Actuarial Valuations Public Pension Plans Private Pension Plans Open group Includes future new entrants Projected cash flows & projected assets Results seldom have effect on financials but they help drive policy Closed group Includes only those on hand on valuation date Present value of future benefits & current assets Results affect balance sheet and P&L and also drive policy
Social Security Populations General Population Labour Force Employed Population Insured Persons (Contributors & pensioners)
Contents of Actuarial Report (CAA Standard of Practice) Executive Summary Introduction Summary of Provisions Data Documentation Assumption Documentation Methodology Documentation Projection ResultsSensitivity Tests Analysis of Design, Investments, Operations Recommendations Attestation & Reliance Signature
Pension Terms – DB plans Accrued Benefit: benefit earned to date using past service and current salary Projected Accrued Benefit: benefit earned to date using past service and projected salary Past Service or Accrued Liability: Present value of accrued benefits (projected or unprojected) Unfunded Liability: Excess of accrued liabilities over assets
Primary Assumptions Country Social Security System Demographic Births Deaths Migration Economic GDP growth Productivity growth Labour force participation Inflation Demographic New entrants Leaving and re-entering Retirement rates Financial Ceiling adjustments Pension adjustments Return on investments Admin expense rates
Interest/Discount Rate Assumption Interest/Discount Rate May be prescribed Should reflect the expected return on the current pool of assets and investment policy It is not the rate of return that the actuary says your investments should or needs to earn!
Case #1 Janet is 65 and receives a pension of $1,000 per month. What is the plan’s liability for Janet? A. $12,000 B. Present value of $1,000 per month for the rest of her life C. Present value of $1,000 per month for next 10 years
Case #2 John has been employed with ABC for 15 years and is now 50 years old. He has already earned a pension of 30% of his projected final average salary which has a present value of $90,000. If he quits now, however, he will be entitled to only $30,000. What is the plan’s liability for John? A. $30,000 B. $90,000 C. Something in between
Case #3 The government just signed an agreement with a large investor to build a resort on a remote part of the island. The government needs to build access roads over the next 10 years at an estimated cost of $1 billion. What amount should the government recognise as a liability today? A. $0 B. $1 billion C. Present value of estimated road costs (< $1 billion)
Case #4 Jane just gave birth to a baby boy, Jude. The government promises 12 years of free schooling and health care from the cradle to the grave. Regarding its future obligations for Jude the government should: A. Ignore them as these are not recognizable liabilities B. Value theses promises but do not pre-fund them C. Value these promise and reflect them in public finances
Why Estimate Future Obligations? It’s good to know what they are It’s required Statutory Regulatory Accounting Standards Allows for orderly pre-funding (if appropriate) Enhances policy advice & reforms Gives actuaries work to do
Financing Future Liabilities Assets < 1 year’s payout Contribute what’s required to meet payout Pay-as- you-go Assets < Accrued Liabilities Contribution depends on law and/or funding goals Partially Funded Assets >= Accrued Liabilities Contribute enough to maintain this Fully Funded
Funding Considerations 18 Will funding change the overall cost of system? Will funding add or reduce risk of meeting obligations? Investment risk Interest rate risk Insolvency risk Political risk Will funding create investment opportunities for economy?
Public Sector Pensions are Different 19 1. Perpetual plan 2. Guaranteed pool of tax payers & contributors Gov’t/SSS can always raise tax/contribution rates to cover pensions expense 3. Why borrow at 9% and earn 6% on investments? 4. It all boils down to economy Changing demographics affects both alternatives If funded, investments must perform well If not funded, wages need to grow faster than pensions 5. We don’t pre-fund highways, health care and education. Are pensions different?
ALM For Public Pension Funds Different from ALM for private pension funds PV of Accrued Benefits doesn’t matter There’s guaranteed money coming in every year (contributions) Asset maturities should be matched with income- expenditure shortfalls, not benefit payouts Need projected net cash flows on open group basis
Closing Thoughts Public liabilities and private liabilities are different Not all future obligations need to be recognised as liabilities Not all liabilities need to be pre-funded Regardless of how liabilities are recognised or funded, sustainable systems require: a) Strong economy b) Good design c) Efficient & effective administration d) Honest & responsible government