Presentation on theme: "미래사회에서의 정보환경 ( 정보통신 기술이 바꾸는 미래 비즈니스 환경 ) 미래사회에서의 정보환경 ( 정보통신 기술이 바꾸는 미래 비즈니스 환경 ) 부산대학교 공과대학 정보컴퓨터공학부 권혁철."— Presentation transcript:
미래사회에서의 정보환경 ( 정보통신 기술이 바꾸는 미래 비즈니스 환경 ) 미래사회에서의 정보환경 ( 정보통신 기술이 바꾸는 미래 비즈니스 환경 ) 부산대학교 공과대학 정보컴퓨터공학부 권혁철
목차 ⊙ 정보기술 기반 사회에서 앞서가며 성공한 Jim Clark, 개 념을 제공하는 Alvin Toffler ⊙ IBM 이 보는 관점 그리고 해석 ⊙ Thomas W. Malone 의 관점과 해석 ⊙ 인터넷 비즈니스 환경 ⊙새로운 비즈니스의 특징과 예
We are at the dawn of an age of networked intelligence - an age that is giving birth to a new economy, a new politics, and a new society. Businesses will be transformed, governments will be renewed, and individuals will be able to reinvent themselves - all with the help of information technology. (Tapscott, Digital Economy, 1996)
Jim Clark & Alvin Toffler ⊙ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_H._Clarkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_H._Clark ⊙ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alvin_Toffler 부에 대한 개념 변화
James H. Clark ⊙ 고등학교 중퇴 후 해군 근무, 야간 대학에서 수업을 듣고, University of New Orleans 에 입학 후 물리학 학사, 석사, 유타대학 컴퓨터 박사 (1974) University of New Orleans ⊙ University of California, Santa Cruz 고수 (1979), Stanford 대학 전 기과 교수 (1982)University of California, Santa Cruz ⊙ Geometry Engine 개발, Sicon Graphics, Inc. 설립 (1980), production of Hollywood movie special effects 에 사용, 1990 년 퇴 출Geometry Engineicon Graphics, Inc.Hollywood ⊙ Clark and Marc Andreessen, the co-creator of the World Wide Web browser Mosaic, founded Netscape.(1994)Marc AndreessenWorld Wide WebMosaicNetscape ⊙ Healtheon, with the original WebMD to form the current WebMD Corporation (1998) ⊙ myCFO - a company to help wealthy individuals manage their fortunes (1999) and sold to Harris Bank in late 2002 ⊙ Chairman and financial backer of network security startup company Neoteris, founded in 2000, which was acquired by NetScreen in 2003 and subsequently by Juniper Networks NetScreenJuniper Networks
James H. Clark ⊙ Director and investor in biotechnology company DNA Sciences, founded in 1998, which went bankrupt and was acquired by Genaissance Pharmaceuticals Inc. in 2003, Donated $10 million to Stanford University for bio-science ⊙ In the Fall of 2005 Clark, along with David Filo of Yahoo!, each donated $30 million to Tulane University for merit based scholarships to provide education to deserving students regardless of financial situation.David Filo Yahoo!
Global Innovation Outlook ⊙ Early in the 21st century, it's the very nature of innovation that has changed: it's happening faster, it's more open and collaborative, and outdated concepts around tightly controlled intellectual property are giving way to a more enlightened emphasis on sharing intellectual capital. ⊙ You don’t create innovation simply by increasing your R&D budget. You do it by creating an environment where innovation will flourish …. ⊙ Innovation isn’t the same as invention. Innovation is a societal, not a technological … combinations of technologies, expertise, business models and polices
Innovation -- Definitions ⊙ The act of introducing something new; something newly introduced ⊙ “…arises from the intersection of invention and insight.” ⊙ The creation of a new idea/invention and application of it in a useful manner that becomes widely accepted 간단 히 비디오
Innovation in the 21st Century ⊙ Commodification of technology “IT Doesn’t Matter,” Harvard Business Review ⊙ Potential to transform business processes ⊙ Globalization of markets ⊙ Potential to drive substantial societal benefits
16 The Law of Disruption Social, political, and economic systems change incrementally, but technology changes exponentially. TIME CHANGE Political Change Business Change Social Change Technology Change Source: Unleashing the Killer App By: Larry Downes, Chunka Mui Slide Courtesy, Don Pearson, VP, Government Technology
Reinventing Innovation ⊙ It is occurring more rapidly - Barriers of geography and access have come down - Cycle from Invention to market saturation is shortening ⊙ It requires wider collaboration across disciplines and specialties - Many challenges are now too complex to be solved by individual pockets of brilliant people - Combination of technology, expertise, business models, and policies will drive innovation ⊙ The concept of intellectual property is being reexamined - To reap return it will be treated more like capital – something to be invested, spread, even shared - Less tightly controlled or hoarded
On Demand Innovation Services Bringing real-world challenges back to the lab
Global Innovation Outlook Objectives ⊙ Begin a worldwide dialogue about innovation, business transformation and societal progress ⊙ Uncover new opportunities and insights that will shape business and society ⊙ Demonstrate the value of collaboration across a global ecosystem of experts
Global Innovation Outlook Government & Its Citizens ⊙ GREATER TRANSPARENCY AND ACCESS – a new bully pulpit ⊙ NATIONS VIRTUALIZE ⊙ A CRISIS OF TRUST
EVERY YEAR, THE CITY OF BANGALORE PRODUCES NEARLY AS MANY COMPUTER SCIENCE ENGINEERS AS THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES Call center in India Call center in LA 필리핀
HOW WILL KOREA RECRUIT TALENT? WHAT ARE THE NEW RULES OF ITIZENSHIP FOR LABOUR? HOW WILL KOREAN ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES BE BUILT?
