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ROAD TO WAR. WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00 WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP.

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Presentation on theme: "ROAD TO WAR. WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00 WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP."— Presentation transcript:

1 ROAD TO WAR

2 WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00 WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00 STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT MULTIPLE THEATERS/HIGH OPTEMPO VW 16 CENTCOM MRC USFK Fall 2000 CINC USPACOM JTF PACIFICA EMERGING CRISIS IN PACIFICA LRC EUCOM CUBAN REFUGEES SOUTHCOM/ACOM

3 Emergence of assertive regional powers with clashing agendas Long standing ethnic and national divisions within region Regional competition for control of natural resources US strategic options influenced by –World wide military requirements –Domestic political and economic considerations –Long term regional objectives THEATER ENVIRONMENT

4 Guam Okinawa Theater Situation c Pacifica Chosun Eastland SURRAN East Isle CHOSUN MRC Crisis - #1 regional priority - FDO 1&2 deployed - War likely fall 2000 PACIFICA Crisis - UN Peace Keeping Operation fails - SURRAN introduction of forces East Sulu Sea Oil Fields - Huge new deposits - Ownership contested Japan

5 Guam Okinawa THREATS: EASTLAND SURRAN PPF Pacifica Chosun Eastland Surran East Isle PPF Japan

6 EASTLAND STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Establish regional leadership and role as world power. Reduce US influence in western Pacific region. Continue economic expansion; avoid direct confrontation with western market nations. Assure access to and control of East Sulu Sea oil fields through friendly surrogate nations. Support defeat of PACIFICA and supporting coalition forces. Installation of a friendly, rebel government in PACIFICA with basing rights for EASTLAND forces.

7 SURRAN STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Consolidate PACIFICA islands into “Greater Ethnic SURRAN” Assure access and control of Sulu Sea oil fields Continue economic expansion; exploit PACIFICA markets Establish itself as a leading regional power

8 SURRANIAN MILITARY OBJECTIVES Defeat Pacifican and supporting coalition forces Control of the Sulu Sea Island oil fields and supporting LOCs Neutralization of US influence in the region

9 PPF CONTROLLED AREAS CONTESTED AREAS PPF: A coalition of insurgents and breakaway Army units united in their opposition to the existing government. Rebel army units located on LUZON; insurgents throughout the islands. SPM: Surranian Peoples Movement PRA: Pacifican Rebel Army Pacifica PPF = SPM + PRA SPM SPM PRA PRA PACIFICAN PEOPLES FRONT (PPF)

10 Pacifica 1946 US grants PACIFICA independence. –PACIFICA & US sign defense pact. SURRAN begins war of national liberation to gain independence PACIFICA becomes charter member of South East Asia Treaty Organization. SURRAN gains independence. –Denounces SEATO. –Allies itself w/ RUSSIA & EASTLAND Surranian ethnic minority within PACIFICA begins insurgency on southern islands to gain independence from Luzon based PACIFICA government. Adopts name Surranian Peoples Movement (SPM) US grants PACIFICA independence. –PACIFICA & US sign defense pact. SURRAN begins war of national liberation to gain independence PACIFICA becomes charter member of South East Asia Treaty Organization. SURRAN gains independence. –Denounces SEATO. –Allies itself w/ RUSSIA & EASTLAND Surranian ethnic minority within PACIFICA begins insurgency on southern islands to gain independence from Luzon based PACIFICA government. Adopts name Surranian Peoples Movement (SPM). Road To War 1965 SPM

11 Pacifica 1966 PACIFICA President Luna declares martial law and seizes power. –US initiates military aid to PACIFICA. –SURRAN declares support for PACIFICA. Surranian separatist movement. SURRAN discovers oil and begins military and economic build up President Luna overthrown by “People’s Revolution”, tired of war and declining economy. Military backs the people during showdown. SPM continued low level insurgency in south. Terrorism spread to northern islands to include Luzon. –SURRAN continues aid declaring “Asia for Asians” theme PACIFICA President Luna declares martial law and seizes power. –US initiates military aid to PACIFICA. –SURRAN declares support for PACIFICA. Surranian separatist movement. SURRAN discovers oil and begins military and economic build up President Luna overthrown by “People’s Revolution”, tired of war and declining economy. Military backs the people during showdown. SPM continued low level insurgency in south. Terrorism spread to northern islands to include Luzon. –SURRAN continues aid declaring “Asia for Asians” theme. Road To War 1986 SPM 1986

