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Muhammad Wahab Assistant Professor, Department of Botany, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Punjab, Pakistan. 4 th Asia 2k workshop in Kyoto, Japan.

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Presentation on theme: "Muhammad Wahab Assistant Professor, Department of Botany, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Punjab, Pakistan. 4 th Asia 2k workshop in Kyoto, Japan."— Presentation transcript:

1 Muhammad Wahab Assistant Professor, Department of Botany, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Punjab, Pakistan. 4 th Asia 2k workshop in Kyoto, Japan (19-20, March, 2015) 1

2 2 1. Objectives 2. Introduction to study area 3. Materials and Methods 4. Results 5. Discussions and Conclusion This Presentation includes:

3 Mega drought (late half of 18 th century) To recognize suitable (sensitive) Conifer species for dendrohydrological potential To explore suitable locations, where precipitation and river flow mainly responsible for controlling tree’s growth, To develop tree-ring width chronologies and establish correlation between tree’s radial growth and recorded climate, To know the most appropriate months or season for reconstruction of past precipitation record and various rivers flow discharged in the study area. Objectives:

4 4 Study area and its Geographical Location: N

5 5 Climate of Study area……

6 6

7 7 Different rivers and their tributaries system in the study area

8 8  World most arid countries rainfall less than 240 mm/year (Economy heavily dependent of an annual influx of river water),  Severe decline in flow of Indus River poses a great threat (Many civilization have been destroyed or destabilized due to past drought or change of behavior of Indus),  World Bank 2005 Report 3408-PK (Water Economy : running dry)  IPCC prediction (Initial increase of flow followed by widespread and sever drought )  We need to understand past river flow changes,  Tree-ring Science can address, but it is still in infancy and that there is an inadequate knowledge Why Tree-ring study?

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10 Rapidly Developing Science In early stages in Pakistan Applied in trees age and growth rates studies. Developed a network of tree- ring width chronologies for the last 700 years Found its strong correlation with climate In Pakistan its wide scope in various fields include: Climatology Hydrology and Hydroelectricity Agriculture Forestry Tourism STATUS AND SCOPE OF TREE- RING RESEARCH IN PAKISTAN 10

11 Samples were obtained from each forest and species mostly in the forms of increment cores. Field and lab methods were followed the standard methods described by Stokes and Smiley (1968), Fritts (1976), Cook and Kairiukstis (1990) and Speer (2010). The visual cross dating was statistically confirmed using the COFECHA program (Holmes, 1983). Standardized tree-rings width chronologies were developed using ARSTAN program (Cook, 1985) Multiple correlation coefficients and response functions were established between tree-rings record versus recoded precipitation at various observatory and different rivers flow data. Materials and Methods

12 Wood sampling from deodar

13 Results: Sampled following pine tree species from the study area, 1.Abies pindrow 2.Cedrus deodara 3.Juniper excelsa 4.Picea smithiana 5.Pinus gerardiana 6.Pinus roxburghii 7.Pinus wallichiana 8.Taxus fuana

14 Site NameSpeciesMRWSpanMSAC1RbarSNREPS Murree – AyubiaABPI1.59 ± 0.933280.2030.4810.3693.60.782 Astore – RamaABPI0.83 ± 0.315010.1410.3870.49417.60.946 Astore – RamaPIWA0.93 ± 0.616890.1190.4270.49031.20.969 IslambakayCDDE1.07 ± 0.584960.1820.2900.51941.10.976 ZairatCDDE1.79 ± 0.735340.1370.5480.3786.30.863 BumburetCDDE0.88 ± 0.595960.1630.6050.51212.60.926 Chitral – Gol NPCDDE1.44 ± 0.714700.1720.4770.52913.60.932 BumburetPIGE0.67 ± 0.296040.1680.4000.54111.00.917 Chitral – Gol NPPIGE0.52 ± 0.247470.1620.3160.52311.90.922 NaltarPCSM0.83 ± 0.406190.1470.3000.57129.90.968 1- Several Conifer species available2- Several different climatic regimes recognized 3- Several locations have more than one species. Present potential for multi climate comparison 14 Statistical Values of different Tree-rings width chronologies.

15 15 Tree-ring Characteristics:

16 Pine tree species with Dendrochronological potential Abies pindrow Cedrus deodara Pinus wallichiana Pinus gerardiana Picea smithiana Our aim is to collect sample from the above long-lived species and provide strong data base for Tree-ring studies for the entire region 16

17 PSKARPSJUTPSHARPSBAGPSNALPSCHRPSCHPJECHPJENAL PSJUT 0.614 *** PSHAR 0.595 *** 0.641 *** PSBAG 0.478 *** 0.737 *** 0.56 *** PSNAL 0.402 *** 0.288 *** 0.232 ** 0.294 *** PSCHR 0.487 *** 0.602 *** 0.606 *** 0.678 *** 0.462 *** PSCHP 0.344 *** 0.295 *** 0.203 ** 0.398 *** 0.247 *** 0.342 *** JECHP 0.383 *** 0.293 *** 0.459 *** 0.189 *0.0090.1550.067 JENAL 0.206 **-0.01 0.385 ***-0.033-0.107-0.052-0.108 0.469 *** PGCHP 0.383 *** 0.539 *** 0.289 *** 0.456 ***0.012 0.399 *** 0.248 ** 0.222 **-0.146 Correlation matrix vlues among various chronologies

18 18 % Variance explained by Tree-rings data versus Water related instrumental data S.No.Water Parameters% variance 1. Precipitation (total monthly mm) 35-55 2. River flow (Water discharge in Cusec) 21-47 3.Humidity (mean monthly in Percent) 18-34

19 19  Highest strength of signals were seen in Picea smithiana but Pius roxburghii and Taxus fuana have no signlas.  This study also supported the statement of Ahmed et al (2011) that higher correlations are observed between two different species in close proximity to each other than between two sites of the same species but further apart.  Growth in some forest increases at high altitude in May–September as water discharge increased may be due to high temperature that caused rapid glaciers melting (Cook et al 2013).  These current study shows positive response of precipitation in February-April also support previous results (Ahmed et al 2011,2012,2013)  Here we observed that Low and high humidity also affected the growth of these tree species.  Tree-rings chronologies of mentioned pine species could be used for the models generating of precipitation and riverflow.  Preliminary work has been done and reconstructions is in Progress. Discussions and Conclusion:

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