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Transforming New Zealand's prosperity: the remarkable opportunity for physics Paul Callaghan Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences Victoria University.

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Presentation on theme: "Transforming New Zealand's prosperity: the remarkable opportunity for physics Paul Callaghan Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences Victoria University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Transforming New Zealand's prosperity: the remarkable opportunity for physics Paul Callaghan Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences Victoria University of Wellington

2 Some New Zealand economic history

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4 Pasture research. Strain and breeding Nitrogen fixing role Bush-sickness-cobalt deficiency Integrated pastoral systems The role of phosphate Aerial topdressing The electric fence Milk tankers The science of milk products Mechanised cheesemaking Geoffrey Peren Francis Dry

5 Alpine Zone Tussock Exotic grassland Exotic forest Scrub, wetlands Native forest Settlements, crops year Recent history of New Zealand land cover percent total land area

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9 22 August to 5 October World Health Organisation recommended EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ temperature o C Dunedin September time (hh:mm) 00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00 living room outdoors Sarah Shannon, Bob Lloyd, Jacob Roos and Jan Kohlmeyer

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11 Source: David Bibby, Year Ratio

12 Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average New Zealand 2006 GDP US $106.9 billion Australia 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $33,300 New Zealand 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $26,200 shortfall US$ 29.2 billion OECD-NZ Institute

13 Japan Greece Spain Iceland Canada USA Ireland UK Sweden Italy Germany Belgium France Austria Netherlands Finland Switzerland Australia

14 Japan New Zealand Greece Spain Iceland Canada USA Ireland UK Sweden Italy Germany Belgium France Austria Netherlands Finland Switzerland Australia

15 Japan New Zealand Greece Spain Iceland Canada USA Ireland Sweden Italy Germany Switzerland Australia Belgium, Netherlands Austria Finland UK France prosperity

16 The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March million* Total New Zealand population as at March million* New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200 NZ $45,200 Australia GDP - Per Capita US $33,300 NZ $57,400 shortfall US $29.2 billion OECD-NZ Institute * NZTE

17 Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March million* Total New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million* To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36) = NZ $143,000 New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200 NZ $45,200 Australia GDP - Per Capita US $33,300 NZ $57,400 shortfall US $29.2 billion OECD-NZ Institute * NZTE The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee

18 Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March million* Total FTE New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million* To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36) We need another US $30 billion per annum exports New activity must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee FTE! New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200 NZ $45,200 Australia GDP - Per Capita US $33,300 NZ $57,400 shortfall US $29.2 billion OECD-NZ Institute * NZTE The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee

19 Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion Meat Dairy Fish Fruit and vegetable Other food and beverage Forestry and other primary Metals Manufacturing Tourism Foreign earnings (US$ billion) NZ External Trade Statistics US$ 32 billion

20 Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed Track Namen2n2 Not at all Crowded Slightly Crowded Moderately Crowded Extremely Crowded North Island %% Lake Waikaremoana (GW) Tongariro (GW) UoO dept Tourism Increase tourism by factor of 4?

21 Tourism Tourism expenditure in New Zealand, year ending March 2007 $20.1 billion. (International expenditure $8.8 billion and domestic expenditure $11.3 billion). Tourism’s economic contribution to the New Zealand economy for the year ending March 2007 $14.1 billion of value-added activity or 9.2% of Gross Domestic Product. Employment in tourism in New Zealand for the year ending March 2007 comprised 181,200 FTEs or 9.7% of total employment in New Zealand. NZ $77,814 revenue per employee (direct + indirect) Must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee * Statistics NZ

22 Meet ‘psycho’ for only $7950 Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani

23 0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 Needed for current per capita GDP 200,000100,000300,000 Tourism Revenue per employee FTE of employment

24 0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 Needed for current per capita GDP 200,000100,000300,000 Total NZ Manufacturing Tourism Revenue per employee FTE of employment NZ Manufacturing Exports Food manufacturing Wine

25 0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 Needed for current per capita GDP 200,000100,000300,000 Fonterra Total NZ Manufacturing Tourism Revenue per employee FTE of employment NZ Manufacturing Exports Food manufacturing Wine

26 0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 Needed for current per capita GDP 200,000100,000300,000 Fonterra Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Total NZ Manufacturing Tourism Revenue per employee FTE of employment NZ Manufacturing Exports Food manufacturing Wine

