toolkit, published in September 2004 (7 months after the London Plan)Provides info. on different renewable technologies most applicable to London (including what they look like, constraints they have and planning / legislative issues), the types of development they most suit and the costs and their benefitsElectronic Toolkit – Low Carbon DesignerUnder development, targeted mainly at engineers & architectsWill allow step by step considerations of the key technologies and design considerations in the 3 areas of energy – energy efficiency, efficient supply and renewable energy to ensure development consider all aspects of energy early onDual purpose – standard building but also to help those working toward zero carbon development
22UK Power Flow Pattern 2006/7broad estimate is that only 40% of the heat generated in the combustion process in grid power stations is used in the generation of electricityLosses in power through transmissions and distribution amount to approximately 9% of demand
23Decentralised energy generation Powering London into the 21st Century Report1:High Decentralised Energy Scenario from 2005 to 2025:33% Reduction in CO2 Emissions.35.5% of London’s Energy Demand.15% Reduction in Natural Gas Consumption.Fuel Flexibility (inc. Renewables).Local Security of Supply.1. Greenpeace Powering London into the 21st Century – March 2006
25Sources of savings from energy supply Micro-renewables7%Combined Cooling Heat & Power31%Changes in National Grid mix47%Savings from Energy Supply will come from four main sources – CCHP, Energy from biomass/waste, Micro generation and Changes in the national grid mix.CCHP can provide 31% of the savingsEnergy from Biomass/Waste can provide another 15%. Energy from waste/biomass will utilise the waste currently sent to landfill (where it emits methane) and convert this into a bio fuel which can be used as a fuel for combined heat and power, producing both electricity and heat at very low levels of CO2Changes in the national grid for example meeting the 20% renewables target will deliver 47% of the savings7% of savings will come from micro renewables, such as micro wind turbines and PV cells on Londoner’s homes and office buldings.15%Energy from biomass & waste
27Barriers to Increased Decentralised Energy There are serious market barriers which prevent decentralised energy from expanding to meet the climate change targets required of it.These are all matters that involve the interface between decentralised energy and the market for large scale, centrally generated electricity production:i) For all but the small schemes (which currently have licence exempt status), the costs and burdens associated with licensable status in respect of electricity supply and distribution;ii) The cost of standby and top – up (imported) electricity to decentralised generators and the price offered by licensed suppliers for exported power;iii) The arrangements with licensed electricity suppliers for the transport of licence exempt electricity between decentralised energy sites;There is an urgent need for reform of the electricity regulatory and licensing system, so that medium size and larger decentralised energy schemes do not have to participate in a market structure which is not designed for them, but at the same time fully protecting consumers.
28Investing in London’s Future Carbon scenarios to 2026Different technology scenarios costedHybrid scenario - £8.5 billion required over 20 yearsInvesting in the low carbon futureDelivery mechanisms discussed with investment communitySubstantial investment appetite identifiedOnward work looking at buying co-operative, rental scheme, project facilitation service & green fund.Scenarios in line with CCAP and other work – set agenda for future work – several Boroughs are now carrying out similar work at a local level to inform their CCAPs.Costs benchmarked and agreed with widespread stakeholder involvement.Ernst & Young – respected name in finance field which helped raise profile of work – they’ve contributed significant in kind time which illustrates their commitment to the LEP and the overall objectives and opportunities for the Green Fund etc.Clearly a market – demonstrated by in kind work provided by Earnst and Young in kind time.Proposals tested at event in May – we asked for 12 investors to respond but over 120 attended the event – demonstrating MASSIVE appetite for area.European Investment Bank have already entered into discussions with E&Y about investing in the green fund and they have indicated they are willing to invest (to the tune of £20 - £25 million).Discussions are taking place about structure of the fund and the portfolio of projects.
29C40 Cities Initiative on Commercial and Public Sector Buildings New end to end service with three elements:Energy auditCarbon reduction measuresLoan for upfront outlayWork with 5 of the world’s major banks and 4 Energy Services Companies$5 billion raised so far
30What’s on the Horizon?Carbon Reduction Commitment - Proposal to save emissions totalling 1.2 MtC/year by 2020 from large non energy intensive business and public sector organisationsOther consultations arising from Energy White Paper – ongoing Decentralised energy work by OFGEM and othersCarbon performance standards –Building Regulations tighteningCode for Sustainable BuildingsEnergy Performance of Buildings DirectiveLocal authority performance indicators