1. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) www.isi-mip.org Coordination team: Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Franziska Piontek, Jacob Schewe, Olivia Serdeczny, Lila Warszawski ISI-MIP CGE workshop, 18/19 September 2013

2. Leading Questions Why should we pay a lot of money for achieving a 2°C instead of 3°C world? How good are we at telling the difference between a 2°C and a 3°C world ? What are the related uncertainties? Are there essential deficiencies in our process understanding or the way proccesses are represented in impact models?

3. Global Mean Annual Temperature Change Relative to 1980-1999 102345°C Current Situation in Impact Knowledge... IPCC AR4, WGII, Table 20.8

4. What Is the ISI-MIP Fast Track? Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming RCP climate projections Global: CMIP5 Socio-economic input SSP population and GDP Agriculture Water Biomes Health (Malaria) (Coastal infrastructure) Multiple climate models & latest socio-economics (no further harmonization!) Multiple global impact models per sector + Fast track contribution to AR5 = >30 models, 11 countries 5 GCMs, 4 RCPs each >20 papers PNAS Special Feature Public ISI-MIP database

5. CMIP3/CMIP5 model genealogy Input Data & Setup: Choice of GCMs GCMs chosen for ISI-MIP Fast Track (based on 2 criteria: variable availability and predicted T and P): HadGEM2-ES MIROC-ESM-CHEM IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM-2M NorESM1-M Knutti et al. 2013 GRL

6. Input Data & Setup: Temperature Projections Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted „Present-day“: 1980-2010

7. Input Data & Setup: Climate Dataset and Bias Correction *Bias-corrected Hempel et al. ESDD, 4, 49-92, 2013: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach. Climate variables provided: Surface air temperatures (Tavg, Tmin, Tmax)* Precipitation* Surface radiation (short- and longwave downwelling)* Near-surface wind speed (east- and north-ward)* Near-surface wind speed (total)* Surface air pressure* Near-surface relative humidity* CO 2 concentration

8. Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Temperature Projections Difference in bias–corrected, average surface air temperature between end of the century (2070-2099) and present-day (1980-2010) under RCP8.5 Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

9. Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Projections Difference in bias–corrected, average annual rainfall between end of the century (2070-2099) and present-day (1980-2010) under RCP8.5 Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

10. 9 water models: VIC, H08, WaterGAP, MacPDM, WBM, MPI-HM, PCR- GLOBWB, DBH, MATSIRO 5 biomes models: Hybrid, Sheffield DGVM, JeDi, ANTHRO-BGC, VISIT 8+2 agriculture models: GEPIC, EPIC, pDSSAT, DAYCENT, IMAGE, PEGASUS, LPJ-GUESS, MCWLA + MAgPIE, GLOBIOM,... 3 cross-sectoral models: LPJmL, ORCHIDEE, JULES 5 health models (= malaria): MIASMA, MARA, VECTRI, WHO CCRA Malaria, LMM 2005 1 coastal infrastructure model: DIVA Collaboration with Participating Models in ISI-MIP Fast Track: 5 Sectors, > 30 Models, 11 Countries

11. ISI-MIP Scenarios and Run Priorities

12. ISI-MIP Longer-Term Perspective… 12... Integration of regional models and new sectors... Establishment of a continuous process 5/2013 Impacts World 2013 Conference

13. What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track? Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming Model development and improvement Cross-sectoral interactions Impact emulators Focus topic: extreme events... RCP climate projections Global: CMIP5 Regional: CORDEX Socio-economic input SSP population and GDP Agriculture, water, biomes, health, (coastal infrastructure) NEW sectors: permafrost, marine ecosystems and carbon cycle, forestry,... Multiple climate models + = Fast track contribution to AR5 Multiple global & regional impact models per sector Regular, consistent, and quantitative assessment of climate impacts Additional input data: e.g., historical data

14. What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track?

15. ISI-MIP2 Economic Integration Unit ? Damage costs $ $ Economic modeller? Biophysical modeller?

16. ISI-MIP Input for CGE Models SectorVariable (scenario) Suggested linking methodComments AgricultureYield change (CO2_default) Water Coastal Infra- structure [...]

17. Suggested CGE Model Output Variables Output variableRequired harmonization? Comments GDP change (%) Welfare change (%) Trade effects ? [...]