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1 Market Briefing “Stocks & Bonds” 16th May 2002 Walter Henniges Managing Director Deutsche Bank Head of Debt Capital Markets Frankfurt.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Market Briefing “Stocks & Bonds” 16th May 2002 Walter Henniges Managing Director Deutsche Bank Head of Debt Capital Markets Frankfurt."— Presentation transcript:

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2 1 Market Briefing “Stocks & Bonds” 16th May 2002 Walter Henniges Managing Director Deutsche Bank Head of Debt Capital Markets Frankfurt

3 2 The Market for Bonds Chapter 1

4 3 The Eurobond Issuance Volume 1997: €uro 301 Mrd.1998: €uro 340 Mrd. 1999: €uro 481 Mrd.2000: €uro 485 Mrd. 2001: €uro 609 Mrd. During the past 5 years the market has gained more liquidity and sophistication on both the issuer’s and investor’s side. During the past 5 years the market has gained more liquidity and sophistication on both the issuer’s and investor’s side. The corportae bond segment has grown most impressively. In 1997 corporate bonds accounted for 5% while the share in 2001 grew to 34% of total issuance. The corportae bond segment has grown most impressively. In 1997 corporate bonds accounted for 5% while the share in 2001 grew to 34% of total issuance. During the past 5 years the market has gained more liquidity and sophistication on both the issuer’s and investor’s side. During the past 5 years the market has gained more liquidity and sophistication on both the issuer’s and investor’s side. The corportae bond segment has grown most impressively. In 1997 corporate bonds accounted for 5% while the share in 2001 grew to 34% of total issuance. The corportae bond segment has grown most impressively. In 1997 corporate bonds accounted for 5% while the share in 2001 grew to 34% of total issuance. Source: Bondware 13 May 2002

5 4 Volume and Currencies Source: Bondware 14 May 2002 Within the last twelve years, the €uro gained the top position for bond issues in the Euromarket, with replacing the former EMU currencies and more than doubling the USD in Within the last twelve years, the €uro gained the top position for bond issues in the Euromarket, with replacing the former EMU currencies and more than doubling the USD in Within the last twelve years, the €uro gained the top position for bond issues in the Euromarket, with replacing the former EMU currencies and more than doubling the USD in Within the last twelve years, the €uro gained the top position for bond issues in the Euromarket, with replacing the former EMU currencies and more than doubling the USD in

6 5 Sector development Source: DB IndexQuant 13 May 2002

7 6 Issuing into the Eurobond markets Source: Bondware 13 May 2002 Eurobond issuance was up 15% in 2001 compared to 2000 The Euro continues to gain market share in the Eurobond market with the Euro gaining six percentage points market share in 2001 compared to 2000 The Euro sector is continuing to expand in terms of its ability to absorb record volumes of issuance and its capacity for a broader range of credits In 2001, the market experienced a record of defaults as a result of poor credit quality and a week economy In 2002, market conditions are influenced by “Enronitis”, Argentinia and last year’s dismal performance in almost every industry sector ytd All Eurobond issuance

8 7 The Market for Euros - by Issuer Nationality Source: Dealogic Bondware *until 31 March

9 8 The Market for Euros - by European Issuer Nationality

10 9 The Market for Euros - by S&P Rating

11 10 Who are the Issuers? In 1996: mainly banks, agencies and sovereigns biggest issuers: EIB, KfW, EBRD, Abbey National, Wells Fargo, Argentinia only a few corporate issuer, as VW, GMAC, GECC, Toyota biggest single issue: United Kingdom: 2 bn USD (equals 1,7 bn €uro) In 2001: biggest portion still banks/finance increasing share of corporate issues, partly to refinance M&A activities multi-billion issues from the telecom/ utility sector; France Telecom, British Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Portugal Telecom, Sogerim, AT&T, DCX, RWE, Fiat, Unilever, Enel, Siemens, etc. biggest single issue: Deutsche Telekom: 4,5 bn €uro

12 11 Investors approach Eurobond InvestorsHow investors value new issuers Examination and approval of the credit, based on: Industry Risk Public Rating Internal Credit Committee Judgement Establishing relative value based on: Similarly rated issues Secondary trading levels of comparable issuers “Liquidity” value of the issue Technical Factors: Maturity, duration and coupon target Current portfolio and redemption views on the underlying benchmark market and outlook for the yield curve

