Presentation on theme: "Numerical Modeling of the Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Northwest Hydrology Jennifer Adam October 12, 2009 Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental."— Presentation transcript:
1 Numerical Modeling of the Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Northwest Hydrology Jennifer Adam October 12, 2009 Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering
3 Background B.S., University of Colorado, Boulder, 1997 Focus: environmental engineering, research on the removal of manganese in nitrification filtersPeace Corps, Solomon Islands,secondary education, mathematicsM.S., University of Washington, 2002Focus: hydrology, research on removal of biases in precipitation observationsPh.D., University of Washington, 2007Focus: hydrology, climate change impacts on streamflow in Northern EurasiaAssistant Professor, WSU, 2008-present
4 RESEARCH Hydrological Modeling Climate Change Impact Analysis Land Use Change Impact Analysis
5 Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issuesExamples of current research projects
6 Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issuesExamples of current research projects
7 Temperature ChangesGlobally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860.IPCC AR4 (2007)
11 Predicted changes in the Pacific Northwest (by 2040) Temperature:+1.4 to 2.7 °CPrecipitation:Fall, Winter, Spring: +2.3 to 5.8%Summer: -5.1 to -11.2%UW CIG Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment (2009)
12 Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issuesExamples of current research projects
14 [Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.] 1. Greenhouse Gas Emission ScenariosFuture climate effects depends on future emissions of important greenhouse gases such as CO2 - a socioeconomic uncertainty[Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.]
15 2. The Global Climate Model (GCM) A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffie, A Climate Modelling Primer, Wiley, 1987
16 3. Downscaling GCM Downscaled Original GCM values Slide courtesy of A. Wood
17 4. Hydrological Modeling Water BalanceEnergy BalanceVariables that are a function of temperatureET = f(LH)MoistureStoragePETQHeatStorage, TRsRlwGHLHSHSlide courtesy of A. Wood
18 Examples of Hydrology Models Physically-basedFully-distributedContinuousVIC: 100 km x 100 kmDHSVM: 150 m x 150 m
19 Required Land Surface Characteristics Puget Sound Regional Synthesis Model (PRISM)
20 Adding reservoir operations to a modeling system VIC Hydrology ModelRiver Routing ModelReservoir Model1234Adam et al. 2007
21 Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issuesExamples of current research projects
22 (1) Improving the adaptability of dryland agriculture to climate change Who?Josh Van Wie (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010)Jeff Ullman (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering)Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)Motivation and GoalsDryland (non-irrigated) agriculture may become more vulnerable in a changing climateTherefore, we are seeking to understand which agricultural practices may improve soil water retention for crop use
24 Preliminary Model Results (using DHSVM) Drainage NetworkLand CoverTopographySimulatedObserved
25 Future Directions Near-Term: Longer-Term: Adjusting DHSVM soil and vegetation parameters to account for changes in cropping practices (e.g., traditional versus conservation tillage)Applying DHSVM to examine the hydrologic impacts of a widespread adoption of conservation practicesLonger-Term:Coupling to a dynamic crop growth model (CropSyst) to examine the impacts on crop yieldPerforming climate change simulations to examine the adaptability of Palouse Basin agriculture to climate alterations
26 (2) Impacts of climate change and forest practices on landslide susceptibility Who?Muhammad Barik (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010)Balasingam Muhunthan (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)And others…Motivation and GoalsClimate change may increase landslide susceptibility in commercial forests with steep terrain. This may result in an increase of sediment to streams and rivers with ecological consequences.We seek to explore what best management practices in commercial forests will promote the protection of riparian areas in an altered climate.
27 Study Area: Basins of the Olympic Experimental State Forest (OESF)
29 Infiltration and Saturation Excess Runoff DHSVM Erosion and Sediment Transport ModuleHILLSLOPE EROSIONSoil Moisture ContentCHANNEL ROUTINGPrecipitationLeaf DripInfiltration and Saturation Excess RunoffDHSVMQQsedSedimentMASS WASTINGErosionDepositionROADEROSIONChannel Flow
30 (3) Impacts of climate change on sediment generation in the Potlatch Basin Who?Erika Ottenbreit (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010)Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)Motivation and GoalsSediment generated over agriculture areas may end up in streams and rivers causing a variety of environmental and engineering problems.Therefore, we are seeking to understand how sediment generation in agricultural basins may be impacted by projected changes in climate.