Global Innovation Outlook The Healthcare Ecosystem ⊙ THE UNDER-SERVED WILL LEAD THE WAY ⊙ INTEGRATING HEALTHCARE RECORDS ⊙ IT’S ALL ABOUT YOU
Global Innovation Outlook The Business of Work & Life ⊙ CORPORATE CULTURE CATCHES UP TO THE KNOWLEDGE AGE ⊙ IN A KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY, WORK BECOMES ACADEMIC ⊙ FINDING THE OFF SWITCH IN AN ALWAYS ON WORLD
Global Innovation Outlook The Business of Work & Life ⊙ Role of the Academy ⊙ Role of companies and consortia – skills development ⊙ Generalists versus specialists – skills match ⊙ New academic disciplines and practitioners
Global Innovation Outlook Implications of Innovation ⊙ New business designs emerging that thrive on collaborative innovation ⊙ Standards must take hold in every industry Beyond IT standards ⊙ Intelligent IP Reform ⊙ The world revolves around the primacy of the individual
Global Innovation Outlook Implications for the CEO & CIO ⊙ Will studying older business models relevant to the Industrial Age prepare you for 21st century innovation? ⊙ What long-term strategy for innovation will your business set? ⊙ Are you cultivating an environment for innovation? ⊙ Should you hire specialists, or a generalists? With what new skills? Cultural literacy? ⊙ How will you apply innovation to make your company and the world a better place?
Industry and Government Actions to Drive Innovation ⊙ Expansion of Office of Innovation ⊙ Skills Development ⊙ Open Standards for Innovation ⊙ Innovation Taskforce – Ind/Gov Partnership ⊙ e-government innovation
More on IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook ⊙ Download it here: www.ibm.com/gio ⊙ Order a copy of the GIO… ⊙ Get involved with the GIO…. … by e-mailing GIO2004@us.ibm.com
CEO and Board “Respond to new market opportunities and competitive pressures” Responsive to the market Supplier Demands “From independence to interdependence” Need online connection Employee “It has to work” Ease of use Customer “From one transaction to lifetime loyalty” Ease of use CFO “Better cost controls” Rapid ROI The “Complexity Crisis”
How Can You Manage a Dynamic Enterprise? Thomas W. Malone MIT
What is a Dynamic Enterprise? ⊙ Continuous innovation to pursue cost reduction and differentiation ⊙ Real-time response to changing situations ⊙ Intelligent IT infrastructure to help make rapid, flexible decisions Adapted from Entrue Consulting Partners
The bottom line We are in the early stages of an increase in human freedom in business...... that may be as important as the change to democracies has been for governments.
Why is this happening? ⊙ For the first time in history, we can now have the economic benefits of large organizations… economies of scale and knowledge ⊙ …without giving up the human benefits of small ones freedom, creativity, motivation, and flexibility … ⊙ This change is enabled by new technologies. Lower communication costs mean many people have enough information to make more decisions for themselves ⊙ But the change is driven by human values. People use their freedom to get more of whatever they want.
Example: Wikipedia ⊙ An “open content” encyclopedia (www.wikipedia.org) ⊙ Anyone can add or change anything at any time ⊙ Frequent contributors watch recent changes to undo or correct errors ⊙ Started 2001. Already over 730,000 articles. Not perfect, but very good.
