Presentation on theme: "Lean Supply Chains: The Foundation"— Presentation transcript:
1Lean Supply Chains: The Foundation System’s PerspectiveUnderstand supply chain dynamics and adopt a holistic view.Consider the business ecosystem in which you are operating.Supply Chain DynamicsEnterprises can experience huge variations at each step in the chain, with variations typically more pronounced the further upstream the enterprise is from the ultimate user.
2Demand Distortion Results in: Larger inventory carrying costs Lost sales from stock outsLack of responsiveness to customer demand
3Bullwhip EffectA slight motion of the handle of a bullwhip can make the top thrash wildly at up to 900mph.Increasing demand variability as you move upstream.Most demand distortion is caused by the supply chain itself, not by the customer.Results in:excessive inventory investmentpoor customer servicelost revenuesmisguided capacity planningineffective transportationIneffective production schedules.
4 The Beer GameUnderscores the importance of understanding supply chain dynamics and applying systems thinking to coordinate activities within and between enterprises.Explains the crucial role lead times play in enhancing or inhibiting competitivenessElaborates on the role of information systems in the lean supply chain.
5Assumptions Assumes a linear SC, 4 enterprises, one type of beer Goal is to manage demand as imposed by it’s customerEach enterprise has only one managerRuns for 50 wks.RetailerFactoryDistributorWholesaler
6AssumptionsEach week, an enterprise receives an order from downstream customers and places an order upstream.Two week lead time between when an order is placed and when it is received.Another two week lead time before the order is delivered.Each enterprise starts with 12 cases of beer.At the beginning of each week we know what demand will be.
7Playing the gameEveryone acts in their own self interest on the basis of their own forecastsThe system is in a steady state with demand at four cases each week.In week 5, demand is disrupted to 8 cases a week and remains constant.Each player’s ordering policy is based on two rules
8Demand Forecast RuleThe forecast rule: The weekly demand for each of the next four weeks is the average of the weekly demand over the four most recent weeks. Four period moving average: ( )/4=4
9Order Quantity RuleGiven the forecasts, the amount ordered is just enough to replenish the ending inventory (Four weeks from now-when the order arrives) to a target of 12 cases.12+(Forecast demand for next 4 weeks)-(current inventory)-(Orders already placed for the next three weeks.
14The variation doubles at each stage. RetailerWholesalerDistributorFactory200%1,600%400%800%The variation doubles at each stage.However, of the 64-case increase in the factory's orders, only four cases were directly attributable to a change in consumer demand.The lead times present in this value stream created 94 percent of the variation observed in the factory’s orders.
15The Implications of Lead Time on the Bullwhip Effect RetailersWarehouses/DistributorsManufacturersLead times significantly exacerbate the bullwhip effectReducing lead time, in combination with improved visibility along the supply chain, can significantly and positively relieve the bullwhip effect15
16The impact of information Assume all of the same factors except that each stage is aware of the customer’s orders.Assume we know that demand for week six and onward is five cases.Following exactly the same steps.
18Retailer orders 12 cases- a 200% increase WholesalerWholesaler orders 16 cases- a 300% increaseDistributorDistributor orders 20 cases- a 400% increaseManufacturer order Raw Materials to make 24 cases- a 500% increaseManufacturer
19The Impact of Information on the Bullwhip Effect Perfect forecasting does not eliminate the bullwhip effectLesson: The bullwhip effect is present even if there is perfect information about the future that is shared among all channel partners.19
20The Impact of Lead Time on the Bullwhip Effect Lead times can multiply the variation in demand and so everyone in the supply chain should be working to reduce lead times.The implications of Little's Law are that when inventory in the supply chain is high, lead times increase, and, conversely, longer lead times result in more inventories in the pipeline.This problematic and cyclical relationship between lead times and inventory is a powerful reason for reducing lead times.20
21Structure Drives Behavior: Causes of the Bullwhip Effect Lack of visibilityLong lead timeMany stages in the supply chainLack of pull signalsOrder batchingPrice discount and promotionsForward buyingRationing21
22Other Behaviors that Cause the Bullwhip Effect Over-reaction to backlogsNeglecting to order to reduce inventoryHoarding customersShortage gaming for customersDemand forecast inaccuraciesAttempts to meet end-of-month metrics22
23Ways to Mitigate the Bullwhip Effect Reduce lead timesUse/sharing of POS dataSmaller ordersWork with suppliers on more frequent deliveries of smaller order incrementsUse stable pricing, “everyday low prices”Levels out customer demandAllocation based on past sales23