13 12 Debt Capital Instruments Chapter 2

14 13 Finance Instruments (overview) Balance Sheet Fixed assets Shareholder Equity Liabilities Current assets Equity: Ordinary increase of shareholders’ funds Revaluation or increase of assets Equity: Ordinary increase of shareholders’ funds Revaluation or increase of assets Equity linked: Convertible Bond Exchangeable Bond Other forms of Hybrid Capital Equity linked: Convertible Bond Exchangeable Bond Other forms of Hybrid Capital Outside capital: Public Bond Private Placement Commercial Paper Syndicated Loans Bilateral Loans Outside capital: Public Bond Private Placement Commercial Paper Syndicated Loans Bilateral Loans Divestment: Sale of unused assets Divestment: Sale of unused assets Current Assets: Liquid assets Asset Securitisation Current Assets: Liquid assets Asset Securitisation

15 14 Products: the key debt instruments (issuer’s perspective) Commercial Paper Program Debt Issuance Program „Stand Alone“ Documentation Documentation- platform Name Recognition Rating / Rating Advisory / Credit Research „Credit Story“ Bilateral and syndicated Loan / SSD Bilateral and syndicated Loan / SSD Commercial PaperSyndicated Bond Instrument Private Placement/ EMTNs The core product is the public syndicated bond. Bond structures range from a plain vanilla Eurobond to hybrid capital. The core product is the public syndicated bond. Bond structures range from a plain vanilla Eurobond to hybrid capital. The core product is the public syndicated bond. Bond structures range from a plain vanilla Eurobond to hybrid capital. The core product is the public syndicated bond. Bond structures range from a plain vanilla Eurobond to hybrid capital. From the above there is a clear cross selling potential for various OTC-derivative products.

16 15 The role of the bank Bank Investor Issuer Origination Sales Rating Advisory Trading Syndicate Derivatives

17 16 Environment Chapter 3

18 17 Current Trends in the Fixed Income Markets The BASEL II Capital Adequacy Framework will link the capital requirements of a bank to the individual risk of its outstanding loans. Therefore, banks will lift interest margins on international capital markets standards. This will have a deep impact on smaller companies, as bigger companies have already established their market profile with international investors. Credit AAA to A+ to A- BBB+ to BB - Below Unrated Assessment AA- BB - Risk Weights r i 20% 50% 100% 150% 100% in % Deutschland Loans Bonds Germany USA

19 18 ECB’s and Fed’s Rate changes ECBFed While the ECB lowered its interest rates five times since January 2001, the Federal Funds Rates dropped for eleven times since then. Yield Curve - Euro Swap Annual Source: Bloomberg 13 May 2002

20 19 League Tables Chapter 4

21 20 League Tables in 1998 / European Banks are highlighted

22 21 League Tables in 2001 / 2000: European Banks are highlighted

23 22 European Investment Bank (Aaa/AAA) Global EUR 5 billion 4% EARN due January 2007 This issue represented a ground-breaking step for the EIB as is was EIB's first Global issued off its Euro Area Reference Note (EARN) programme EIB’s first fully book built issue EIB’s first issue to utilise the pot syndication method EIB's largest issue ever and the first EIB Euro issue to be immediately traded on EuroMTS. The transaction was carefully prepared and pre-marketed over a two-week period involving investor meetings, conference calls and sales force presentations across Asia, US and Europe. The issue was positioned as the new, current coupon, 5 year surrogate sovereign benchmark filling a gap in AAA supply that had lain open since July. Price guidance was announced soon after the 50 bp rate cut by the ECB on Thursday November 8th at a range of low 20s over the Bund 6% January By the end of book building on November 14th the book was oversubscribed with orders totalling nearly EUR 10 billion. The issue was priced the following day at the tight end of the range at +20bps. Once freed to trade, the bid spread tightened in to bps. The syndicate structure consisted of a 100% pot between the joint leads, with a retention for the co-leads as well as access to a co-lead only ”flexi-pot" of EUR 500 million. This second pot was managed by the EIB alone with additional bonds allocated according to the performance of each bank. Over 300 accounts submitted orders for the paper, with order sizes ranging from less than EUR 1mn to over EUR 500mn. The average allocation for each investor was approximately EUR 25mn. Announcement date: 5 November 2001 Launch date: 14 November 2001 Maturity date: 15 January 2007 Reoffer Spread: 20bps over Bund 6% due January 2007 Joint Lead Managers: BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley Syndicate Group: 6 Senior Co-leads and 10 Co-leads Issue Details Deal Highlights Investor type distribution * Geographical distribution * * Lead managers’ allocations only


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