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Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP 1John J. Byrne ©2011
Introduction National Security Counsel Recommendations: Seaborne nuclear missile launch system using converted transports 1500 miles minimum range IRBM Augment U.S. Air force fleet of bombs U.S. Air Force develop ICBM 3John J. Byrne ©2011
1955 to 1957 U.S. Navy given 8 years to complete 4John J. Byrne ©2011
1955 to 1957 continued Political influences Senator McCarthy Korean War Soviet spying President Eisenhower Military industrial complex Garrison state Atom for Peace Funding 5John J. Byrne ©2011
Political influences continued Interservice rivalry Curtis LeMay Admiral’s Revolt – U.S.S. United States Naval culture – cruise missiles 6John J. Byrne ©2011
1955 to 1957 Technical Issues No such missile existed capable of satisfying the National Security Council’s requirements No warhead had yet been developed that was capable of being deployed on a missile capable of seaborne launch No launch system existed that was capable of launching a large missile from a ship No ship in the Navy inventory was capable of carrying and launching a large missile No guidance system existed that was accurate enough to guide a nuclear armed missile 1500 miles to its target with any degree of reliability whatsoever 7John J. Byrne ©2011
Technical Issues continued NSC requirements 8John J. Byrne ©2011
1955 to 1957 Initial Responses Stakeholder analysis - Risk averse SPO Commissioned China Lake study Jupiter and Transport requirements Not realistic 9John J. Byrne ©2011
1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued Must use submarines Need smaller missiles Need smaller warheads German experience Enlisted Dr. Teller 10John J. Byrne ©2011
1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued Created Polaris Ad hoc Group China Lake Project Atlantis Project Mercury 20 megaton Liquid or Solid fuel? 11John J. Byrne ©2011
1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued Nobska Assumptions and constrain analysis 1100 W-47 12John J. Byrne ©2011
Late 1957 Possible but dead in the water. 13John J. Byrne ©2011
Sputnik October 4, 1957 NASA New math Duck and cover drills NSF ARPA, DARPA, ARPANET Polaris 14John J. Byrne ©2011
Post Sputnik Risk seeking Partial funding restored 1100 miles accepted 15John J. Byrne ©2011
PERT Developed PERT Project and activity standard deviation Earned Value Management 16John J. Byrne ©2011
PERT Applied 17John J. Byrne ©2011 Polaris Risk ManagementTypical Risk Management Determine time estimates (TE) from PERT estimates of activity duration Risk Management Planning Calculate standard deviations and rank activities based on these standard deviation Risk Identification Perform selective Risk IdentificationRisk Qualification Analyze and prioritize risksRisk Quantification Create proactive and reactive response plans Risk Response Planning Monitor and Control Risks using EVMRisk Monitoring and Control
Specific Issues Build or modify? - early version of decision tree analysis Lockheed & Kelley Johnson 14 rules 19 launch failures and available parts Submarine launch system - popup testing – San Clemente 18John J. Byrne ©2011
Specific Issues continued Transferred Oxygen Carbon dioxide Carbon monoxide Water Scorpion to George Washington 19John J. Byrne ©2011
Specific Issues continued Technical disputes Navigation issues: Missile – 1100 miles Submarine - SINS – GPS Warhead reentry 20John J. Byrne ©2011
Risk management techniques SPO set goals SPO communication management Field locations employed EMV and reported to SPO 21John J. Byrne ©2011
Risk management techniques No top-down control Empowered field locations Independent decision making Sharing of budgets amongst individual entities 22John J. Byrne ©2011
Conclusions Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo SPO kept project moving without budget Managed competing key stakeholder expectations 23John J. Byrne ©2011
Conclusions Centralized/ decentralized organization Clear vision and goals Sputnik Realized its own shortcoming – PERT 24John J. Byrne ©2011
Conclusions Hass (2009) Not focus on best PM Focus on managing diverse group of experts 25John J. Byrne ©2011
Final word June 9, 1959 George Washington launched Commissioned December 30, 1959 Launch July 20, John J. Byrne ©2011
Final word Cuban Missile Crisis Cold War Considered most successful DOD project ever 27John J. Byrne ©2011
Contact Information Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP Polaris: Lessons in Risk management 28John J. Byrne ©2011
