Presentation on theme: "Approaches to using MICS for Equity/Poverty Analysis"— Presentation transcript:
1 Approaches to using MICS for Equity/Poverty Analysis Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys Data Interpretation, Further Analysis and Dissemination WorkshopApproaches to using MICSfor Equity/Poverty Analysis
2 Multidimensional Poverty Indices OutlineConsumption/income povertyWealth IndexBristol Child Deprivation IndexMultidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)New Contribution (MODA)CriticsExamples
3 Multidimensional Poverty Indices -Background Once upon a time…….INCOME/CONSUMPTION POVERTYThree main decisions:1. How do we assess individual well-being or "welfare"? Income or consumption2. At what level of measured well-being do we say that a person is not poor? Choose poverty lines3. How do we aggregate individual indicators of well-being into a measure of poverty? Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measures
4 Multidimensional Poverty Indices - Background UN General Assembly Definition of Child Poverty,10th January 2007“Children living in poverty are deprived of nutrition, water and sanitation facilities, access to basic health care services, shelter, education, participation and protection, and that while a severe lack of goods and services hurts every human being, it is most threatening and harmful to children, leaving them unable to enjoy their rights, to reach their full potential and to participate as full members of the society”
5 Multidimensional Poverty Indices WEALTH INDEX Use information on assets or household possessionsIt takes a large number of assets that may not tell us much individually, but are correlated since they are all related to an underlying factor – in this case, “wealth”Generate weights (factor scores) for each of the assets through principal components analysis
6 Multidimensional Poverty Indices WEALTH INDEX Weights summed by household, household members ranked according to the total score of the household in which they resideRun for urban and rural separately. Regressions used to combine.Divide the households into quintiles.
7 Multidimensional Poverty Indices WEALTH INDEX WatchBicycleMotorcycle/scooterAnimal-drawn cartCar/truckBoatSource of drinking waterType of sanitation facilityOwnership of animalsOwnership of landFurnitureAdditional household itemsNumber of persons per sleeping roomMaterial of dwelling floorMaterial of the roofMaterial of the wallsFuel used for cookingElectricityRadioTelevisionMobile telephoneNon-mobile telephoneRefrigerator
8 Multidimensional Poverty Indices WEALTH INDEX Long-term wealth versus current economic statusAdjustment for household size?How to deal with public services? Does the asset index reflect community variables (especially locally available infrastructure such as electricity for lighting or piped water) rather than household specific variables?Urban biasStrength of the index when comparing it over time and across countries
9 Multidimensional Poverty Indices WEALTH INDEX New contributions: Approaches for Urban and Rural Areas (DHS, 2008) Comparative Wealth Index (DHS, 2014)
10 Multidimensional Poverty Indices BRISTOL POVERTY MEASURE Developed by Bristol University - Townsend Centre for International Poverty Research with UNICEFUNICEF launched at the end of 2007 the Global Study on Child Poverty and Disparities that combines the income approach with the Bristol deprivations approach(seeMore than 50 UNICEF Country Offices in seven regions have joined the study. More than 25 country reports have been produced
11 Multidimensional Poverty Indices IndicatorShelterMore than 5 members per room, or no floor materialSanitationNo toilet facility of any kindWaterUse of surface water or source more than 30 min awayInformationNo access to radio, television, telephone or newspapers at homeNutritionSevere stunting, wasting or underweightEducationChildren (7-17) never been to schoolHealthNo immunization or no treatment of ARI or diarrhoea
12 Multidimensional Poverty Indices Children experiencing TWO OR MORE severe deprivations are absolute poorChildren experiencing ONE OR MORE severe deprivations are severely deprived34% of children in the developing world (around 650 million) live in absolute poverty56% of children in the developing world (over one billion) experience severe deprivation of at least one basic human need
15 Multidimensional Poverty Indices Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)Developed by Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative(Sabina Alkire and James Foster 2007, 2009)United Nations Development ProgrammeHuman Development Report2013: 104 countries (30 based on MICS)
17 Multidimensional Poverty Indices DomainIndicatorHealthAny child deadAny child (or adult) malnourishedEducationNo household member completed 5 yearsAny child (grades 1-8) out of schoolStandard ofNo electricityLivingUnimproved water or improved water more than 30 min round-tripUnimproved or shared sanitationDirt, sand, dung floorWood, charcoal, dung used as cooking fuel (biomass)Not owning more than one of: radio, TV, phone (incl. mobile), bike, motorbike and no car/truck
18 Multidimensional Poverty Indices Each dimension is equally weighted:Health = 1/3Education = 1/3Standard of Living = 1/3The MPI combines two aspects of poverty:MPI = H x AIncidence (H) = the percentage of people who are poor, or the headcountIntensity (A) of people’s poverty = the average and weighted percentage indicators in which poor people are deprived