27 Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion Meat Dairy Fish Fruit and vegetable Other food and beverage Forestry and other primary Metals Manufacturing Tourism Foreign earnings (US$ billion) NZ External Trade Statistics US$ 32 billion

28 A handful of slimy algae and lake weed, being pulled out of Lake Rotoiti Photo: Arno Gasteiger The problem with dairy expansion (factor of five)

29 NZ Greenhouse gas emissions

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31 US $ revenues and profits NZ $ 400,000 per employee * *

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34 Environment Industry NZ POR DEN IRL CAN AUST FIN USA BEL MEX TA FR JPN NED SW GER SP UK Agriculture, F and F Our place on the research funding phase diagram Source: David Bibby, IRL, 1998 $9 per kg $3000 per kg

35 Abt Associates report to MoRST New Economy Research Fund New Zealand USA (and nearly everyone else)

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37 $100m $200m $300m $400m $500m $1410m F and P appliances Datacom F and P Healthcare Navico NDA ProvencoCadmus Rakon Gallagher Weta Ltd Tait Electronics Ltd Douglas pharmaceuticals Allied Telesis Methven Tru Test Glidepath Dynamic controls CWF Hamilton Schneider electric Skope industries BCS group Humanware Infinity group NZ Pharmaceuticals TIN100 New Zealand Technology Companies Rank Annual revenue (NZ$)

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39 Beyond the Farm and the Themepark 50 minute documentary TVNZ 7 4,5,6 November 2008

40 Auckland University Press March 2009

41 McMurdo Sound NMR of Antarctic Sea Ice

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43 Mercier, Hunter and C, 2004

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45 Craig Eccles physicist/engineer Robin Dykstra physicist/engineer Science/engineering/business partnership

46 Andrew Coy physicist/businessman CEO Magritek Science/engineering/business partnership

47 One-sided access NMR NZ $150,000 per employee

48 2 MHz Halbach magnet rockcore analyzer

49 10 staff: existing products selling well New 2008 offshore investment (London and New York) $ sales in 2008 $ sales by June 2009 Significant potential for new products Magritek prospects

50 NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009

51 Magritek export sales NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009

52 Magritek export sales NZ Taxpayer return on investment 1993 to 2009

53 Craig Eccles -to ETH Zurich now Magritek Peter Daivis -to ANU now A/Prof, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia Yang Xia - to Cornell now Prof., Oakland University, Detroit, USA Andrew Coy- to KTH, Stockholm now CEO Magritek, Craig Rofe - to UCSF, USA now Onslow College, Wellington Jim Hargreaves - to New Zealand Dairy Research Institute Bertram Manz - to Cambridge Univ., now Magritek Miki Komlosh -to Freiburg University, now NIH, Washington, USA Maria Kilfoil-to Harvard University, now Prof McGill U., Canada Ryan Cormier (PhD)-to, Ottawa, now Physician, Canada Alexandre Khrapitchev-to Cambridge Univ. now Oxford, UK Roger Meder-to QUT, Australia now ENSIS, Australia Maria del Rosario Lopez-Gonzalez-to PDF, U Glasgow, UK. Robin Dykstra - to VUW, co-founder Magritek Antoine Lutti -to PDF at UCL, UK Simon Rogers -to PDF at FORTH, Greece Kate Washburn -to ResLab, Norway PhD students completed

54 World-connected, entrepreneurial, engaged with public Our PhD student obligations

55 Science is a way of looking at the world to try to understand natural phenomena and their causes in a way that is self-consistent and corresponds with reality. Values Evidence-based decisions Peer review as a way of life A rational, if not benign, nature Scepticism as a virtue What numbers mean and what they do not mean Expressing complex ideas with simple clarity Knowledge is not to be feared Professor Lewis Wolpert Scientists as leaders in society

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57 “Rich economies must defend themselves by remaining on the cutting edge of research, moving into new and growing branches, learning from others, finding the right niches, by cultivating and using ability and knowledge. Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise, their sense of identity and commitment to the common weal, their self-esteem, their ability to transmit these assets across the generations.” The one lesson that emerges is the need to keep trying. No miracles, no perfection, no millennium, no apocalypse. We must cultivate a sceptical faith, avoid dogma, listen and watch well, try to clarify and define ends, the better to choose means.”


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