1. C RIME P REVENTION IN THE S OUTHERN R AIL C ORRIDOR Associate Professor Trudi Cooper, Dr Paul Cozens and Dr Terry Love, Dr Frank Morgan and Dr Joe Clare

2. P URPOSE OF THE PROJECT Project sponsored by the OCP Purpose to provide comprehensive, accurate, timely, and useful information to support policy makers To inform evidence-based decisions about strategy, service deployment and resource allocation for crime prevention along the Southern Rail Corridor.

3. F UTURES METHODOLOGY ‘Futures’ approaches uses different data gathering methods to anticipate emerging issues that will influence crime Assumes successful crime prevention uses multiple strategies Methods include environmental scanning; expert knowledge; situational crime prevention; and scenario planning Enables preventative strategies to be put in place before problems becomes widespread

4. P REVIOUS WA RESEARCH Builds on previous research by Crime Research Centre Household Survey Youth Rail Interagency Research project

5. CRC SURVEY FINDINGS Modest but significantly lower rates of burglary along Southern Rail suburbs compared with other metropolitan suburbs. Southern Rail suburbs reported higher levels of informal social control, fewer perceived social problems and greater eagerness to remain living in the local area.

6. I NTERAGENCY Y OUTH R AIL F INDINGS Rail ticketing issues trigger incidents that escalate Interagency cooperation creates opportunities for constructive intervention for intractable problems Some young people use rail services to escape from difficult home circumstances. Anticipated changes to young people’s venues due to accessibility of attractive locations (how soon?)

7. T HINK T ANKS Two expert think tanks Think tank 1: Share local knowledge and perceptions of issues: Think tank 2: Scenario planning: to anticipate discontinuous situations with serious consequences and proactively mitigate worst potential consequence.

8. C OMPLEMENTARY A PPROACHES Think Tank 1: identifies ‘near future’ issues predictable from existing expert knowledge. Assumes the immediate future will be similar to the present; Provided a basis for think tank 2 Think Tank 2: identifies unpredictable (and potentially serious) events with implications for crime prevention; Assumes that sometimes events occur which create sudden unpredictable social and community change

9. T HINK T ANK 1 Used environmental scanning Expert knowledge (List)

10. T HINK T ANK 1: S OME ‘ SINGLE ISSUES ’ IDENTIFIED Night transport from rail nodes (bus or taxi connections) Increased access to beaches / cafes/ nightspots – particularly Mandurah, Rockingham and Perth. Toilet issues Leavers events: Will Mandurah attract schoolies? Party accessibility (flash mobs, ‘swarming’, etc) Seasonal problems? Summer, hot weather

11. S OME ‘ SINGLE ISSUES ’ IDENTIFIED Lack of finances/ transport home after clubs close ‘Lock-ins’ create safety problems if people miss trains Homelessness issues - no youth shelters. (Experts mentioned not clear about connection with rail line) Car parking issues, insufficient parking, feeder networks not good enough Seniors use of gophers: insufficient parking and gophers are not permitted on trains.

12. S OME ‘ SINGLE ISSUES ’ IDENTIFIED Developments around stations to create passive surveillance opportunities and new social hubs but not yet developed in some key locations, for example Kwinana Existing relationships between agencies patchy (e.g. police, local government and rail security). Prejudiced perceptions? Community expectation of increased crime? Imported crime from other metropolitan corridors because of ease of travel Facilitates mobility between low socio-economic areas and affluent areas

13. C OMPOUND I SSUE 1: V ISITING P ERTH FOR ITS NIGHT LIFE Travelling home after drinking, on a rail system with which provides no on-train toilet facilities and few on-station facilities after dark. Being locked out on the streets in Perth between the last train at night and the first train in the morning. Being unable to get home after using the train.

14. P REDICTED CONSEQUENCES : V ISITING P ERTH FOR NIGHT LIFE Together, these imply a number of crime concerns including car theft, assaults, increased risk of victimisation and anti-social behaviour around station nodes and walking routes with no onward transport.

15. C OMPOUND ISSUE 2: N O T RANSPORT FROM TRAIN Transport to and from the rail line poor, poor integration between trains and buses/ taxis Likely to increase incidence of crime and anti-social behaviour especially intoxicated individuals and groups at night. For Mandurah and Rockingham, typical end-stage travel involves intoxicated visitors walking 1-3 km through residential suburbs

16. P REDICTED CONSEQUENCES : N O T RANSPORT FROM TRAIN Associated with criminal and anti-social behaviour (noise, vandalism, litter, urination, graffiti, theft) as groups make their way home from the stations Likelihood of crimes and antisocial behaviour associated with route from station to final destination

17. P REDICTED CONSEQUENCES : I NCREASED CRIME DISTRIBUTION Along station feeder routes Potentially provides easier access to crime targets in the southern suburbs for criminals in the north and vice versa. Ease of access is likely to redistribute crime Initially, constrained in southern suburbs by lower population levels Development will change crime patterns