19 Indicators1234WeightHousehold size75HEALTHAt least one member malnourished1.67One or more children have diedEDUCATIONNo one has completed five years of schoolingAt least one school-age child not enrolledLIVING CONDITIONSNo electricity0.56No access to clean drinking waterNo access to adeguate sanitationHouse has dirt floorHousehold uses “dirty” cooking fuelHousehold has no car and owns at most one of: bicycle, motorcycle, radio, refrigerator, telephone or televisionRESULTSWeighted count of deprivation, c188.8.131.525.00Is the household poor? c>3NOYES
20 Multidimensional Poverty Indices Weighted count of deprivation in household 1:Headcount ratio=(80 percent of people live in poor households)Intensity of poverty=(the average poor person is deprived in 56 percent of the weighted indicators)MPI= H × A = 0.45
21 Multidimensional Poverty Indices Results:1.7 billion people, 32% of the total population in 104 countries, are identified as multi-dimensionally poor.51% live in South Asia and 28% in sub-Saharan Africa
23 Countries with the highest incidence of poverty tend to have the highest intensity of poverty.
24 Multidimensional Poverty Indices Deprivation in living standards (the green portion) often contributes more than deprivation in either of the other two dimensions.In most countries, the second biggest contribution comes from educational deprivations.
25 Multidimensional Poverty Indices MPI and Income Povertyare relatedPEARSON CORR.$ 1.25/day – MPI = 0.85More people are MPI poor than income poor (slightly less at $2/day)
26 Multidimensional Poverty Indices New contribution:Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA) IRC/UNICEFChild is unit of analysisLife-cycle approachBuilding further on the rights-based approach of Bristol and the methodology used for the MPIAdding focus on overlaps, intensity of deprivationCC-MODA vs. N-MODA
27 Multidimensional Poverty Indices Critique (Ravallion a.o )Indicators likely to be correlated with consumption or income, but they would not capture well the impacts on poor people of economic downturns or shocks.As data is to be collected from the same survey, the precise indicators used in the MPI are somehow data driven and source dependant.Indices adding up “apples and oranges” …how can one contend that the death of a child is equivalent to having a dirt floor, cooking with wood, and not having a radio, TV, telephone, bike or car? Or that attaining these material conditions is equivalent to an extra year of schooling or to not having any malnourished family member?Death in family does not work when a mother has died – extreme vulnerability. Malnourishment does not capture death.Isn’t “multi-dimensional” about recognizing that there are important aspects of welfare that cannot be captured in a single index (a “Mashup Index”)?Multidimensional indicescomplementtraditional analysis
28 ReferencesAlkire, S. and Foster, J and Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measurement. OPHI Working Paper 7 and 32. Alkire, S. and Santos, M.E Acute Multidimensional Poverty: A New Index for Developing Countries. OPHI Working Paper 38. Gordon, David, et al., Child poverty in the developing world, The Policy Press, Bristol, UK, October Ravallion, Martin, Mashup Indices of Development (September, 2010). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 5432, Ravallion, Martin, On Multidimensional Indices of Poverty (February, 2011). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 5580, Rutstein, Shea O. and Kiersten Johnson The DHS Wealth Index. DHS Comparative Reports No. 6. Calverton, Maryland: ORC Macro. Rutstein, Shea O The DHS Wealth Index: Approaches for Rural and Urban Areas de Neubourg et al Cross-Country MODA Study, Technical note, Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA). de Neubourg et al Step-by-step guidelines to the Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA). UNICEF Office of Research Working Paper
29 What about MICS? Syntax developed for Bristol (with necessary modifications)MPIBoth to undergo a last reviewSyntax under development forMODACan be shared with MICS countries very soon – not for Final Reports, but for further analysis
30 Bristol ExampleTable: The Bristol Index Percentage of children age 0-17 year who are severely deprived in a selection of basic human need domains and percentage deprived in two or more domains, i.e. in absolute poverty, by background characteristics, Country, 2010Percentage of children severely deprived of:Total percentage of children severely deprivedDeprived in 2+ domains: In absolute povertyTotal number of childrenNutritionWaterSanitationHealthShelterEducationInformationAccess to Basic Services [*]SexMale11.634.017.411.4184.108.40.2062.320.45129Female9.133.318.3220.127.116.11.553.25106AreaUrban18.104.22.168.45.64.62.019.94.01743Rural11.238.821.312.422.214.171.1249.523.78492Education of household headNone43.032.414.426.870.436.22615Primary12.939.319.212.716.83.58.060.322.33698Secondary7.330.910.98.93.345.812.01929High126.96.36.199.429.16.01150Tertiary188.8.131.52.21.60.010.81.3816Missing/DK41.324.721.070.126Wealth index quintilesPoorest56.047.046.04.721.690.457.92401Second12.139.822.614.3184.108.40.2065.119.82281Middle33.711.06.23.2.547.28.52063Fourth7.923.41.013.14.4.433.52.91961Richest220.127.116.11.21528Total10.317.911.815.552.710234[*] The Bristol Index' compound indicator of Access to Basic Services (distance to school and health facility) is not available from MICS. The Index allows for data from several sources and the information can be added from elsewhere.
