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The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) www.isi-mip.org Coordination team: Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Franziska Piontek,

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Presentation on theme: "The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) www.isi-mip.org Coordination team: Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Franziska Piontek,"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) Coordination team: Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Franziska Piontek, Jacob Schewe, Olivia Serdeczny, Lila Warszawski ISI-MIP CGE workshop, 18/19 September 2013

2 Leading Questions Why should we pay a lot of money for achieving a 2°C instead of 3°C world? How good are we at telling the difference between a 2°C and a 3°C world ? What are the related uncertainties? Are there essential deficiencies in our process understanding or the way proccesses are represented in impact models?

3 Global Mean Annual Temperature Change Relative to °C Current Situation in Impact Knowledge... IPCC AR4, WGII, Table 20.8

4 What Is the ISI-MIP Fast Track? Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming RCP climate projections Global: CMIP5 Socio-economic input SSP population and GDP Agriculture Water Biomes Health (Malaria) (Coastal infrastructure) Multiple climate models & latest socio-economics (no further harmonization!) Multiple global impact models per sector + Fast track contribution to AR5 = >30 models, 11 countries 5 GCMs, 4 RCPs each >20 papers PNAS Special Feature Public ISI-MIP database

5 CMIP3/CMIP5 model genealogy Input Data & Setup: Choice of GCMs GCMs chosen for ISI-MIP Fast Track (based on 2 criteria: variable availability and predicted T and P): HadGEM2-ES MIROC-ESM-CHEM IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM-2M NorESM1-M Knutti et al GRL

6 Input Data & Setup: Temperature Projections Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted „Present-day“:

7 Input Data & Setup: Climate Dataset and Bias Correction *Bias-corrected Hempel et al. ESDD, 4, 49-92, 2013: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach. Climate variables provided: Surface air temperatures (Tavg, Tmin, Tmax)* Precipitation* Surface radiation (short- and longwave downwelling)* Near-surface wind speed (east- and north-ward)* Near-surface wind speed (total)* Surface air pressure* Near-surface relative humidity* CO 2 concentration

8 Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Temperature Projections Difference in bias–corrected, average surface air temperature between end of the century ( ) and present-day ( ) under RCP8.5 Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

9 Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Projections Difference in bias–corrected, average annual rainfall between end of the century ( ) and present-day ( ) under RCP8.5 Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

10 9 water models: VIC, H08, WaterGAP, MacPDM, WBM, MPI-HM, PCR- GLOBWB, DBH, MATSIRO 5 biomes models: Hybrid, Sheffield DGVM, JeDi, ANTHRO-BGC, VISIT 8+2 agriculture models: GEPIC, EPIC, pDSSAT, DAYCENT, IMAGE, PEGASUS, LPJ-GUESS, MCWLA + MAgPIE, GLOBIOM,... 3 cross-sectoral models: LPJmL, ORCHIDEE, JULES 5 health models (= malaria): MIASMA, MARA, VECTRI, WHO CCRA Malaria, LMM coastal infrastructure model: DIVA Collaboration with Participating Models in ISI-MIP Fast Track: 5 Sectors, > 30 Models, 11 Countries

11 ISI-MIP Scenarios and Run Priorities

12 ISI-MIP Longer-Term Perspective… Integration of regional models and new sectors... Establishment of a continuous process 5/2013 Impacts World 2013 Conference

13 What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track? Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming Model development and improvement Cross-sectoral interactions Impact emulators Focus topic: extreme events... RCP climate projections Global: CMIP5 Regional: CORDEX Socio-economic input SSP population and GDP Agriculture, water, biomes, health, (coastal infrastructure) NEW sectors: permafrost, marine ecosystems and carbon cycle, forestry,... Multiple climate models + = Fast track contribution to AR5 Multiple global & regional impact models per sector Regular, consistent, and quantitative assessment of climate impacts Additional input data: e.g., historical data

14 What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track?

15 ISI-MIP2 Economic Integration Unit ? Damage costs $ $ Economic modeller? Biophysical modeller?

16 ISI-MIP Input for CGE Models SectorVariable (scenario) Suggested linking methodComments AgricultureYield change (CO2_default) Water Coastal Infra- structure [...]

17 Suggested CGE Model Output Variables Output variableRequired harmonization? Comments GDP change (%) Welfare change (%) Trade effects ? [...]


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