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Task 1: The Language of Chance Words and phrases sure thing out of the question perhaps no doubt out of reach once in a blue moon most likely pig’s might fly possibly impossible maybe London to a brick safe bet no way shot in the dark long odds come rain or shine sporting chance long shot expected probably low risk unlikely you’ve got Buckley’s doubtful definitely in the bag certain rock solid ten to one rarely never What do these words and phrases mean?

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Origins and Meanings of the Phrases of Probability Once in a blue moon Meaning: almost never, very seldom hardly ever Origin: when the moon is a crescent some people say the other part has a bluish colour to it. This ‘blue moon’ is rare. In the bag Meaning: certain of success, fixed, sure thing Origin: Game birds were used in fighting and were taken to the where they would fight in a bag. Owners of the birds would say to other competitors that victory was ‘in the bag’ meaning they were sure to win. We still use this expression to mean we are certain of success.

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Task 1: The Language of Chance What is the chance of this happening? Match examples of situations and events to different likelihoods e.g. Rain today School will finish early A police car will go past the school with its siren going Lunch time will be extended Lunch bell will go on time Your family will win lotto Someone will away in the class because they are sick You will fall over in the playground and hurt yourself You will eat your lunch You will go to bed on time It will be cloudy tomorrow You will eat ice-cream for dessert tonight Your favourite football team will win the grand final this year Which chance word or expression would you choose to represent the likelihood of these occurring? Can you think of another more suitable word? uncertain very likely very unlikely a good chance extremely likely in the bag maybe never pig’s might fly

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Task 2: Collect all the Swap Cards The NEW brand of cereal has 6 new swap cards for you to collect. One in every packet. Investigation: How many packets of the new cereal would you have to buy in order to get one of each swap card? NumberFrequencyTotal 1 2 3 4 5 6 Use the frequency table to keep a record of the results of your experiments. Numbers on the table can be changed to colours. How many packets would you need to buy to get one of each card? _______ Conduct the experiment 20 times. What is the average number of boxes you would need to buy?___________

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Task 2: Collect all the Swap Cards Class spreadsheet – results of group experiments ( 20 experiments) ExperimentCountersDiceCardsSpinners 1 2 3 20 Total Average Table needs to have a line for each number 1-20

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Task 3: Lucky Number Game Good luck! 12345 678910 1112131415 1617181920 Pick your favourite numbers: What chance do you think you have of picking the selected numbers?! 1 number ___________________ 2 numbers _________________ 3 numbers __________________ 4 numbers _________________

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Task 3: Lucky Number Game Frequency table – numbers selected over 10 games. NumberTallyTotalFraction% 1 2 3 20 Share ideas: How could you modify the game to increase your chances of winning the game?

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How to Make Your Own Spinner Steps to follow: 1.Colour your spinner according to the given instructions. 2. Place a paperclip on the spinner in the centre of the circle. Use a pencil to hold the paperclip in place. The paperclip should be able to spin around 360 degrees. 3. Flick the paper clip and note where the paper clip lands.

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Student Guide: How To Simplify Fractions Example: Simplify 18/24 Steps to follow: Press Display 1.18 24 8/24 2. 18/24 S 3. 18/24 S 9/12 4. 9/12 S ¾ Note: You may need to press and more than once to get the fraction to its simplest form. Keys used: Numerator Denominator Simp

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Student Guide: Converting a Fraction to a % Example: Convert 6/40 to a % Steps to follow: Press Display 1. 6 40 6/40 2. 6/40% 3. 15% Note: arrow represents cursor on display Keys used: Numerator Denominator Percentage Key Enter

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Student Guide: Store to Memory and Memory Recall Keys Steps to calculate the average/mean: Press Display 4 x 12 4 x 12 = 48 (need a m above 12) 3 x 13 3 x 13 = 39 (need a m above 13) 4 x 14 4 x 14 = 56 (need a m above 14) 3 x 15 3 x 15 = 45(need a m above 15 ) (Recall total)188 (m above 188) 188 ÷ 14 = 13.4 Note: If you then press the key twice it will clear the memory. Packets of cerealTallyFrequency 12IIII4 13III3 14IIII4 15III3

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Chance We will base on the frequency theory to study chances (or probability).

Chance We will base on the frequency theory to study chances (or probability).

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