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United Natural Foods, Inc. Covering Analyst: Matthew Miller

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Presentation on theme: "United Natural Foods, Inc. Covering Analyst: Matthew Miller"— Presentation transcript:

1 United Natural Foods, Inc. Covering Analyst: Matthew Miller

2 Investment Thesis ›United Natural Foods has experienced significant growth ›Market has priced in expected growth ›Currently United Natural Food’s stock is overvalued

3 Business Overview ›Founded 1996 from merger of two regional distribution companies ›First nationwide distributor of natural, organic and specialty products ›First firm in U.S. certified by QAI

4 Scale of Operations ›U.S. & Canada ›27,000 customers ›26 distribution centers ›65,000 SKU’s ›4,800 suppliers

5 Products as Percent of Revenue

6 Wholesale Industry ›Revenue projected to decline by 1.5% in 2013 ›Low margins ›Competition from direct distribution

7 Natural & Organic Products Industry ›Growing at about 10% per year ›Expected to continue at 9% or higher ›Growth driven by demand for healthy and environmentally sustainable products

8 Comparables ›Growth ›Beta ›Margins ›Industry Similarities ›Market Capitalization

9 Comparables ›Whole Foods Market – 30% ›Costco – 30% ›Core-Mark – 20% ›Hain Celestial – 10% ›Sysco – 10%

10 Comparables Valuation Multiple Implied PriceWeight EV/Revenue % EV/Gross Profit % EV/EBIT % EV/EBITDA % EV/(EBITDA-Capex) % P/E % Price Target $51.73 Current Price Overvalued (1.44%)

11 DCF Analysis ›Revenue Model –4 segments ›Supernatural ›Conventional ›Natural Products Retailers ›Other ›Revenue growth driven by continued demand for healthy, safe & sustainable products

12 Percent of Revenue by Segment 2012

13 Revenue Mix Over Time

14 Percent of Revenue by Segment 2018

15 Whole Foods Market ›New stores opened in 2012 –25 ›In development –79 ›United Natural Foods primary supplier in all regions –Under contract through 2020

16 DCF Assumptions ›Cogs increasing as a % of revenue ›Gross margin decreasing ›SG & A decreasing as a % of revenue ›Operating margin expanding 9-12 bps

17 DCF Valuation ›Implied price of DCF: $38.10 ›Overvalued by 27.42%

18 DCF Valuation ›Possible reasons –Beta –Market Risk Premium

19 Sensitivity Analysis of Beta Implied Price Terminal Growth Rate 382.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0% Adjusted Beta

20 Sensitivity Analysis of Market Risk Premium Implied Price Terminal Growth Rate 382.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0% Market Risk Premium 5% % % % %

21 Implied Price Final Price Implied PriceWeight DCF Implied Price$ % Comparables Implied Price$ % Price Target $48.32 Current Price $52.49 Overvalued (7.94%)

22 Portfolio Position # of sharesCost Basis/shareCurrent PriceReturn Tall Firs350$34.87$ % Svigals40$34.85$ %

23 Note ›United Natural Foods reports 1 st quarter earnings Nov 30 –Expected Revenue: $1.381 Bn

24 ›Based upon my DCF & comparables analysis, I found United Natural Food’s stock to be overvalued. Therefore, I recommend a sell for both the Tall Firs and Svigals portfolios. Recommendation

25 Questions?


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