31 MPITable MPI.01: The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Distribution of households by dimensions and indicators of poverty, poverty headcount ratio, intensity of poverty, and the MPI, by selected characteristics, Country, 2010Percentage of the Population who are MPI poor and deprived in each indicatorH - The headcount ratio (the proportion of the population who are multidimensionally poor; c > 1/3)A - The intensity of poverty (the proportion of the weighted component indicators of which the poor, on average, are deprived)The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) (H x A)Percentage of Population Vulnerable to Poverty (c>1/5 and c<1/3)Percentage of Population in Severe Poverty (c>1/2)Number of household membersEducationHealthLiving StandardsYears of SchoolingSchool AttendanceChild MortalityNutritionElectricitySanitationDrinking WaterFloorCooking fuelAssetsAreaUrban10.53.810.45.30.8218.104.22.168.916.940.40.0210.10.516,331Rural38.39.722.87.737.948.75.722.214.171.1248.544.20.1723.511.739,589Education of household headNone41.210.07.435.049.25.114.749.866.838.044.124.111.636,082Primary23.75.519.09.321.537.05.220.534.046.023.643.90.1020.36.48,584Secondary +0.03.43.95.618.00.72.715.40.004.811,254Wealth index quintilesPoorest53.016.229.29.590.8126.96.36.1999.999.474.946.40.3519.826.910,735Second44.4188.8.131.52.123.469.091.446.842.40.2028.313.211,003Middle184.108.40.206.859.517.541.10.0734.12.911,129Fourth17.7220.127.116.11.020.05.437.30.211,629Richest18.104.22.168.338.91.311,424Total30.28.019.27.027.041.04.238.153.328.444.00.1219.68.555,920
32 MPIPercentage of the Population who are MPI poor and deprived in each indicatorEducationHealthLiving StandardsYears of SchoolingSchool AttendanceChild MortalityNutritionElectricitySanitationDrinking WaterFloorCooking fuelAssetsAreaUrban10.53.810.45.30.8222.214.171.124.916.9Rural38.39.722.87.737.948.75.7126.96.36.199Education of household headNone41.210.07.435.049.25.114.749.866.8Primary23.75.519.09.321.537.05.220.534.046.0Secondary +0.03.43.95.618.00.72.715.4Wealth index quintilesPoorest53.016.229.29.590.8188.8.131.529.999.4Second44.4184.108.40.206.123.469.091.4Middle220.127.116.11.859.5Fourth17.718.104.22.168.020.0Richest22.214.171.124.40.3Total30.28.019.27.027.041.04.213.238.153.3
33 MPIH - The headcount ratio (the proportion of the population who are multidimensionally poor; c > 1/3)A - The intensity of poverty (the proportion of the weighted component indicators of which the poor, on average, are deprived)The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) (H x A)Percentage of Population Vulnerable to Poverty (c>1/5 and c<1/3)Percentage of Population in Severe Poverty (c>1/2)Number of household membersAreaUrban3.840.40.0210.10.516,331Rural38.544.20.1723.511.739,589Education of household headNone38.044.124.111.636,082Primary23.643.90.1020.36.48,584Secondary +1.237.90.004.80.011,254Wealth index quintilesPoorest74.946.40.3519.826.910,735Second46.842.40.2028.313.211,003Middle17.541.10.0734.12.911,129Fourth5.437.315.40.211,629Richest1.038.91.30.311,424Total28.444.00.1219.68.555,920