12 Pacifica 1987 Failed negotiations result in US withdrawal from PACIFICA bases PACIFICA military coup attempt foiled by loyal troops and threat of US intervention. US cuts off military aid. Growing support for “Asia for Asian” movement among young military officers. Nationalistic PACIFICAN officers begin organizing. SPM continued success in south. Insurgency spread to northern islands to include Luzon. SURRAN continues aid, declaring “Asia for Asians” theme Oil and substantial mineral deposits discovered vicinity of East Sulu Sea Failed negotiations result in US withdrawal from PACIFICA bases PACIFICA military coup attempt foiled by loyal troops and threat of US intervention. US cuts off military aid. Growing support for “Asia for Asian” movement among young military officers. Nationalistic PACIFICAN officers begin organizing. SPM continued success in south. Insurgency spread to northern islands to include Luzon. SURRAN continues aid, declaring “Asia for Asians” theme Oil and substantial mineral deposits discovered vicinity of East Sulu Sea. Road To War 1988 Oil discovered East Sulu Sea 1992 Attempted Coup 1988 SPM I I 1987 SPM

13 Pacifica 1990s PACIFICA economy in doldrums. Counterinsurgency against SPM failing. AUG nd PACIFICA military coup attempt fails; civil war erupts on Luzon. SURRAN provides covert military aid and advisors to rebels and SPM insurgents. –Surranians declare support of army rebels and, “their just fight for freedom”. –SPM exploit situation to consolidate success in south. APR-JUL 1999 PACIFICA military stretched thin. US resumes military aid to salvage situation. USMAGPAC arrives in PACIFCA. 1990s PACIFICA economy in doldrums. Counterinsurgency against SPM failing. AUG nd PACIFICA military coup attempt fails; civil war erupts on Luzon. SURRAN provides covert military aid and advisors to rebels and SPM insurgents. –Surranians declare support of army rebels and, “their just fight for freedom”. –SPM exploit situation to consolidate success in south. APR-JUL 1999 PACIFICA military stretched thin. US resumes military aid to salvage situation. USMAGPAC arrives in PACIFCA. Road To War nd Coup/Civil War I I USMAGPAC HQ 1ST SFG (FWD) CO A (+), 2nd Bn USMAGPAC HQ 1ST SFG (FWD) CO A (+), 2nd Bn SPM SPM SPM

14 MAR-APR 2000 SPM and rebel army units form PPF, under Surranian pressure. PPF announces formation of independent Republic of Tuguegardo. MAY 2000 PACIFICA government counter- attack inflicts heavy losses on PPF on Luzon and stabilizes the situation. USMAGPAC expand to support PACIFICA army units supporting operations on Mindinao. MAR-APR 2000 SPM and rebel army units form PPF, under Surranian pressure. PPF announces formation of independent Republic of Tuguegardo. MAY 2000 PACIFICA government counter- attack inflicts heavy losses on PPF on Luzon and stabilizes the situation. USMAGPAC expand to support PACIFICA army units supporting operations on Mindinao. Road To War Pacifica PPF Tuguegardo MAY X USMAGPAC I SF USMAGPAC HQ 1ST SFG (FWD) 2BN 1ST SF USMAGPAC HQ 1ST SFG (FWD) 2BN 1ST SF PPF

15 X III Situation 1 JUN 2000 approximate locations of Rebel ( ) and Loyalist ( ) forces and SPM ( ) forces in Northern Luzon Tuguegardo Manila III XX X X X (-) X XX X X XXX PRA XX PRA (-) XX PRA (-) I I