Example: eBay ⊙ On-line auctions for all kinds of products Toys, cars, antiques, real estate, computers, … ⊙ $3.3B revenue in 2004 ⊙ Over 65 million active buyers and sellers 430,000 people make their living from selling on eBay If they were all employees, eBay would be one of the 5 largest private employers in the US!
Example: AES Corp. (1981 년 설립 ) ⊙ Worlds largest global electrical power producer 2004 revenue $9.5B. 30,000 employees in 26 countries. a Fortune 300 company ⊙ Guiding principles Fairness, integrity, social responsibility, fun ⊙ Dennis Bakke (co-founder) says: “We never set out to be the most efficient or most powerful or richest company in the world - only the most fun.”
AES Corp. – Extensive delegation ⊙ One of the best ways to have fun is to have responsibility for things that matter ⊙ Very new and low-level employees have huge responsibility maintenance workers manage investment fund plant technicians purchase major equipment entry level analysts and engineers manage billion dollar acquisitions
AES Corp. – How does it work? ⊙ Very careful about hiring ⊙ You don’t need approval, but you have to ask for advice Extensive use of email ⊙ Managers’ role: Give advice, when asked Set up structure and pick who to make decisions Key role in compensation
Other examples of loose hierarchies ⊙ GNU, Linux : A worldwide network of thousands of volunteer programmers developed a computer operating system with very little centralized control. ⊙ Google : Programmers coordinate directly with each other by writing blogs that describe what they are doing on a daily basis.
Example: Mondragon Cooperative Corp. ⊙ The world's second largest worker cooperative (the largest is Indian Coffee House)worker cooperativeIndian Coffee House a cooperative owned and operated by its "worker-owners".cooperative ⊙ 150 worker-owned cooperatives in the Basque Country, SpainBasque Country ⊙ 2004: $13.2B revenue, 71,000 employees ⊙ Mostly manufacturing, but includes bank, supermarket chain, consulting firm
Mondragon organizational structure ⊙ Members of each cooperative elect “Governing Council” to hire and fire Managing Director, distribute profits, etc. ⊙ General Assemblies twice a year ⊙ Equivalent structures for 22 industry groups and whole corporation ⊙ Corporation doesn’t own subsidiaries; individual cooperatives own the corporation.
Mondragon lessons ⊙ Most workers are owners ⊙ One person, one vote. ⊙ Complex multi-level democratic structure ⊙ Workers are motivated as owners and decision- makers
Scenario: The E-Lance Economy ⊙ 1 - 10 people per firm ⊙ Temporary combinations for various projects ⊙ Examples Making films Construction
Example: Elance, Inc. ⊙ On-line auctions for professional services Software development, graphic design, research, translation, etc. ⊙ Buyer posts project, selects winning bidder, evaluates completed work ⊙ Over 200,000 businesses from over 140 countries registered ⊙ For the past 7 years, with over 800,000 registered users ⊙ Over 40% of transactions cross national borders
When should you decentralize? ⊙ Motivation ⊙ Creativity ⊙ Many minds on same problem ⊙ Flexibility ⊙ Individualization Difficulties in… ⊙ Making decisions quickly ⊙ Managing risk and quality ⊙ Exploiting economies of scale ⊙ Sharing knowledge effectively Potential benefitsPotential costs
What does all this mean for Dynamic Enterprises? ⊙ Organizations can sometimes do things much faster than you might think. ⊙ In many cases, the best way to get continuous innovation and adaptation is by giving lots more people the freedom to make lots more choices for themselves. ⊙ Intelligent IT infrastructures can help make all this possible. ⊙ New ways of organizing work are often needed, too.
