Presentation on theme: "Opportunities for TNE in Sub-Saharan Africa Guy Doughty Consultant +447771728717."— Presentation transcript:
Opportunities for TNE in Sub-Saharan Africa Guy Doughty Consultant
Opportunities in Africa Overall average student mobility has remained steady at >2% Grew through increases in enrolment, not in mobility rates Many of those conditions are changing, and increasing competition Africa is a region where there is huge potential –
Opportunities in Africa Measured by: Demographic trends Lack of domestic public capacity to fulfil demand Economic Patterns
SSA lags behind in tertiary enrolment
Shortfall in Nigerian capacity… Current regional shortfall of 9 million?
Demographic Trends By 2020 – 4 countries will account for over 50% of the world’s 18‐ 22 population: India, China, US and Indonesia Further 25% will come from Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico, Egypt and Vietnam By end of century half of year olds in Sub- Saharan Africa Significant decline for China (over 20m), Russia, Germany and South Korea
Africa will be the fastest growing region over the next 40 years. All the Growth will come from Sub-Saharan Africa
Key sources of tertiary age students in 2020
Change and decline in key markets
Additionally… Many countries have rapid economic growth: latest figures 13 of top 30 in the region. World Bank (and others) stress the importance of tertiary education for future development Growing m/c – with a willingness to fund tertiary education privately
It all leads to the need for international collaboration: To meet demand, to grow and develop, need large expansion of tertiary opportunities Constrained choices Increased opportunities across a range of areas: – Increased recruitment – TNE – Research – Capacity building
The benefits of in-country delivery Income generation Deepening internationalisation As a feeder – part of recruitment strategy: – Increase size of potential market – way to increase undergraduate enrolments – Academic planning – Better prepare the students
Finally: BIS, BC priority markets for recruitment/TNE include only Botswana and Mauritius in the ‘average opportunities’ category, and Nigeria in the below average opportunities’ category In fact, Nuffic note, many of major destinations have very similar target markets – going to be pretty crowded!
However… But little attention to Africa – aside from Nigeria (forecast 8.3% PG growth to 2024 – BC Oct 2014) Lack of existing TNE Regulatory regimes and government policies Economic factors Social Factors
Why hasn’t there been more TNE? Cultural heritage – Francophone, Anglophone, Lusaphone Instability Low income Difficulties of ‘doing business’ Regulatory regimes Fears over academic quality and Difficulties of finding partners
And 7 of the top 20 in Africa?
Details: Total 2010/11 = 102,140 increase 20% previous year. decline in distance learning down to from the previous year. Dominance of OB/ACCA particularly strong: of 503,985 the Oxford Brookes partnership accounts for 239,895 (47.7%). In SSA: of 102, ,600 are with the Oxford Brookes Partnership – a staggering 81%.
Country of activity TNE 10/11 (ex OxB) TNE 09/10 TNE 08/09% Diff int students 1, Nigeria 22,425 (4,515016,93015,67043%38,851 2, Ghana (1,895) %7,845 3, Kenya 10,980 (1,740)9,0608,75025%13,286 4, Mauritius 8,775 (1,570)6,6306,44036%7,631 5, Egypt 8,720 (8,405)7,4556,66031%11, Zambia 7,355 (1060)6,5556,40015%4, Uganda 6,880 (810)5,7655,60523%3,364 8.South Africa 4,640 (3035)3,9302,87062%6, Zimbabwe 4,545 (290)3,2153,11546%19, Ethiopia 4,380 (810)3,0053,03045%5, Botswana 3,270 (1405)3,0651,80082%8, Malawi 3,145 (410)2,6202,61020%2,053
TNE in Africa HESA statistics indicate traditional forms relatively undeveloped: – Few IBCs – Few franchise or validations – notable exceptions in Ghana, Kenya, Botswana and Nigeria – Most examples are DL/on-line with or without tuition support – Uni of London, Heriot-Watt – Dominated by non-degree awarding bodies: ACCA (80), ABE (160), NCC (60), NCUK
Finding Partners Match aims and values: Public sector – research, training, capacity- building etc – but depending on policy environment little incentive for franchise etc. But, for feeder colleges – good private schools used to teaching that level Sizeable and developing private sector college and university system – many thirsty for partnerships of various types
Regulatory Environment Patience, resilience, willingness to engage and develop relationships, willingness to work with local strategic priorities Not a significant problem for foundation level programmes or programmes that don’t lead to a degree (ABE, NCC, NCUK) One of explanations of on-line/tuition support model
Academic Quality Key concern – fear of degree mills. Clearly issue: recent eg of University of Wales indicates what can go wrong. Always a potential for franchise/validation programmes Easiest method to guarantee the fundamental: comparability of standards is to adopt the London Uni, ABE, Heriot-Watt approach – curriculum, assessments and marking by the awarding body.
But, recent examples show it is possible: Coventry University – demonstrates huge numbers possible for right programmes in right institution and pricing Sunderland in Kenya Kaplan International College in Lagos Right partners, long-term view from outset, investment in quality and partner development
Case Study: KICL CNAU – delivers first year of programme with guaranteed progression – range of top quality partners Invested in premises Worked closely with authorities Academics with international qualifications Quality regime based on module leader in NEU responsible (in collaboration) for curriculum and assessment
180 students – many from Amnesty programme and academically mixed Many operational/academic culture challenges – need for adaptation to local requirements Created an environment where students developed remarkably quickly 160 were able to complete the programme – 89% - and 100% visa success rate Chose a wide range of majors…not 70% business. Tracking their progress through CNAU feedback has been extremely positive