18. P REDICTED CONSEQUENCES : C RIME DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIL LINE Vehicle break in and entry to parked cars at stations Assaults, thefts, bullying around transport nodes when safe onward transport unavailable Ticketing issues as triggers for other offences

19. Increase effort Increase risk Reduce rewards Reduce provocations Remove excuses Target Harden Extend guardianship Conceal target Reduce frustration and stress Set rules Control access to facilities Assist natural surveillance Remove targets Avoid disputes Post instructions Screen exits Reduce anonymity Identify property Reduce emotional arousal Alert conscience Deflect offenders Utilise place managers Disrupt markets Neutralise peer pressure Assist compliance Control tools / weapons Strengthen formal surveillance Deny benefits Discourage imitation Control drugs and alcohol S ITUATIONAL C RIME P REVENTION T ECHNIQUES Adapted from Cornish and Clarke (2003)

20. S UCCESSFUL S ITUATIONAL C RIME P REVENTION The findings from Think Tank 1 suggest that several steps have already been taken in the planning stage for the Mandurah Perth Link For example, station design already deploys many ‘passive’ crime prevention features including ‘target hardening’ ‘control of access to facilities’ ‘set rules’ ‘natural surveillance’ ‘formal surveillance’ etc.

21. S UGGESTED A DDITIONAL S ITUATIONAL C RIME P REVENTION Some ‘natural surveillance’ not yet in place, e.g. Kwinana Other crime prevention should focus on steps to ‘reduce frustration’ and ‘assist compliance’. In particular Onward transport from station Monitor whether provision of toilet facilities would be beneficial

22. T HINK T ANK 2 Scenario Planning: Expect the unexpected

23. S CENARIO P LANNING - O VERVIEW Scenario Planning: insight process for policy makers to provide decision support to policy makers Insight process differs from ‘research to prove outcomes’ Insights in planning for the future Timescale – over 10 years away Key features of scenarios: possible and uncomfortable

24. S CENARIO P LANNING - P URPOSES Help policy-makers to anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilities Insights support future decision making Supports pre-response planning of strategic action

25. T HINK T ANK 2 S IMPLIFIED PLAN 1. Identify stakeholders, driving forces, and trends 2. Key uncertainties 3. Build alternative scenarios 4. Develop crime reduction strategies

26. S ESSION 1: P RELIMINARY Building scenarios for understanding crime in the Southern Rail corridor (10 years in future) Identify: major stakeholders driving forces basic trends

27. S ESSION 1: P RELIMINARY Building scenarios for understanding crime in the Southern Rail corridor (10 years in future) Identify: major stakeholders driving forces basic trends

28. E XAMPLE : S TAKEHOLDERS Stakeholders are anyone likely to have an interest in crime and crime prevention, e.g. Police Crime syndicates PTA Senior citizen groups etc…

29. E XAMPLE : D RIVING F ORCES Driving forces are circumstances that have the capacity to affect crime, for example: demographics, transport changes, employment location and opportunities housing location technology resource availability wealth distribution policy environment

30. E XAMPLE : T RENDS Plausible trends are social changes that whose future changes are predictable, in the areas of social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA)

31. S ESSION 2: K EY U NCERTAINTIES Identify key uncertainties: Process Map driving forces on two axes: uncertain/ predictable and important/unimportant Select only important and unpredictable driving forces. Identify extremes Check for unhappy powerful stakeholders or not in preferred situation How will powerful stakeholders’ actions influence Is it possible to create probable scenarios only considering the stakeholders?

32. E XAMPLE : T WO A XES

33. S ESSION 3: S CENARIOS Create 2-4 scenarios Based on important/unpredictable drivers and powerful stakeholders seeking their preferred equilibrium Focus on possible and uncomfortable scenarios Where appropriate put all positive drivers in one scenario and all negative drivers in another (avoid best case and worst case) Review scenarios – do they make sense? Characterise each scenario by a ‘catchy’ phrase

34. P ROCESS Choose unpredictable drivers and powerful stakeholders (from session 2) Develop description of scenario (incorporate know trends) Catchy Title Write up

35. S ESSION 4: S TRATEGIES Explore strategies to reduce crime For each scenario identify The most likely effective strategies that match that scenario The pathway from current strategies

36. T HINK T ANK 2: R ESULTS Three scenarios were developed List

37. B OOM AND D OOM Explored the consequences for crime of an extended and accelerating boom and also of a sudden economic recession Examined positive and negative social consequences of an extended rapid boom and of sudden recession Concluded that an accelerated boom created adverse social conditions likely to increase crime and was not necessarily beneficial from a crime perspective Suggested for crime prevention some attempts should be made to manage rate of economic growth and social consequences

38. T HINK T ANK 2: S UMMARY Big picture response Allows people to question previous assumptions about present and future Useful for long term proactive policy development Participant evaluation was positive and reported found the process useful

39. A NY Q UESTIONS ?

40. T O BE CONTINUED … Thank You