In 2007 and early 2008 most regional airlines had difficulty filling new hire classes!
2007 ASA Statistics Only filled 9 of 25 classes in 2007 Why? Not enough pilots Why? All regional airlines were hiring Most were growing Upgrade time
Great Screening Process 96 screening questions related to what we are looking for in an applicant
In spite of our screening 35% of the applicants cancelled, rescheduled or no showed the interview 33% were rejected in the interview process
Results of low supply Some regionals had a 50%* failure rate ASA had a 2.5% failure rate until Sept 07 Filled classes in fall 07 and spring 08 but made mistakes Failure rate increased to 4%
Last 6 classes Average –Total hoursMulti-engine hours –1017149 –969360 –825157 –918119 –729193 –47658
Next Hiring Spree Incredibly important to hire –A great employee –A great pilot
RFP World Contract with majors Many up for renewal within the next 5 years To win a RFP Run a good airline - CF, D0, A0, A14 Passenger survey Cost competitive Must hire a great employee
2009/2010 Trend “The economy always comes back” “Expect last half of 2009 to see some improvement” “Unheard of government intervention in US and around the world to help the economies” “Fuel prices are down from last summer” “Capacity reduced” “Capacity cuts due to fuel prices came at perfect timing for falling ticket demand” “Even with an 8 – 12% revenue decline some airlines will turn a profit in 2009”
Trend - Continued Will continue at a slow pace –some companies are still hiring Improve as year goes on Majors could be hiring in 2010 But Watch for another pilot shortage
Error 1 How many of the 89,600 pilots obtaining their commercial license were from foreign countries and will never fly in the US?
Error 2 How many pilots of the 108,600 pilots hired were counted twice or possibility three times? Suggest errors cancel out
Error 3 How many pilots were hired by corporations that are not counted?
Age 65 Rule By December 2012 we’ll start seeing the effects of age 65. preliminary results show 15,000 in 10 years reach age 65 –Additional ? % will be lost due to medicals –How many retire at age 60? –Add regional airline pilot retirements
Next 10 Years “There is no reason to believe the industry will not average hiring 10,000 pilots a year over the next decade.”
Prediction! Prediction! Within 2 years of the time the major airlines start hiring we’ll have another pilot shortage. new student starts!Another key reason for shortage– new student starts!
Student starts? Have you checked with major aviation universities and flight schools in America today? –How many new students do they have? –How many students will fly in America when finished with training? –Flight schools out of business in the last few years?
Why the drastic decline? Exaggerated negative news Cost of flight training Ability to obtain a loan – start or complete training 1 st year pay –Repay student loans – 10 to 30 yr pay out –House payment Chance of furlough
What we need to do? Encourage young pilots – high schools, work as team with majors Visit and encourage Aviation Universities Visit and encourage Major Flight Schools Work with OBAP and ACE program Work with Women in Aviation Down time now
Share good news Some airlines still hiring Economy runs in cycles Growth after down cycle Estimated number of pilots to be hired in next decade Equipment they will fly in the future
What a great job we have in the airline industry. –Seniority system –Days off –Travel –Salaries –Fun
Encourage students! Study hard Stay away from drinking and driving Stay away from drugs Be a cut above Don’t blow a million dollar chance to be an airline pilot
More we can do Improving selection system in our down time –Are we wasting money on selection procedures that are not working? –How do we know they are working? –Do we have a solid feedback loop? –Do we have predictive validity at every decision point in your selection process? –Decisions subjective or objective?
Wasting $$$$ ? How much money is being wasted hiring the wrong employee and/or wrong pilot? How much does it cost the airline over a pilot’s career when you hire someone who is constantly failing checkrides? What does it cost when you hire someone with a poor work ethic?
Trends - Flight time VS FTDs Schools are using more time in FTDs to reduce training cost/lower education cost Will industry stick with straight flight hours requirements for hiring? Interns at ASA Middle ground!
Trend – Final thought If we accept the concept there will be another pilot shortage –We in America need to be looking at MPL –Has been accepted and proven overseas.
Help Any figures or thoughts you have related to: Age 65 Hiring Failures in training MPL Encouraging young pilots Direction of the industry
Questions? Captain Dan Robertson (retired) firstname.lastname@example.org@flyasa.com 404-856-1723 404-702-0574