31 Study Area: The Potlatch Basin Application of DHSVM hydrology and sediment modulesWill simulate sediment generation for historical and future climatesEvaluation of model results with a turbidity meter near the basin outletLatah CountyClearwater River
32 (4) Impacts of climate change on stormwater runoff across the PNW Who?Greg Karlovits (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010)Liv Haselbach (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)Motivation and GoalsClimate change may result in increased flooding because extreme rainfall events may become more frequent, more precipitation will fall as rain (versus snow). There is a need to identify the critical stormwater infrastructure in the region.We are seeking to develop regional maps showing how runoff volumes (due to the 2-year, 25-year, and 50-year storms) are changing in response to projected climate change. We will be placing confidence bounds on these estimates.
33 Impacts on extreme rain events Model simulated changes in extreme rainfall, southern England.Huntingford et al. 2006
34 (5) Water supply and demand forecasting over the Columbia River Basin Who?Kirti Rajagopalan (PhD Student)Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)Claudio Stockle (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering)Mike Brady (Faculty, Economics)And many others…Motivation and GoalsClimate change is expected to change Columbia flows, while temperature changes impact crop water use. Changes in water supply as well as the socioeconomic environment will impact the type of crop being cultivated as well as the irrigation efficiency.We will be forecasting (for the year 2030) water supply and irrigation-water demand over the Columbia River Basin as information required by the WS Dept of Ecology to make water allocation decisions.
35 Study Area: The Columbia River Basin 1,250 miles longDrains 258,000 square milesContributing runoff from 7 states and 2 countriesHighly regulated
37 (6) Coupled Air/Land Modeling of the Nitrogen Cycle Funding through a new IGERT, “Nitrogen Systems: Policy- oriented Integrated Research and Education (NSPIRE)”Who?PI Brian Lamb (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)Multiple others: Shane Brown, Bill Budd, Dave Evans, Andy Ford, Kris Johnson, Kent Keller, Bill Pan, Shelley Pressley, …Motivation and GoalsAn improvement in the management of Nitrogen use is paramount. Environmental Nitrogen causes problems both to human and environmental health. Conversely, its sustainable production is needed for agricultural purposes.An improved understanding of Nitrogen genesis, fate, and transport in the environment can be improved by a coupled atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere modeling tool.
38 TEACHING CE 351 Water Resources Engineering CE 456 Sustainable Development in Water ResourcesCE 552 Hydroclimatology
39 CEE 543 Hydroclimatology Spring semester Topics Basics of hydrologic and climate sciencesIntroduction of analysis tools: statistics, hydrological modeling, climate data downscaling, remote sensingLiterature review of climate change impacts on the water cycle
40 CE 456 Sustainable Development in Water Resources Fall semesterNew class (first teaching Fall 2009)Elective for CEE studentsTopicsWater resource supplies in the Pacific NorthwestCurrent and future water demandsClimate change impacts on water suppliesCurrent developments in sustainable designRisk analysis
41 CE 351 Water Resources Engineering Offered Every Fall and Spring semesterRequired course for all CEE undergraduatesTopicsPipe flowPumping systemsIntroduction to open channel flowIntroduction to hydrology
43 Example. Impacts on water supplies and flooding potential
44 Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply) for “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios+1.7 C+2.5 CSlide courtesy of Alan Hamlet, UW CIG
45 Mapping of global snowmelt-dominated regions Approximately 1/6th of the world’s population may be affectedBarnett et al. 2005
46 Mapping of Washington State snowmelt-dominated regions Elsner et al. 2009
47 Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet Summary of flooding impactsRain Dominant Basins:Possible increases in flooding due to increased precipitation variability, but no significant change from warming alone.Mixed Rain and Snow Basins Along the Coast:Strong increases due to warming and increased precipitation variability (both effects increase flood risk)Inland Snowmelt Dominant Basins:Relatively small overall changes because effects of warming (decreased risks) and increased precipitation variability (increased risks) are in the opposite directions.Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet