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Presentation November 26, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the year 2007 - 2008 ending at September 30, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – September 30, 2008) Key.

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Presentation on theme: "Presentation November 26, 2008 Presentation. Key figures of the year 2007 - 2008 ending at September 30, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – September 30, 2008) Key."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presentation November 26, 2008 Presentation

2 Key figures of the year ending at September 30, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – September 30, 2008) Key figures of the year ending at September 30, 2008 (October 1, 2007 – September 30, 2008)

3 2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) % Change SALES (reported) Currency Translation Impact Changes in Consolidation Scope (Korea Ratings) SALES (like-for-like) % % 55.5 (in € millions)2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08) Sales from reported to Like-for-Like

4 Sales by Company (reported) SALES (reported) % FITCH GROUP Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Korea Ratings Fitch Ratings Intercompany Eliminations 28.2% % Algorithmics % (in € millions)2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) % Change 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08)

5 Sales by Company (like-for-like) SALES (like-for-like) % FITCH GROUP Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Korea Ratings Fitch Ratings 21.3% % Algorithmics % % (in € millions) Intercompany Eliminations 2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) % Change 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08)

6 2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) % 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08) % 1USA % % 2UK % % 3South Korea % % 4Germany % % 5Spain % % 6France % % 7Switzerland % % 8Netherlands % % 9Italy % % 10 Mexico % % 79.6%76.8% Sales by Geographic Regions (reported) Total Sales % (reported)

7 From Sales to Recurring Operating Income RECURRING OPERATING INCOME (like-for-like) % Sales (reported) % % Operating Expenses Recurring Operating Income (reported) Currency Translation Impact Changes in Consolidation Scope (Korea Ratings) (in € millions)2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) % Change 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08) - + +

8 Recurring Operating Income by Company (reported) RECURRING OPERATING INCOME (reported) % FITCH GROUP 9.8% % % Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Other (Parent Company & Holdings) Korea Ratings Fitch Ratings % Algorithmics 2.6 (in € millions)2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) % Change 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08)

9 Recurring Operating Income by Company (like-for-like) Operating Margin Rate (ROI / Sales) 30.0% 21.4% 20.0% 27.8% 26.3% Fitch Ratings Level Fitch Group Level Fimalac Consolidation Level RECURRING OPERATING INCOME (like-for-like) % FITCH GROUP 3.7% % % Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings) Korea Ratings Fitch Ratings % Algorithmics 2.6 (in € millions)2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) % Change 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08) Other (Parent Company & Holdings) %

10 From Recurring Operating Income to Operating Result (reported) OPERATING RESULT (reported) Recurring Operating Income (reported) Other Operating Income & Expense (in € millions)2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08)

11 From Operating Result to Net Earnings (reported) NET EARNINGS Group Share (reported) Operating Result (reported) Net Interest Expense Taxes 0.5 Equity in Net Earnings of Affiliated Companies Minority Interests Other Financial Income / (Expense) (in € millions)2006/2007 (Oct. 06–Sept. 07) 2007/2008 (Oct. 07–Sept. 08)

12 Evolution of Fimalac’s Shareholding including Reserved Treasury Stocks (stock options) Majority Shareholder Treasury Stocks Others 09/30/ % 1.1% 66.3% 6.9% 26.8% 09/30/ % 1.2% 73.6% 2.1% 24.3%

13 Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt) by Company Fitch Group Parent Company & Holdings Net Cash/(Debt) Position (excl. Building) North Colonnade (London Building) /30/ /30/2008 (in € millions)

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15 Group History Group History

16 Group Structure 80%20%

17 Fitch Group Revenue Trend In US $ Mil Note: Includes Korea Ratings as of April 2007

18 In US $ Mil Fitch Group EBITDA Trend

19 In US $ Mil Fitch Group Operating Income Trend

20 Fitch Group Revenue to Operating Income in US$ millions 2006/ /2008% ChangeRevenue % Personnel costs % External expenses % Total charges Total charges % EBITDA % Profit sharing plan Depreciation Intangible assets amortization Operating Income %

21 Financial Highlights (US$ millions) RevenueEBITDA Op Income 06/0707/0806/0707/0806/0707/08 FITCH GROUP % % % Fitch Ratings % % % Korea Ratings Algorithmics % Eliminations Note: Includes Korea Ratings as of April 2007

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23 Evolution of Recent Market Events The credit situation began with declining performance of RMBS and CDOs backed by U.S. subprime residential mortgages The contagion effects of the subprime crisis soon spread to other assets classes, institutions and geographic regions September 2008 marked the beginning of a particularly turbulent period

24 In response, governments around the world have taken actions to shore up the debt capital markets and support the global financial services industry The global financial markets continue to experience an unprecedented level of stress and volatility Illiquidity, price volatility and widening spreads across asset classes are impacting both short-and long-term credit markets Evolution of Recent Market Events

25 Impact on Fitch Key market dynamics impact Fitch in several ways: Constrained debt market activity Evolving credit fundamentals Change in the global regulatory environment

26 Global Debt Issuance Calendar 2008 saw global debt issuance volume significantly decrease For the first 9 months of calendar 2008, debt issuance totaled $3.5 trillion, a 36% decline from the same period last year and the slowest 9 month period since Q08, down 57% over the prior quarter, was the slowest quarter for debt issuance since 2000 Source: Thomson Reuters

27 Debt Issuance: Structured Finance Global structured finance issuance volume totaled $450 billion in calendar 3Q08 YTD Issuance volume through 3Q08 represents an 80% drop in issuance compared to the same period in 2007 Securitizations year-to-date comprise 13% of total global debt issuance, down from 40% from the same period last year Source: Thomson Reuters

28 Debt Issuance: Structured Finance The US structured finance market saw its lowest volumes in 3Q08 since 1995 Year over year, 3Q08 YTD US issuance declined across all asset classes compared to 3Q07 YTD Issuance volumes in the EMEA structured finance market were also impacted 3Q08 YTD issuance down 90% from the same period last year Sources: Thomson Reuters, JPMorgan, Dealogic, Goldman Sachs

29 Debt Issuance: Corporate Finance Investment Grade Source: Thomson Reuters, Dealogic, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Grade Bond Issuance 3Q08 YTD investment grade corporate debt issuance declined 19% year-over-year 3Q08 saw the worst quarter since 2003 Financial institutions have been particularly impacted In the US, financial institutions issuance fell 37% in 3Q08 YTD relative to the prior year Recent government guarantees of bank debt issuance facilitating some issuance A tight credit market and a slowing global economy have also impacted non-financial debt issuance as the cost of debt financing has risen

30 Debt Issuance: Corporate Finance High Yield and Leverage Loans The events of the past several months have added further stress to an already weak speculative grade market In 3Q08 YTD, Europe saw no high yield bond issuance while US high yield bond issuance was down 44% versus 3Q07 YTD US and European leveraged loan issuance volume declined 57% and 69%, respectively, in calendar 3Q08 YTD as compared with the same period last year US High Yield and Loan Volumes ($B) Sources: Fitch Ratings, European High Yield Association European High Yield and Loan Volumes (€B)

31 Ratings Activity: Structured Finance During 2008, credit rating downgrades exceeded rating upgrades, a reflection of the level of deterioration in structured finance The areas most impacted by downgrades include: US RMBS, primarily the subprime and Alt-A vintages US and European CDOs, due to poor performance of underlying collateral European CMBS and RMBS, although on a smaller scale, resulting from deteriorating collateral Downgrades impacting mostly junior tranches

32 Ratings Activity: European Structured Finance As demonstrated by rating activity in EMEA, downgrades have exceeded upgrades in recent quarters CDOs most heavily impacted

33 Ratings Activity: Financial Institutions Credit quality among financial institutions shifted in 2008 Rating actions increased as the crisis intensified in Q3 However, many financial institutions have benefited from government intervention Financial institutions generally remain highly rated- normally in the ‘AA’ or ‘A’ categories

34 Ratings Activity: Non-Financial Corporates Ratings Activity: Non-Financial Corporates A weakening global economy and instability in the capital markets has also affected non-financial corporate issuers Although there was an increasing number of downgrades in 2008, rating activity was more balanced than in structured finance and financial institutions

35 Fitch Credit Initiatives As market conditions unfolded, Fitch has focused on ensuring the quality and appropriateness of its credit analytics Fitch has also been keenly focused on finding the right balance in our ratings Examples of recent credit initiatives: Rating outlooks for U.S. Structured Finance On-site reviews of residential loan servicers and originators Projected loss analysis for structured finance CDOs Updated criteria for CDOs exposed to corporate debt and structured finance Updated criteria for bank ratings Proposed changes to municipal ratings scale (will reassess in 1Q09)

36 Regulatory Environment – US In response to evolving market conditions, various regulatory bodies have undertaken assessments of the broader financial markets and the specific roles and policies of rating agencies Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Regulatory oversight via the 2006 Credit Rating Agency Reform Act Ongoing assessment of the US ratings industry in 2007 and 2008 Published initial proposals in June 2008; final rules set for December 3 US Congress Several hearings on various markets and industries as a result of market conditions October 2008 hearing on the role of credit rating agencies Additional hearings likely in 2009 Broad-based reassessment of US financial regulatory regime possible

37 Regulatory Environment – EU International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Published a final report containing amendments to its Code of Conduct Fundamentals for Rating Agencies in April 2008 European Commission On November 12, the EC released its proposal outlining new regulatory requirements for rating agencies across the European Union Proposed regulation to be approved by EU Parliament and Council G-20 Summit November 15/16 discussion held in Washington focused on market reforms and financial stability

38 Fitch Solutions Division that consolidates all non-rating products and services, product development, and the firm's product sales force Reinforces and further separates Fitch’s analytical activities from commercial activities Offering a wide range of fixed income content, analytical tools and services Fitch Research Analytics Risk and Performance Pricing and Valuation Structured Finance Surveillance Services Fitch Training

39 Fitch Solutions (continued) Stable, growth-oriented business model Over 1,200 subscribing firms and 8,600 users Subscription-based revenue streams Predictable, recurring revenue Traditionally strong renewal rates Not directly tied to issuance New products and partnerships to meet investors’ need for increased transparency and additional risk measures – E.g., Acquired equity stake in Portsmouth Financial Systems in May 2008; Increased in October 2008 Launched Risk & Performance Analytics Platform in June 2008 Announced partnership with NumeriX, a leading structured credit analytics provider, in November 2008

40 Revenue by Segment (US$ millions) Revenue 2006/ /2008 % change FITCH RATINGS % Structured Finance % Corporate Finance % Subscriptions / Training (Fitch Solutions) % KOREA RATINGS

41 (US$ millions) Revenue 2006/ /2008 % change FITCH RATINGS % North America % EMEA % Latin America % Asia Pacific % KOREA RATINGS Note: The 2006/2007 regional split reflects minor changes in regional reporting from previously reported figures. Revenue by Region

42 Fitch Ratings EBITDA and Operating Income Note: Financials exclude Korea Ratings (in US$ millions) 2006/ /2008% Change Revenue % EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 40.9%40.2% Profit sharing plan Depreciation & Amortization Operating Income % Operating Income Margin 30.6%38.3%

43 Expense Management Fitch continues to focus on managing expenses Headcount-related costs are the largest component of controllable expenses Headcount declined 12% in fiscal 2008 due to natural attrition and planned staff reductions Variable compensation expenses, bonus accruals, and incentive compensation charges have been reduced Careful expense management, balanced with focused investments in areas of continued growth, will provide Fitch with a stable platform to move forward Note: Excludes Korea Ratings. For years , as of Dec 31. For year , as of Sept 30.

44 ConclusionConclusion The entire organization has rallied around the urgency of the credit challenges, aiming to be timely and transparent with our research and ratings The company is striving for balance and perspective while being Responsive to the realities of the market Focused on the quality of our analytical work Transparent in our dealings with key constituencies Disciplined in managing the business Given continued stress in the financial markets and lack of visibility into future debt market activity, we are not offering a revenue outlook for fiscal 2009

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46 Algorithmics Highlights 157 New License Orders ♦ Strong add-on sales and new business 400 Software Solution clients ♦ Continuing expansion into buy-side accounts, and new geographical markets 151 Content and Data clients ♦ Addition of new clients, however also attrition due to consolidation 735 professionals in 22 global offices ♦ Increased operating leverage: revenue growth at slightly reduced staff levels (compared to March update)

47 Market Risk Solutions 176 clients Credit and Capital Solutions 121 clients Operational Risk Solutions 98 clients Collateral Management Solutions 70 clients Algorithmics Solution Achievements

48 Algorithmics Growth Trajectory Algorithmics revenue is nearly double what it was at the time of its acquisition by Fitch Focused investments have delivered top-line growth Broadened geographic footprint Extended vertical reach Enhanced technology platforms Note: Fitch acquired Algorithmics on January 25, The 2004 figure is a proforma estimate representing the year ended January 2005 plus legacy FRM revenue. The 2005 figure represents revenue previously reported for the calendar year ended December All other years represent revenue previously reported for the Fimalac fiscal year ended September 30. In US $ Mil

49 Algorithmics Revenue by Region (in millions of US$) 2006/2007 (Oct 06 – Sept 07) 2007/2008 (Oct 07 - Sept08) % Change North America % Europe, Middle East & Africa % Latin America % Asia Pacific % TOTAL ALGORITHMICS 139.4*157.7*+13.1% *Includes inter-company revenue of $3.9M and $3.1M for the period ending September 07 and 08 respectively.

50 Algorithmics EBITDA and Operating Income *Includes inter-company revenue of $3.9M and $3.1M for the period ending September 07 and 08 respectively. (in millions of US$) 2006/2007 (Oct 06 – Sept 07) 2007/2008 (Oct 07 - Sept 08) % Change Revenue139.4*157.7*+13.1% EBITDA Profit sharing plan Depreciation Intangible assets amortization Recurring Operating Income

51 Algorithmics Market Drivers Current market turmoil reinforces the importance of effective risk management and will also lead to more comprehensive regulation Risk aware business applications are seen as a pre-condition for informed growth Sound risk management has become a critical requirement in ‘related’ market verticals and emerging markets Growing demands on risk management and cost pressures reinforce ‘buy’ over ‘build’ decisions Positive long term demand drivers may be balanced in the short term by the effects of uncertainty and consolidation in the industry

52 Algorithmics Investment Focus  Establishing presence in new geographical markets August 13, 2008 – “BlueCrest Capital Management announced that, as of July 1, 2008, Algorithmics' Algo Risk Service is in production for the risk management practice of BlueCrest. This brings together the world's leading provider of enterprise risk solutions and one of the top ten largest hedge fund firms in Europe. “ September 17, 2008 – “Allianz Group, the leading global services provider in insurance, banking and asset management, has chosen Algorithmics for its award-winning expertise in portfolio replication and enterprise risk management that will enable Allianz to calculate its risk capital across the entire group and meet its Solvency II requirements. “ April 9, 2008 – Algorithmics ranked by Celent as a leader for advanced features and technology and a leader for depth of client services in their 'Beyond Basel II: Evaluating the Financial and Credit Risk Solution Vendors 2008'.  Investing in managed service solutions for asset managers and hedge funds  Continued focus on core solutions  Deepening penetration of the insurance industry September 15, 2008 – “ Shin Kong Financial Holding Co, Ltd (SKFH), the Taiwanese financial services group, has chosen Algorithmics' market risk solution for enterprise risk management across the whole group. “ September 11, 2008 – Algorithmics has been issued a patent for its "Generator Libraries", the innovative building blocks used as the code base for its risk solutions. The patent has been awarded for the Generator's innovative design and structure which allows for extensibility and consistency in Algorithmics' underlying code base.”  Investing in Innovation to continue leadership in the market

53 Algorithmics Recognized Leadership Risk Rankings: 5 First Place Finishes “ Algorithmics held its dominant position in market, credit, operational risk, collateral management and Basel II ” – Buy-Side Technology Awards: Best Product Won “ Best Buy-Side Risk/Portfolio Analytics Product ” 2008 – Gartner Magic Quadrant for Operational Risk: Ranked as Leader Ranked as a leader in 2008 Gartner ’ s Operational Risk report – The Banker: Wholesale & Capital Markets Award for Risk Management Recognized for a stochastic pricing model for work with client Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Technology Awards -- Best Risk Management Technology Achievement With Bank of America for their Integrated Credit Engine.


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