16 JUN- JUL 2000 UN brokered cease fire agreement –UNFORPAC initiates Peace Keeping Operations. PPF refits and rearms. Insurgency continues on Mindinaroa; SPM seize Palawan. Challenges/local terrorist attacks on UN forces increase. UN sponsored humanitarian operations disrupted by PPF. JUN- JUL 2000 UN brokered cease fire agreement –UNFORPAC initiates Peace Keeping Operations. PPF refits and rearms. Insurgency continues on Mindinaroa; SPM seize Palawan. Challenges/local terrorist attacks on UN forces increase. UN sponsored humanitarian operations disrupted by PPF. Road To War Pacifica ZOS PPF 2000 SPM PPF

17 III XX Situation 1 JUL 2000 UNFORPAC approximate locations of Rebel ( ) Loyalist ( ) UNFORPAC ( ) SPM ( ) in Northern Luzon Tuguegardo Manila X XX ZOS XX X X XMEF X X X XXX PRA X XX PRA (-) XX PRA (-) ZOS

18 Pacifica Surran JUL 2000 PPF refits and rearms. PPF prepares to resume offensive across “ZOS”. SURRAN preparations detected; US NCA directs planning and preparation to support PACIFICA. JUL-OCT 2000 SURRAN intervenes; lands forces on Luzon. UNSCR calls for international support for PACIFICA. UN forces prepare to withdraw from PACIFICA US NCA orders deployment of JTF PACIFICA. UN forces killed by snipers along ZOS; detachments held “hostage” by PPF JUL 2000 PPF refits and rearms. PPF prepares to resume offensive across “ZOS”. SURRAN preparations detected; US NCA directs planning and preparation to support PACIFICA. JUL-OCT 2000 SURRAN intervenes; lands forces on Luzon. UNSCR calls for international support for PACIFICA. UN forces prepare to withdraw from PACIFICA US NCA orders deployment of JTF PACIFICA. UN forces killed by snipers along ZOS; detachments held “hostage” by PPF SURRANIAN INTERVENTION

19 SURRANIAN ACTIONS SURRAN conducted landings at the “Invitation of the PPF” to help defend TUGUEGARDO and Surranian ethnic rights in the region. Pronounced their mission as defensive and peaceful. Pledged not to attack the Pacifican government if not attacked. Intent is clearly to engage and defeat Pacifican forces. Reaction to International opposition –Positions ground forces along northern UN ZOS –Initiates sniper attacks on UN patrols; takes UN hostages –Assumes an offensive posture while landing additional forces and supplies –Continues its support to PPF preparations for a renewed offensive

20 Pacifica Crisis “The U.S. Responds”

21 KEY EVENT TIME LINE EVENTCRITICAL ACTIONDATE SURRAN prep detected NSC issues NSDD. 1 JUL 00 UN SC Resolution 763: Halt landings; begin force withdrawal within 10 days. 22 AUG 00 SURRAN does not withdraw UN SC Resolution 794: 45 days to withdraw or be compelled to do so. Air and Maritime exclusion zone imposed in 35 days. JCS EXORD/C-Day. 1 SEP 00 SURRAN does not withdraw JTF FRAGO #1 issued. I Corps moves out of assembly areas to establish defensive positions. 16 OCT 00 JCS Warning Order. 3 JUL 00 SURRAN landing UN SC Resolution 761: Halt landings; begin force withdrawal. 5 JUL 00Maritime/Air Exclusion Zone Imposed. 6 OCT 00 UN forces begin pulling back from ZOS and prepare to redeploy from PACIFICA. 8 OCT 00SURRAN harasses UN forces

22 Pacifica Exclusion Zone JTF PACIFICA JOA Surran OCTOBER 2000 JTF PACIFICA ESTABLISHED

23 THEATER STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Restore territorial integrity of PACIFICA (Luzon) Protection of East Sulu Sea oil and minerals to insure free and equitable access to benefits Prevent expansion of the war beyond theater of operations Minimize probability of renewed SURRAN offensive action Assist reestablishment of legitimate and viable government of PACIFICA Protect lives and property of US citizens

24 REBEL ARMY SURRAN SPM Tuguegaro Manila X X I I SR XXXX 10 (SR) XXXX 8 (SR) PRA XX (-) XX PRA (-) XXX 39 (SR) I I XX PRA (-) ZOS Situation 16 OCT 2000


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