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Training Workshop - Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Macao, China, 15-19 April 2013 Sardar Sarfaraz Regional Met Centre, PMD, Karachi

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Presentation on theme: "Training Workshop - Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Macao, China, 15-19 April 2013 Sardar Sarfaraz Regional Met Centre, PMD, Karachi"— Presentation transcript:

1 Training Workshop - Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Macao, China, April 2013 Sardar Sarfaraz Regional Met Centre, PMD, Karachi

2 Brief Introduction of Pakistan Meteorological Department Pakistan Meteorological Department Secretary: Ministry of Defence Director General Chief Meteorologist ForecastingFloodDrought - AgrometSeismicResearch Chief Meteorologist Chief Admin Officer 2 - DIRECTORS3 - DIRECTORS2 - DIRECTORS3 - DIRECTORS6 - DIRECTORS 20 - Dy. Directors3 - Dy. Directors

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4 Aviation Meteorology SERVICES Hydrology/flood forecast Agrometeorology Drought Seismology and Tsunami early warning Services and Facilities, PMD provides Marine & cyclone warning Public weather service

5 PMD’s Infrastructure for Monitoring the Weather HRPT 1- Islamabad 2- Quetta FY-2 E/D 1- Islamabad 2. Karachi PMD has 4 Satellite ground stations: 2 HRPT systems installed at Islamabad and Quetta. 2 Chinese ground satellite stations, working at Islamabad and Karachi. Satellite Ground Stations

6 Radar’s Network 10-cm Doppler Radars 1- Lahore 2- Mangla QPM Radar 1- Sialkot 5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars 1- Islamabad 2- D.I.Khan 3- Rahim Yar Khan 4- Karachi PMD has 7 Radars, in operation at different parts of Pakistan, which cover almost 80% area of Pakistan. 6 new Radars provision is under progress which are expected to complete within a year or so.

7 Rain Temps Winds PMD- HRM Forecast Products Numerical Weather Products Based on DATA, TECHNIQUE and SKILL, the Numerical Weather products like Precipitation, Temperatures and Winds are generated twice a day with a validity of next 1 – 7 Days. All such products are available on PMD website,

8 PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet Message Under the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) PMD prepares and issues the marine safety message for MetArea-IX. Message passed daily at 0700UTC via telnet to LES Perth, Australia for onward transmission to ships via INMARSAT. Met Area-IX map Karachi coastal radio (ASK, NAVETAX), covering the Arabian Sea north of 20 o N, Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, broadcasts it at 518KHz at 0630 and 1830 UTC. Of Indian Ocean fleet forecast areas the PMD is responsible for the areas B 00, B 30, B 25 and B 20.

9 PMD – fleet forecast MORNING FLEET FORECAST GENERAL INFERENCE, DATED ----, ---- Weather: Fair with hazy morning B00, B30, B25 and B20. AREA FORECAST VALID FOR 12 HOURS COMMENCING -- / 0700 U.T.C Area WeatherSurface WindState of SeaSwellPeriodVisibility B00 Fair with misty morning NW’ly KtsSlight m2-3 Sec * Good may be poor in mist. B30 Fair with misty morning. NW’ly KtsSmooth0.1-.5mDo * Good may be poor in mist. B25 Fair with hazy morning E/SE’ly Kts north 24N & SW 5-7Kts B/W 21-24N. Smooth mDo * Good may be moderate in haze. B20 Fair with hazy morning SE’ly Kts Smooth/slight m2 Sec * Good may be moderate in haze.

10 PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet message for MetArea-IX TO INMARSAT COASTAL EARTH STATION (CES) + PERTH AUSTRALIA. SECURITE MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR METAREA-IX VALID FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 0700UTC DATED BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT. PART -I:Morning satellite imagery shows intense convective clouds over the East Arabian Sea. PART - II:NO ALERT MESSAGE PART –III: FORECASTS: SUB AREA NO.1NORTH ARABIAN SEA I.WIND NE/SW KTS LOCALLY 15 KTS EAST OF 65E AND N/NW KTS WEST OF 65E. II.WEATHER FAIR WITH MISTY MORNING. III.VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN MIST. IV.STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT. SUB AREA NO. 2GULF OF OMAN I.WINDE/SE KTS NORTH OF 24N, SW KTS SOUTH OF 24N. II.WEATHERFAIR WITH HAZY MORNING. III.VISIBILITYGOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE. IV.STATE OF SEASMOOTH. SUB AREA NO. 3CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE) I.WINDN KTS GUST 20KTS EAST OF 60E BEC. IIWEATHERPARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING EAST OF 65E. III.VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE. IV.STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT. SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN I. WINDE/NE KTS GUST 15 KTS WEST OF 50E. IIWEATHERFAIR WITH HAZY MORNING. III.VISIBILITYGOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE. IV.STATE OF SEASMOOTH/SLIGHT.

11 Forecast and Warning Services Forecast and warning services’ delivery for emergency preparedness and response: Current warnings system, Challenges, Pressures and Concerns

12 PMD – Severe Weather Warning System PMD’s Current Warning System:

13 Snow-melt Flooding Heavy Rains/River Flooding Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding Cyclones/Coastal Flooding Urban Flooding Water Crises/Droughts Extreme Heat in May/June Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon) Tropical Cyclones (Pre & Post Monsoon) Dry Spell (Deficient Monsoon/Winter rain) Potential Extreme Weather Events Pakistan is vulnerable to

14 National Weather Forecasting Office, Islamabad and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi NDMA/PDMAs/ DDMAs District/local GovtsCBOs Media/print & electronic NGOs High Govt officials KPT PN Information Flow N(P/D)DMA- National/Provincial/District Disaster Management Authority, KPT – Karachi Port Trust, PN – Pakistan Navy, CBOs- Community Based Organizations

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16 Meteorological Advisories  Meteorological watch (7 – 10 days earlier) Issued to give a synopsis of the actual (real time) existing weather situation around Pakistan  Meteorological alert (5 – 7 days earlier) Issued to make the authorities and public informed of the developing weather viz likely to affect any area of Pakistan  Meteorological advisory (3 – 5 days earlier) Issued when developing weather is quiet certain to approach Pakistan areas and the Govt authorities are alerted.  Meteorological warning Issued when there is a certainty of violent weather occurrence over Pakistan areas.

17 Distribution of Rainfall Fairly Widespread- Covering almost 100% Area Widespread- Covering nearly 75% Area Scattered- Covering nearly 50% Area Isolated- Covering less than 50% Area Few- Covering less than 25% Area

18 Probability of rainfall occurrence and intensity Probability Of Occurrence Terminology <25%Could Occur 26-50%May Occur 51-75%Would Occur %Will Occur Rainfall Intensity terms Quantity (mm) Very heavy89 or more Heavy Rather heavy22.4 – 44.4 Moderate9.7 – 22.3 Light rain Very light rain2.5 – 4.5 Little rain0.3 – 2.4

19 Date: August 03, 2011 Time: 1600 PST Press Release Monsoon Rains Predicted in Upper Parts of the Country Met Office predicted another spell of monsoon rains in upper parts of the country from Thursday that may produce scattered Rains/Thundershowers during next 3- 4 days. Later on this weather system is likely to spread to other parts of the country. According to Met Office, scattered Rain/Thundershower is expected in Kashmir, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Peshawar, Malakand, Hazara, and Kohat divisions during next 2-3 days. While weather is likely to remain hot and humid in rest of the country during the period. After wards more monsoon currents are likely to penetrate in parts of the country from Saturday that would produce scattered Rain/Thundershowers, with isolated heavy falls in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir from Saturday to Tuesday. Spokesman Weather Advisories - August, 2011

20 Weather Advisory (recent one)

21 PMD – Cyclone Warning System 10 AWSs installed along Sindh-Makran coast Other than AWS four coastal surface observing stations, Karachi, Ormara, Pasni and Gwadar also work round-the-clock

