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School of Government and Public Policy SYRIAN CIVIL WAR & THE IMPACT ON ITS NEIGHBORS Faten Ghosn, PhD

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Presentation on theme: "School of Government and Public Policy SYRIAN CIVIL WAR & THE IMPACT ON ITS NEIGHBORS Faten Ghosn, PhD"— Presentation transcript:

1 School of Government and Public Policy SYRIAN CIVIL WAR & THE IMPACT ON ITS NEIGHBORS Faten Ghosn, PhD

2 School of Government and Public Policy Three Main Goals: – Domestic, regional and international factors that facilitated the civil war and how they differentiate Syria from Egypt and Tunis. – The main powerful rebel groups on the ground. – Spillover effect into neighboring countries. OUTLINE

3 School of Government and Public Policy Domestic – Failed Economic Liberalization; Impact of Sanctions; Dominance of Gulf Capital; Housing Crisis – Decline in subsidies to the population- 20% unemployment & 14% living in poverty (UNDP 2010) – Repression – Revival of Islamists in 2004 – Attacks/Assassinations/Bombings/Clashes with militant groups: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009; Political leaders as well as Moderate Religious clerics were being targeted Regional – Iraq War 2003 – Failed Israeli-Syrian Peace Process – Withdrawal from Lebanon, and accusations of assassinations – Arab Cold War: Sunni/Moderate Axis vs Shiite/Resistance Axis International – “War on Terror” & Deterioration of US-SYR Relations DOMESTIC, REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL FACTORS

4 School of Government and Public Policy MAIN DIFFERENCES

5 School of Government and Public Policy Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL/ISIS) ( داعش ) Al Nusra Front ( جبهة النصرة ) Islamic Front ( الجبهة الاسلامية ) Revolutionary Front of Syria ( جبهة ثوار سوريا ) Syria Military Command/Free Syrian Army ( القيادة العسكرية العليا / الجيش الحر ) MAIN REBEL GROUPS

6 School of Government and Public Policy

7 Political Impact—Tensions in forming Cabinet and Electing President. Security Impact—Car bombs, suicide attacks, clashes with security forces. Economic Impact—Loss of over 8 billion in tourism and 28 million in trade. Refugees—Over 1million registered refugees (27% of Lebanese Population). SPILLOVER: LEBANON

8 School of Government and Public Policy Political Impact— Increase in tensions; several protests breaking out. Security Impact—Clashes on border, smuggling and arms trafficking. Economic Impact—High Unemployment, escalating rents and the rising prices of basic goods. Refugees– 600,000 registered refugees (10% of Jordan’s population). SPILLOVER: JORDAN

9 School of Government and Public Policy ! شكرا Thank You!


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