Presentation on theme: "Welcome to the AMAZALERT May 2014 workshop! a.Reduced uncertainty / higher accuracy in predictions of possible Amazon dieback b.Link policies, scenarios,"— Presentation transcript:
a.Reduced uncertainty / higher accuracy in predictions of possible Amazon dieback b.Link policies, scenarios, land-use change, climate/ecosystem functioning and finally impact on the Amazon ecosystem services in one clear set of story lines c.Develop a comprehensive blueprint for an Early Warning System, focusing maybe less on strict ‘tipping points’ and more on broader issues of degradation
Coupled Atmosphere-Land surface Analyse and new ESM results DGVMs test urgent issues rivers Coupled LUC People Scenario analysis Policy analysis Land-use change model Blue-print Early-Warning System Critical Ecosystem Services
How? Day 1: present ideas Day 2: discuss in groups Day 3: present first drafts Day 4: parallel work Day 5: final drafts and further issues
Links or clashes with deliverables? I see no clashes Lots of links There may be some additional work Please investigate in your groups how deliverables could be extracted from the three ‘main products’ and where not.
Proposed papers Theme 1 rough draft 1 – climate /coupled - Richard, Gilvan 2 - Regional Lincoln, Marengo 3 – analysis of vegetation in response to climate forcing David 4 - Conceptual Hans, Hannes, Brad (synthesis Moore project, LBA MIP) Focus on common output/ES – C budget – Water recycling index – Dry season length as cross-cutting theme Cross-cutting process - improved models&comparing – make use of field work Uncertainty at range of spatial and time scale