4Services and Facilities, PMD provides Public weather serviceAviation MeteorologyHydrology/flood forecastAgrometeorologyDroughtSeismology and Tsunami early warningMarine & cyclone warning
5PMD’s Infrastructure for Monitoring the Weather Satellite Ground StationsHRPT1- Islamabad2- QuettaFY-2 E/D1- Islamabad2. KarachiPMD has 4 Satellite ground stations:2 HRPT systems installed at Islamabad and Quetta.2 Chinese ground satellite stations, working at Islamabad and Karachi.
6Radar’s Network 10-cm Doppler Radars QPM Radar 1- Lahore2- ManglaQPM Radar1- Sialkot5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars1- Islamabad2- D.I.Khan3- Rahim Yar Khan4- KarachiPMD has 7 Radars, in operation at different parts of Pakistan, which cover almost 80% area of Pakistan.6 new Radars provision is under progress which are expected to complete within a year or so.
7PMD- HRM Forecast Products Numerical WeatherProductsRainTempsWindsBased on DATA, TECHNIQUE and SKILL, the Numerical Weather products like Precipitation, Temperatures and Winds are generated twice a day with a validity of next 1 – 7 Days. All such products are available on PMD website,
8PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet Message Under the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) PMD prepares and issues the marine safety message for MetArea-IX.Message passed daily at 0700UTC via telnet to LES Perth, Australia for onward transmission to ships via INMARSAT.Met Area-IX mapOf Indian Ocean fleet forecast areas the PMD is responsible for the areas B00, B30, B25 and B20.Karachi coastal radio (ASK, NAVETAX), covering the Arabian Sea north of 20oN, Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, broadcasts it at 518KHz at 0630 and 1830 UTC.
9PMD – fleet forecastMORNING FLEET FORECAST GENERAL INFERENCE, DATED ----, ---- Weather: Fair with hazy morning B00, B30, B25 and B20. AREA FORECAST VALID FOR 12 HOURS COMMENCING -- / 0700 U.T.CAreaWeatherSurface WindState of SeaSwellPeriodVisibilityB00Fair with misty morningNW’ly08-10 KtsSlightm2-3 Sec* Good may be poor in mist.B30Fair with misty morning.05-07 KtsSmooth0.1-.5mDoB25Fair with hazy morningE/SE’ly03-05 Kts north 24N & SW 5-7Kts B/W 21-24N.m* Good may be moderate in haze.B20SE’ly05-10 KtsSmooth/slight2 Sec
10PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet message for MetArea-IX TOINMARSAT COASTAL EARTH STATION (CES) +PERTH AUSTRALIA.SECURITEMARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR METAREA-IX VALID FOR24 HOURS COMMENCING 0700UTC DATED BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT.PART -I: Morning satellite imagery shows intense convective clouds over the East Arabian Sea.PART - II: NO ALERT MESSAGEPART –III: FORECASTS:SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEAI. WIND NE/SW KTS LOCALLY 15 KTS EAST OF 65E AND N/NW KTS WEST OF 65E.II. WEATHER FAIR WITH MISTY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN MIST.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMANI. WIND E/SE KTS NORTH OF 24N, SW KTS SOUTH OF 24N.II. WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH.SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)I. WIND N KTS GUST 20KTS EAST OF 60E BEC.II WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING EAST OF 65E.III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.SUB AREA NO GULF OF ADENI. WIND E/NE KTS GUST 15 KTS WEST OF 50E.II WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.
11Forecast and Warning Services Forecast and warning services’ delivery for emergency preparedness and response:Current warnings system,Challenges,Pressures andConcerns
12PMD – Severe Weather Warning System PMD’s Current Warning System:
13Potential Extreme Weather Events Pakistan is vulnerable to Snow-melt FloodingExtreme Heat in May/JuneHeavy Rains/River FloodingExtreme Rainfall (Monsoon)Torrential Rain/Flash FloodingExtreme Rainfall (Monsoon)Urban FloodingExtreme Rainfall (Monsoon)Cyclones/Coastal FloodingTropical Cyclones (Pre & Post Monsoon)Water Crises/DroughtsDry Spell (Deficient Monsoon/Winter rain)
14Information FlowNational Weather Forecasting Office, Islamabad and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, KarachiNDMA/PDMAs/DDMAsDistrict/local GovtsCBOsMedia/print & electronicNGOsPNHigh Govt officialsKPTN(P/D)DMA- National/Provincial/District Disaster Management Authority,KPT – Karachi Port Trust, PN – Pakistan Navy, CBOs- Community Based Organizations
15Message Dissemination SMS messengerNational Mititation AgenciesFax to National AgenciesForecasterProvincials Mititation AgenciesFax to Provincial AuthoritiesFax to MediaPrint and Electronic MediaData DisseminationFacsimile
16Meteorological Advisories Meteorological watch (7 – 10 days earlier)Issued to give a synopsis of the actual (real time) existing weather situation around PakistanMeteorological alert (5 – 7 days earlier)Issued to make the authorities and public informed of the developing weather viz likely to affect any area of PakistanMeteorological advisory (3 – 5 days earlier)Issued when developing weather is quiet certain to approach Pakistan areas and the Govt authorities are alerted.Meteorological warningIssued when there is a certainty of violent weather occurrence over Pakistan areas.
