Presentation on theme: "Strategies for communication of science and values for NRM Skryhan Hanna Krasnoyarsk, February, 17 – February, 22, 2014."— Presentation transcript:
Strategies for communication of science and values for NRM Skryhan Hanna Krasnoyarsk, February, 17 – February, 22, 2014
Traffic problems in Krasnoyarsk: Could the 4 th bridge solve them? Гидродинамическая модель улично-дорожной сети города Красноярска позволяет решать сложные узловые транспортные задачи и на микроуровне. Мощный шунт между транспортными системами северо-запада и юго-запада города позволяет распределить транспортное движение из центральной части города на новую скоростную магистраль. При этом снижается интенсивность движения в историческом центре Красноярска. Почти на треть возрастает средняя скорость транспортного потока. Разгружаются существующие мосты.
Хотели как лучше, получилось как всегда They intended the best, but what they got was the usual We try our best – you know the rest.
Post-normal science S.Funtowicz and J. Ravetz science.html
Elements of post-normal science: Appropriate management of uncertainty quality and value-ladenness; Plurality of commitments and perspectives; Internal extension of peer community (involvement of other disciplines); External extension of peer community (involvement of stakeholders in environmental assessment and quality control).
When science, policy, and decision- making meet G. A. Bradshaw, 2000
Characteristics of science and government (G. A. Bradshaw, 2000) ScienceGovernment Probability acceptedCertainty desired Inequality is a factEquality desired AnticipatoryTime ends at next election FlexibilityRigidity Problem orientedService oriented Discovery orientedMission oriented Failure and risk acceptedFailure and risk intolerable Innovation prizedInnovation suspect Replication essential for beliefBeliefs are situational Clientele diffuse, diverse, or not presentClientele specific, immediate, and insistent
G. A. Bradshaw, 2000
Bridge the gaps (Jacobs, 2002) (1) relevant to answering the specific policy question(s), (2) readily accessible and understandable by decision makers, (3) acceptable in terms of accuracy and trustworthiness, (4) compatible and usable in the specific decision making context, and (5) provided in a timely fashion
Ontological uncertainty If you've never seen either a windmill or a giant, one is as easy to believe in as the other. Cervantes
Uncertainties (Raadgever, 2011)
Communicating strategies of uncertainties: IGNORING
Uncertainty assessment. Strategy used, often in academic world, to get a better grip on uncertainty, e.g. by: – uncertainty identification, – uncertainty classification, – uncertainty quantification, – uncertainty propagation in models, – uncertainty prioritization. Can provide an efficient, target-oriented basis for uncertainty communication Communicating strategies of uncertainties: KNOWLEDGE GENERATION
Characterizations of likelihood for a graduated range of precision levels (Risbey and Kandlikar, 2007) Measure of likelihoodJustification Full probability density functionRobust, well defended distribution BoundsWell defended percentile bounds First order estimatesOrder of magnitude assessment Expected sign or trendWell defended trend expectations Ambiguous sign or trendEqually plausible contrary trend expectations Effective ignoranceLacking or weakly plausible expectations
Reduction of epistemic uncertainty. Strategy used to reduce epistemic uncertainty, e.g. by: – develop indicators and monitor, – data gathering, – experimentation, – quantitative simulation modeling, – qualitative assessment, – integrated assessment (tools), – use of expert opinions. Scenario study. The performance of alternative strategies is tested under several consistent and plausible pictures of how the future may unfold Communicating strategies of uncertainties: KNOWLEDGE GENERATION
Additional attention to reporting uncertainties if: (1) They highly influence the policy advice given The indicator outcomes are close to a policy goal, threshold or standard set by policy The indicator outcomes point to a possibility of morally unacceptable harm or catastrophic events Controversies among stakeholders are involved Value-laden choices and assumptions are in conflict with stakeholder views and interests
Fright factors/media triggers are involved There are persistent misunderstandings among audiences The audiences are expected to distrust outcomes that point to low risks Because the public perception is that the risks are serious The audiences are likely to distrust the results due to low or fragile Confidence in the researchers or the organisation that performed the assessment Additional attention to reporting uncertainties if: (2)
Communicating strategies of uncertainties: INTERACTION Communicating uncertainties from scientists to other actors in a policy debate allows the other actors to co-assess the quality of technical expertise and co-produce the relevant evidence. Communication may also be aimed at raising awareness among actors
Criteria for uncertainty communication 1. Uncertainty communication deals with information on uncertainty that is required by good scientific practice and that readers and users need to be aware of 2. The audiences should have access to the uncertainty information, and know where to find (more detailed) uncertainty information 3. The uncertainty information offered should be consistent (across different reports, different issues, different authors, et cetera). 4. Essential uncertainty information should be located in sections of the report that are most likely to be read by the audiences 5. The information on uncertainty is clear to the readers – minimise misinterpretation – minimise bias – minimise differences in interpretation between individuals
6. The information on uncertainty is not too difficult to process by the readers – not too much effort and time required to understand the method of representation – not too much effort and time required to retrieve the information itself 7. Uncertainty communication meets the information needs of the target audiences, and therefore is context dependent and customised to the audiences 8. The overall message (that is: knowledge claims and uncertainty information) is useful to the audiences for making policy decisions and/or for use in political/societal debates and/or for forming personal opinions (for assessments for policy advice) 9. The overall message (that is: knowledge claims and uncertainty information) is credible to the readers (well underpinned and unbiased) Criteria for uncertainty communication
Communicating strategies of uncertainties: INTERACTION Persuasive communication
Dialogical learning. Understanding one another’s perspectives better through open dialog and by encouraging learning on all sides. Dialogical learning may lead to mutual understanding, trust and support for management actions, or at least reduce resistance against actions. Negotiation. Reaching a mutually beneficial and integrative agreement that makes sense from multiple perspective. Communicating strategies of uncertainties: INTERACTION
Social Learning Strategy Framework
Communicating strategies of uncertainties: INTERACTION Oppositional modes of action. Distancing and avoiding each other or trying to impose your perspective upon others by force
Communicating strategies of uncertainties: INTERACTION
Preparing for the worst. Limiting potential negative consequences (controlling damage) of the case scenario (i.e. being conservative or precautionary). Adopting robust solutions. Adopt strategies that perform well under multiple scenarios. This may mean adopting multiple measures (diversifying solutions) to ensure that one or more will be effective under each of the possible scenarios. Developing resilience. Developing “the capacity” of a system to absorb recurrent disturbances, such as natural disasters, so as to retain essential structures, processes and feedbacks”. Adopting flexible solutions. Choosing flexible management strategies, which can be adapted to future changes. This may include adopting measures that are feasible within the timeframe of an unfolding potentially damaging event and that prevent or mitigate damage. Communicating strategies of uncertainties: COPING STRATEGIES
Example: ecosystem services assessment
Topology of values (Davidson, 2013)
Challenge for ecosystem services assessment (1) develop standardized comprehensive frameworks that integrate and organize the different sources of information and indicators of ecosystem services values, (2) combine the information from the biophysical-supply to the users’ demand; and (3)explore the multiple value-domains of ecosystem services
Frameworks (1)the function analysis framework (de Groot et al., 2002); (2)the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment framework (MA, 2003); (3)the ‘cascade model’ (Haines-Young and Potschin, 2010); (4)the Ecosystem Properties, Potentials, and Services (EPPS) framework(Bastian et al., 2012). (5)CSIRO (2012).
Methodological framework Haines-Young and Potschin (2010)