1. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk Jodh Dhesi Deputy Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk Linear GCSE Exams and predicted grades A facilitated discussion to explore the impact on learners and their support needs

2. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk -Deputy Principal (Teaching and Learning) -Head of Sixth Form -Yr 11 tutor

3. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk Discussion Point The impact that linear GCSEs will have on the predicted grades which are used for post 16 applications. What are your concerns?

4. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk The Art of Prediction: student self-prediction Just over 50% of predictions were accurate and students were much more likely to over-predict than to under-predict. Most errors of prediction were only one grade out. Higher levels of attainment, both actual and predicted, were strongly associated with positive attitudes to university. Differences between predictions and results are likely to reflect examination errors as well as pupil errors. The accuracy of students’ predictions of their GCSE grades: Attwood, Croll, Fuller, Last

5. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk The Art of Prediction: individual teacher prediction Among A level UCAS predictions 51.74% of all predictions were accurate Only 6.59% of predicted grades were under- predicted Investigating Accuracy Predicted A-level grades: gov.uk

6. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk Discussion Point How accurate do you think your predictions are currently? Do you measure the accuracy of your predictions currently? Are there any variations in prediction accuracy among your faculties and/or teachers?

7. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk The Art of Prediction: successes Schools have developed "highly sophisticated grade prediction and tracking mechanisms" which, prior to summer 2012, had proved highly accurate in predicting grades for GCSE English Schools are "extremely strategic" in the way they allocate resource and prepare young people for exams, employing sophisticated prediction processes. Many teachers consider the ability to predict grades accurately to be "a fundamental part of their role as a professional http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmeduc/ 204/20407.htm

8. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk Discussion Point Other than the difficulty of prediction in itself (50% accuracy rate) and variations within schools, what are the new issues facing us?

9. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk The Art of Prediction: grade boundaries When asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement "I have confidence in the accuracy of the marking of GCSEs", 24% of the 203 headteachers and 16% of the 600 teachers said they strongly disagreed Just a third of heads, 34%, were confident in the accuracy of the marking Some 14% of each group strongly disagreed with the statement "I have confidence in the GCSE system". http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/may/03/headteachers- gcse-inaccuracy-fears

10. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk The Art of Prediction: examination changes This year Michael Gove confirmed that, from 2015, pupils would sit exams at the end of their GCSEs, rather than take modular tests that count towards their final mark over the course of the two-year qualification He promised there would be "fewer bite-sized and overly structured questions and a reduced role for coursework" http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/may/03/headteachers- gcse-inaccuracy-fears

11. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk Discussion Point What can schools do to deal with these developments? What can sixth form centres do?

12. Andrew Hutchinson OBE Executive Principal Website www.parksidefederation.org.uk The Art of Prediction: possible solutions regular internal assessments – not just mock exams real papers moderation, internal and external understanding on the part of sixth form colleges