17Distribution of Rainfall Fairly Widespread- Covering almost 100% AreaWidespread- Covering nearly 75% AreaScattered- Covering nearly 50% AreaIsolated- Covering less than 50% AreaFew- Covering less than 25% Area
18Probability of rainfall occurrence and intensity Probability Of OccurrenceTerminology<25%Could Occur26-50%May Occur51-75%Would Occur76-100%Will OccurRainfall Intensity termsQuantity (mm)Very heavy89 or moreHeavyRather heavy22.4 – 44.4Moderate9.7 – 22.3Light rainVery light rain2.5 – 4.5Little rain0.3 – 2.4
19Weather Advisories - August, 2011 Date: August 03, 2011Time: 1600 PSTPress ReleaseMonsoon Rains Predicted in Upper Parts of the CountryMet Office predicted another spell of monsoon rains in upper parts of the country from Thursday that may produce scattered Rains/Thundershowers during next 3-4 days. Later on this weather system is likely to spread to other parts of the country.According to Met Office, scattered Rain/Thundershower is expected in Kashmir, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Peshawar, Malakand, Hazara, and Kohat divisions during next 2-3 days. While weather is likely to remain hot and humid in rest of the country during the period.After wards more monsoon currents are likely to penetrate in parts of the country from Saturday that would produce scattered Rain/Thundershowers, with isolated heavy falls in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir from Saturday to Tuesday.Spokesman
21PMD – Cyclone Warning System 10 AWSs installed along Sindh-Makran coastOther than AWS four coastal surface observing stations, Karachi, Ormara, Pasni and Gwadar also work round-the-clock
22PMD – Cyclone Warning System PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi is responsible for the preparation and issuance of tropical cyclone warnings in Pakistan.Tracking of the tropical cyclonesDone with the help ofConventional surface and upper-air observations from inland stations and ship observations.Model outputs and guidance from the global tropical cyclones warning centres.The High-resolution Regional Model (HRM) implemented at PMD.5cm Weather surveillance radar installed at Karachi.Meteorological satellites’ output and data.AWSs installed along Sindh and Makran coast.SODAR – the vertical wind profiler- with RASS installed at Karachi.RadioSonde ground station installed at Karachi.
23PMD – Cyclone Warning System Cyclone warning centre doesspot on any cyclonic disturbance in the Arabian Sea by close and careful analysis of synoptic weather maps and satellite imageryassess its potential of conversion into a cycloneissue the pre-warning advisory 7 days earlier to cyclone formation (say, when a low/depression forms at around Lat 10N near west Indian coast)issue “Tropical Cyclone Warning” containing cyclone current location (Lat/Long), past 3/6hr movement, CEP, maximum sustained winds, intensity and likely track with 3-4 days lead timewarning of cyclone also contains the risk of “disaster / damages due to windstorm, torrential rains & storm surge which might result in inundation/ coastal flooding, uprooting of trees, demolition of electric installations, failure of infrastructure, tearing away of Kutcha houses and collapse of buildings especially loosely structured”observe closely and monitor every hour /3hr it’s central estimated Pressure (CEP), winds, lower & upper-air anticyclone/ steering factor andtrack it with careful watch and issue update/ warning every 3/6-hrs accordingly.
24PMD – Cyclone Warning System (cyclone detection at surface wx map) Surface weather maps depicting the Low, depression and Cyclone. For tracking of cyclone this synoptic situation is corroborated with upper-air analysis, satellite imageries and information from RSMC, Delhi cyclone bulletin.
25Cyclone Terminologies used Effects during LandfallCorresponding Wind SpeedPressure (hpa)Disturbance typeGusty winds and damages detaching fruit from the trees22 – 27 Kts>=996DepressionNegligible damages to houses, trees, some crops and caravan.28 – 33 KtsDeep DepressionMinor house damage, significant damage to signboards, trees and small crafts.34 – 47 KtsCyclonic StormSome roof and structural damage, destruction of some caravans and power failure48 – 63 KtsSevere Cyclonic StormSignificant structural damage, caravans blown away & dangerous air born debris64 – 119 KtsVery Severe Cyclonic StormWidespread destructions, uprooting trees>= 120 Kts<=929Super Cyclonic Storm
26PMD – Cyclone Warning System: A specific case of “PHET”
30Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System Challenges, Pressures and Concerns:Challenges:First and foremost is the forecast accuracy and area-specificity and precision of warning.Translation of message (warning) severity into grass-root public level.Making people 100% realize of the actual gravity of looming danger.Local people language, social customs and traditions sometimes pose a challenge too.Met terminologies particularly getting across the message down to the village-level people.Lack of proper resources in meeting the challenge.………..
31Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.) Pressures:Pressure from within…………..is your forecast/ warning (specially the evacuation warning) going to be right/wrong leading to shatter the public confidence?Pressure from media to get “unscheduled” updates/latest just to make it a breaking news and lead the competitors.………..
32Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.) Concerns:Lack of resources (human - adequately trained or not, infrastructure and work environment etc.).Capacity building in NMHSs.Concerns = challenges + pressures……….
33Accessibility of Weather Advisories PMD wx warning centres- contacts’ detailsFlood Forecasting Division,National Weather Forecasting Centre,Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, ,Tsunami Warning Centre