성공적 기업가, 미래의 역군 ⊙적합한 환경에서 ⊙적합한 여건이 주어지고 ⊙다양한 우수 인력을 모아서 적합한 일을 부여할 수 있고, 협동시킬 수 있는 지도력이 있으면서 ⊙상황에 능동적으로 대처할 수 있고, ⊙기회를 잡으면 밀어붙일 수 있으면서, ⊙비전을 직원에게 심어줄 수 있고 ⊙운이 좋은 – 똑똑한 부하보다 운이 좋은 부하가 좋다. 인재가 성공한다 !! : DHL, DELL, Yahoo : 빌 게이츠, 안철수, 이찬진
미래 기술 / 산업 환경 ⊙교육 과정이 길어지고 ⊙기술 생명주기가 짧아지며 ⊙무한경쟁에 기반한 세계화 ⊙양극화하는 국제환경 및 국제분업 강화 ⊙이른 정년퇴직과 늘어나는 수명의 부조화 ⊙지식 정도에 기반한 빈부격차 (Digerati) ⊙기술의 융합 ⊙최고만 살아남음
Paradigm shift 1995200020052010 Ubiquitous Computing 시대 Ubiquitous Computing 시대 Mainframe 시대 PC 시대 총정보자원량총정보자원량 전산화 → 정보화 → 지식화 → 유비퀴터스화 (OA) (MIS) (KM) (U Com+Net) Wired Wireless Cyber Korea 21e-Korea u-Korea Paradime 의 변화
인터넷 ⊙초기 60 년대 : 미국에서 만들어짐 ( 실험 ) 70-80 년대 : 컴퓨터 전문가 위주로 사용 ( 기술개발, 표준화 ) ⊙ 웹의 도입과 Web1.0 90 년대 : 웹의 도입, 일상화 ( 사용자인터페이스, 벤처 탄생 ) 2000 년대 초 : 대중화, 상업적 이용 (Chaos, 신세계로 각광 ) 현재 : 10 억 페이지가 넘는 정보홍수, 국가 간 정보격차 확대, 새 로운 응용 창출, 정보과부화 ) Yahoo, Google ⊙ User Generated Contents and Web2.0 제어 가능한 정보제공 (Web2.0, Semantic Web, 일상화, Ubiquitous, Convergence) 유튜브 (youtube.com) 설립 2 년 만에 1 조 6 천억 원에 팔여
Characteristics of Valuable Information ⊙ Accurate ⊙ Complete ⊙ Economical ⊙ Flexible ⊙ Reliable ⊙ Relevant ⊙ Simple ⊙ Timely ⊙ Verifiable ⊙ Accessible ⊙ Secure
How would you rate your ability to use the Internet? (Year to Year) Q640 (P-1)
How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall do you think is reliable and accurate? (Year to Year) Q160 (M-1)
Information on the Internet: Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above) Stage 5 – RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03) 7.2% 18.5% 5.0% 25.3% 4.8% 18.3% 17.6% 36.0% 7.1% 54.0% 13.4% 53.1% 47.3% 54.9% 13.3% 59.7% 26.4% 58.0% 69.7% 32.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% BritainChina (Urban) GermanyHungaryJapanKoreaSingaporeSpainSwedenUSA Percent of Adult Users None of it or Some of itMost of it or All of it
Eventually I will probably make many more purchases online Q850C x YEAR (K-34)
Average Hours per Week Spent Watching Television: Users vs. Non-Users HTV x Usenet – 7 extra questions (10-22-03) 13.0 18.3 11.8 20.9 10.2 16.2 20.4 14.1 12.9 11.6 15.9 20.2 15.5 14.5 18.7 22.9 17.5 26.3 18.1 24.3 15.6 16.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 BritainChile (Santiago) GermanyHungaryJapanKoreaMacaoSingaporeSwedenTaiwanUSA Number of Hours UsersNon-users
Long Tails ⊙ The Long Tail was first coined by Chris Anderson (2004) ⊙ products that are in low demand or have low sales volume can collectively make up a market share that rivals or exceeds the relatively few current bestsellers and blockbusters, if the store or distribution channel is large enough. ⊙ Amazon.com, Netflix, 영국 Artist, 부산의 특이한 것 파는 대학생 Amazon.comNetflix We sold more books today that didn't sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday ⊙ The user-edited internet encyclopedia Wikipedia has many low popularity articles that, collectively, create a higher quantity of demand than a limited number of mainstream articles found in a conventional encyclopedia such as the Encyclopædia BritannicaencyclopediaWikipediaEncyclopædia Britannica