References Appleton Public Library (2003). Joseph McCarthy (1908 – 1957). Retrieved from: Babcock, Elizabeth. (2008). Magnificent Mavericks History of the Navy at China Lake, California Volume 3. China Lake Museum Foundation: China Lake, California. Barkley, Bruce T. (2004). Project Risk Management. New York: McGraw-Hill. Byrne, John (2011). Polaris: Lessons in Risk Management. Ontario, Canada: Multimedia Publications. Carbone, Thomas A. and Sampson Gholston. (2004). Project manager skill development: A survey of programs and practitioners. Engineering Management Journal, 16(3): Retrieved from Coleridge, Samuel. (n. d.) The Rime of the Ancient Mariner. Retrieved from: literature.com/coleridge/646.http://www.online- literature.com/coleridge/646 Emme, Eugene. (1961). Aeronautics and Astronautics: An American Chronology of Science and Technology in the Exploration of Space, Washington, D.C.: NASA. Fact (n. d.). In Merriam-Webster Dictionary online. Retrieved form webster.com/netdict/fact.http://www.merriam- webster.com/netdict/fact Federation of American Scientists (2000). R-13/SS-N-4 Sark. Retrieved from: Garber, Steve. (2007). Sputnik and the Dawn of the Space Age. National Atmospheric and Space Administration. Retrieved from 29John J. Byrne ©2011
Hass, Kathleen (2008). Managing Complex Projects a New Model. Management Concepts: Vienna, Virginia. Heldman, Kim. (2009). PMP® Project Management Professional Exam Study Guide 5 th Edition. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley Publishing. Heldman, Kim. (2005). Project Manager’s Spotlight on Risk Management. Alameda, CA. SYBEX Inc. Herken, Gregg (2002). Brotherhood of the Bomb. Holt Paperback: New York. Hillson, David, & Simon, Peter. (2007). Practical Project Risk Management: the ATOM Methodology. Vienna, Virginia: Management Concepts. Hillson, David. (2002). The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) as an Aid to Effective Risk Management. Presented at the Fifth European Project Management Conference, PMI Europe 2002, Cannes, France. Knemeyer, Franklin, (2003). Concept Formulation of the Navy’s FBM. U.S. Naval Ordinance Testing Station, China Lake, California. Knemeyer, Franklin, (1957). Notes from Origin of Atlantis. U.S. China Lake Naval Ordinance Testing Station, China Lake, California. Lockheed Martin (2011). Kelly’s 14 Rules and Practices. Retrieved from: Meilinger, Phillip. (1989). The Admirals’ Revolt of 1949: Lessons for Today. Parameters: September, 1989, pages National Science Foundation (ed.) (2010). A Timeline of NSF History. National Science Foundation. Retrieved from 30John J. Byrne ©2011
Polmar, Norman. (2003). The Polaris a Revolutionary Missile System and Concept. United States Navy Historical Center. Retrieved from Project Management Institute. (2008). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) 4 th Edition. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. Raborn, William. (n. d.). Retrieved from Rhodes, Richard (1986). The Making of the Atomic Bomb. Simon & Schuster Paperbacks: New York. Royer, Paul. (2002). Project Risk Management A Proactive Approach. Vienna, Virginia: Management Concepts. Sapolsky, Harvey. (n. d.) The U.S. Navy’s Fleet Ballistic Missile Program and Finite Deterrence. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Schuyler, John. (2001). Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects 2 nd Edition. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. Söderlund, Jonas & Lenfle, Sylvain (2010). Project History. International Journal of Project Management, Version 1.1 December 30, 2010 Sputnik 1 (n. d.). Retrieved from Sputnik Crisis (n. d.). Retrieved from Standish Group (2009, April 23). New Standish Group report shows more project failing and less successful projects. Standish Group Retrieved from 31John J. Byrne ©2011
Stewart, James, Meise, Oliver, & Stephens, Ivan (n. d.) The U-Boat Rocket Program. Retrieved from: Symptom (n. d.). In Merriam-Webster Dictionary online. Retrieved from webster.com/netdict/symptom.http://www.merriam- webster.com/netdict/symptom Tague, Nancy. (2004). The Quality Tool Box 2 nd edition. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: ASQ Quality Press. Van Atta, Richard. (n. d.) Fifty Years of Innovation and Discovery. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency – United States Department of Defense. Retrieved from Watson, John (1998). The Origin of the APL Strategic Systems Department. John Hopkins Technical Digest, v19 number 4. Weir, Gary (n. d. ). Deep Ocean, Cold War. U. S. Naval Historical Center. Retrieved from Westrum, Ron. (1999). Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake. Naval Institute Press: Annapolis. Wideman, R. M. (ed.) (1992). Project & Program Risk Management: a Guide to Managing Project Risks & Opportunities. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. 32John J. Byrne ©2011
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