22 PMD – Cyclone Warning System PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi is responsible for the preparation and issuance of tropical cyclone warnings in Pakistan. Tracking of the tropical cyclones Done with the help of 1.Conventional surface and upper-air observations from inland stations and ship observations. 2.Model outputs and guidance from the global tropical cyclones warning centres. 3.The High-resolution Regional Model (HRM) implemented at PMD. 4.5cm Weather surveillance radar installed at Karachi. 5.Meteorological satellites’ output and data. 6.AWSs installed along Sindh and Makran coast. 7.SODAR – the vertical wind profiler- with RASS installed at Karachi. 8.RadioSonde ground station installed at Karachi.

23 PMD – Cyclone Warning System Cyclone warning centre does spot on any cyclonic disturbance in the Arabian Sea by close and careful analysis of synoptic weather maps and satellite imagery assess its potential of conversion into a cyclone issue the pre-warning advisory 7 days earlier to cyclone formation (say, when a low/depression forms at around Lat 10N near west Indian coast) issue “Tropical Cyclone Warning” containing cyclone current location (Lat/Long), past 3/6hr movement, CEP, maximum sustained winds, intensity and likely track with 3-4 days lead time warning of cyclone also contains the risk of “disaster / damages due to windstorm, torrential rains & storm surge which might result in inundation/ coastal flooding, uprooting of trees, demolition of electric installations, failure of infrastructure, tearing away of Kutcha houses and collapse of buildings especially loosely structured” observe closely and monitor every hour /3hr it’s central estimated Pressure (CEP), winds, lower & upper-air anticyclone/ steering factor and track it with careful watch and issue update/ warning every 3/6-hrs accordingly.

24 PMD – Cyclone Warning System (cyclone detection at surface wx map) Surface weather maps depicting the Low, depression and Cyclone. For tracking of cyclone this synoptic situation is corroborated with upper-air analysis, satellite imageries and information from RSMC, Delhi cyclone bulletin.

25 Cyclone Terminologies used Effects during LandfallCorresponding Wind Speed Pressure (hpa)Disturbance type Gusty winds and damages detaching fruit from the trees 22 – 27 Kts>=996Depression Negligible damages to houses, trees, some crops and caravan. 28 – 33 Kts Deep Depression Minor house damage, significant damage to signboards, trees and small crafts. 34 – 47 Kts Cyclonic Storm Some roof and structural damage, destruction of some caravans and power failure 48 – 63 Kts Severe Cyclonic Storm Significant structural damage, caravans blown away & dangerous air born debris 64 – 119 Kts Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Widespread destructions, uprooting trees >= 120 Kts<=929Super Cyclonic Storm

26 PMD – Cyclone Warning System: A specific case of “PHET”

27 Cyclone warning system - PHET (contd.)

28 Cyclone Warning System-PHET (contd.)

29 Weather Services for MOUNTAINEERING

30 Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System Challenges, Pressures and Concerns:  Challenges: 1.First and foremost is the forecast accuracy and area- specificity and precision of warning. 2.Translation of message (warning) severity into grass-root public level. 3.Making people 100% realize of the actual gravity of looming danger. 4.Local people language, social customs and traditions sometimes pose a challenge too. 5.Met terminologies particularly getting across the message down to the village-level people. 6.Lack of proper resources in meeting the challenge. ………..

31 Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)  Pressures: 1.Pressure from within…………..is your forecast/ warning (specially the evacuation warning) going to be right/wrong leading to shatter the public confidence? 2.Pressure from media to get “unscheduled” updates/latest just to make it a breaking news and lead the competitors. ………..

32 Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)  Concerns: 1.Lack of resources (human - adequately trained or not, infrastructure and work environment etc.). 2.Capacity building in NMHSs. 3.Concerns = challenges + pressures ……….

33 Flood Forecasting Division National Weather Forecasting Centre Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Tsunami Warning Centre , , , , Accessibility of Weather Advisories PMD wx warning centres- contacts’ details

34 Cyclone Annimation

35 Thank You


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