Long Tails: Relationship with storage and distribution costs The key factor that determines whether a sales distribution has a Long Tail is the cost of inventory storage and distribution. Where inventory storage and distribution costs are insignificant, it becomes economically viable to sell relatively unpopular products
Long Tails: Cultural and political impact ⊙ Where the Long Tail works, minority tastes are catered to, and individuals are offered greater choice. In situations where popularity is currently determined by the lowest common denominator, a Long Tail model may lead to improvement in a society's level of culture Loyalty of costumers ⊙ Some of the most successful Internet businesses have leveraged the Long Tail as part of their businesses. Examples include eBay (auctions), Yahoo! and Google (web search), and Amazon (retail) amongst the majors along with smaller Internet companies like Audible (audio books) and Netflix (video rental).eBayYahoo!GoogleAmazon AudibleNetflix ⊙ Blue ocean Red Ocean
User-generated content ⊙ Come into the mainstream during 2005 in web publishing and new media content production circles ⊙ Reflects the democratisation of media production through new technologies that are accessible and affordable digital video, blogging, podcasting, mobile phone photography, wikisbloggingpodcasting ⊙ Flickr, Friends Reunited, FourDocs, YouTube, Revver, Second Life and WikipediaFlickrFriends ReunitedFourDocsYouTubeRevver Second LifeWikipedia ⊙ 우리나라에서는 일반적이었으나 최근에 미국에서 각광 싸이월드, 지식검색
인터넷 기반 비즈니스 ⊙ 손님을 어떻게 단골로 ? ⊙ 손님의 요구를 어떻게 반영 ? ⊙ 유지보수는 어떻게 ? ⊙ 제품의 하자와 문제점을 어떻게 ? ⊙ 공략 대상을 누구로 ? ⊙ 큰 크기 옷, 큰 크기 신발
인터넷은 사회, 정치, 경제, 인간 삶을 바꾸고 있다. 어떻게 바꿀까 ? 1990 년 이전에 어떤 영화도 상상하지 못한 변화 !! 우연이 필연이 되는 사회 …
72 세계는 평평하다 ⊙세계화 : 글로벌 경쟁무대에서 세계적 차원의 경쟁 동등하게 협력하고 경쟁하는 구조 ⊙지구상의 모든 지적 자산을 하나의 네트워크에 연결해 급속한 번영 과 혁신이 가능한 시대 ⊙자본은 가장 수익성 높은 투자처를 찾아 이동하고 일자리 ( 산업 ) 는 가장 최적의 장소로 이동 최적의 장소란 : 인력의 양과 질, 인건비, 교육 수준, 생활 환경 등등 업무를 세분화하고 정형화하여 가장 적절한 곳에서 수행 무엇을 하던 세계적 수준의 경쟁력이 필요 ( 개인이든 기업이든 국가든 ) 시장에서 일어난 급격한 변화를 따라가지 못하면 도태될 수밖에 없다
73 세계화의 3 단계 ⊙제 1 단계 : 콜럼버스, 제국주의 ⊙제 2 단계 : 다국적 기업 ⊙제 3 단계 : 2000 년 이후 - 정보화의 영향 주체 : 개인 ( 중국, 인도 포함 인종적 다양함 ) 개인이 전세계 차원에서 협력 및 경쟁 성장엔진 광케이블 네트워크와 협업을 가능케하는 소프트웨어 ⊙세계화의 현상으로 범세계적 무한경쟁 : Winner-Takes-All Amazon.com 의 판매 기록 From : “The World is Flat” by T. L. Freedman
세계화 3 단계의 사례 (1) ⊙ 2005 년 40 만 미국인의 회계정산을 인도회사에서 미국에서 회계사는 세무전략이나 고객관리에 ⊙컴퓨터단층촬영 화면 인터넷으로 전송, 가격이 저렴한 의사가 진단 ⊙기자 업무 중 단순 머리기사 및 표 작성을 인도에 고급 기자는 시건분석 같은 부가가치가 높고 성취감 주는 작업 ⊙ Call Center : 영어권 : 인도, 일어권 : 중국 74
세계화 3 단계의 사례 (2) ⊙인도인 “ 개인비서 ” : 연설 원고, ppt 화일 작성 인도 : 년 250 만의 대졸자, MBA 만 8 만 9000 명 ⊙대련 – 동북아 지역 IT 개발의 중심지로 2400 개 IT 기업 (780 개의 외국투자 기업 ) 20 만명의 대학생, 인구의 50% 가 인터넷 접속 24 개의 대학에서 년 5 만명의 IT 인력 생산 ⊙우리의 일자리도 WWW.SAMSUNG.COM 유지 관리 IBM Korea 의 인사관리 75
76 세계를 평평하게 하는 10 가지 동력 ⊙ Windows System ⊙ Netscape ⊙ Workflow software ⊙ Open source ⊙ Out sourcing ⊙ Off shoring ⊙ Supply Chain Management ⊙ In Sourcing ⊙ Informing ⊙ Other High Tech items From : “The World is Flat” by T. L. Freedman